"Sleeper" House Seats

[nhmagic]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

[nhmagic]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.

kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

[nhmagic]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.

kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

Portland is latte liberals for the most part with some working class areas but the burbs are more fiscally conservative and we have some deeply religious rural parts too.

True

[nhmagic]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

Yeah, but you compare her fundraising totals to that of other dem incumbents and its really weak and her spending is fairly high.  No signs up either by the way in key areas she needs them to be in.

[nhmagic]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

I didnt say it was winnable, I posed a hypothetical.

[nhmagic]

Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

Pingree has a ton of money and her opponent doesn't.  Turnout will be decent for Rs because of LePage on the ticket and working class Mainers are going to be coming out in droves to vote against the dems - however, Scontras isn't making any waves primarily because he's out of money.  Some good attention from say Scott Brown or Chris Christie might help - ME's not too far for either of them. I dont think he'll beat her though.
Michaud on the other hand would be vulnerable if Rs took some interest in the race. LePage being on the ticket will definitely help in northern ME.  Jason Levesque needs cash badly and he's got to find a way to do that on the quick.  This state needs some polling done.