"Sleeper" House Seats

[Dgov]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

[Dgov]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

You gotta be kidding me.  That district is majority Hispanic and Hispanics strongly oppose the law.

Umm, no.  In fact, significantly more Hispanics want a version of this law in their state than voted for McCain in 08. (37 compared to 29).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1460&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

And the law has had almost no change in partisan voting trends for any ethnic group, despite how many people want to shout from the bleachers that this will "Doom the Republican's chances of Hispanic support"

http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=358597&CategoryId=12395

So throw in that this district covers the Pinal country region the Drug cartels have more or less taken over by force, and that he's been calling for people to boycott his own state over the issue, and i certainly see this as a sleeper pickup for the Republicans in 2010.

[Dgov]

TX-27 should be on the radar.  It's a Hispanic-majority district, but Ortiz only won 56% there in 2008 despite being a 28-year incumbent, and it only voted 50% for Obama in 2008.  Bush also won the district substantially.  No idea about the challenger though.

[Dgov]

Indiana 7th could also be another one. The district swung heavily to Obama, but Carson does have a decent challenger, and his mother didn't rack up huge margins in the district when she ran.

http://www.drmarvinscottforcongress.com/

Considering the District takes up most of Marion County, which Bush both Narrowly lost and Narrowly won in his 2 elections, I'd have to say you're right that this is at least on the radar.  The problem is that the parts of Marion county not in the district are between 70-80% Republican, which drives up the Dem margins in the district, and that the area has been trending Democratic for some time now.  Carson won 65% of the Vote here in 2008, and Cook has it rated as D + 14, which is roughly on par with Cuyahoga county in Ohio.  Republican's aren't winning here anytime soon.