How Would the 2006 Midterms Have Turned Out if Kerry won in 2004?

[Bo]

For me, it's honestly hard to say. The GOP could claim to have been winning Iraq before Kerry took over and screwed up the whole mission. Kerry could claim that the GOP is blocking his plans for withdrawal from Iraq, though, which he could have claimed was what he was elected to do. Also, I think there would have still been a lot of corruption cases within the GOP in 2006. If I had to guess, I'd say GOPers Talent, Burns, Allen, and Chafee retain their seats, while Dems gain Santorum's and DeWine's seats, in addition to retaining all of their previously held seats. Thus, I'd say the Senate would have been a D+2 gain while the House would have probably been an R+10 gain. However, I could see the Democrats making gains in the House if they play the Iraq card correctly against the GOP. Any thoughts on this?

[Derek]

Jim Webb would have lost too. The GOP would have picked up about 10 seats in the house and stayed the same in the senate. Most midterm elections are beneficial to the party out of the white house.

[Bo]

Anyone?

[hcallega]

The Democrats would pick up Pennsylvania and probably Ohio, as both of those victories had a lot to do with the local candidates (very strong Democrats and very weak Republicans).

[Kevin]

The Democrats would pick up Pennsylvania and probably Ohio, as both of those victories had a lot to do with the local candidates (very strong Democrats and very weak Republicans).

I see the same out come also, however I think the Dems would have picked MT up also. I think think Chafee, Talent, and Allen would have survived also. However, I could see the Republicans flipping at least three seats also, I think the Republicans could have defeated Bob Menendez in New Jersey, and I think Steele could have very well pulled it off in Maryland since Ehrlich most likely would have won reelection over O'Malley or any other candidate's the Democrats could have fielded. I could possibly see the Republicans picking up Washington and/or Florida(with a different candidate against Bill Nelson)

The House and Gubernatorial races would have been complicated with both parties gaining and trading losses.

[Thomas D]

This is my Senate map

Without Bush dragging him down Liebermen wins the Dem primary and the general.
RI, MO, VA, MT and OH All stay with the GOP and The GOP wins In NJ due to the scandals involving Menendez.

[Bo]

The Democrats would pick up Pennsylvania and probably Ohio, as both of those victories had a lot to do with the local candidates (very strong Democrats and very weak Republicans).

I see the same out come also, however I think the Dems would have picked MT up also. I think think Chafee, Talent, and Allen would have survived also. However, I could see the Republicans flipping at least three seats also, I think the Republicans could have defeated Bob Menendez in New Jersey, and I think Steele could have very well pulled it off in Maryland since Ehrlich most likely would have won reelection over O'Malley or any other candidate's the Democrats could have fielded. I could possibly see the Republicans picking up Washington and/or Florida(with a different candidate against Bill Nelson)

The House and Gubernatorial races would have been complicated with both parties gaining and trading losses.

MT was very close in RL, so I doubt Burns would have lost if Kerry won in '04. Maybe NJ flips, but I think anti-war sentiment was too strong there for a pro-war Republican to have won. Kerry could have said that he needs more Democrats in Congress to end the war and allow a timetable for withdrawal to pass. I think that argument would have worked with many voters, since the war would have been very unpopular by late 2006 and I still see the GOP being the pro-war party with Kerry as President. MD and WA were too Democratic and again, the anti-war sentiment would have probably been too large there for pro-war Republicans to win (same as with NJ). Maybe the GOP could have picked up FL, but only with a different candidate. Harris was just too polarizing and didn't know how to run a good campaign.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I guess Democrats still would take the House, even if much, much narrower.

As of Senate, Chafee survives without anti-GOP sentiments due to his huge popularity. Even God couldn't save Santorum and with all torubles, GOP would go down in Ohio races.

No pickups in Virginia and Missouri.

[N.i.K.]

I guess Democrats still would take the House, even if much, much narrower.

As of Senate, Chafee survives without anti-GOP sentiments due to his huge popularity. Even God couldn't save Santorum and with all torubles, GOP would go down in Ohio races.

No pickups in Virginia and Missouri.

Why would Democrats take the house? Normally in off-election years the party in power loses seats. I would guess that while it wouldn't be as massive as the GOP loss, that it still would hae happened.

[Derek]

He would've won by almost the same amount as he did in 1988.

[Bo]

He would've won by almost the same amount as he did in 1988.

Wrong thread.

[DS0816]

If John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) would have won the presidency in 2004, his Electoral College victory would have been the upper-300s in electoral votes (winning in the upper-single digits, and taking John Edwards's home state of North Carolina; probably a 10-point shift).

Having mentioned that, Election 2004 would have ushered in Congressional Democratic victories to win back the House in that election plus increase the Senate with Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-South Dakota) not having been unseated.

2006 midterms would've depended on the political climate. But one thing's certain: it is rare for a president to see his party gain seats in either the House or Senate in the second year of his first term. Again, it "would've depended on the political climate."

[Ike56]

If John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) would have won the presidency in 2004, his Electoral College victory would have been the upper-300s in electoral votes (winning in the upper-single digits, and taking John Edwards's home state of North Carolina; probably a 10-point shift).

Having mentioned that, Election 2004 would have ushered in Congressional Democratic victories to win back the House in that election plus increase the Senate with Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-South Dakota) not having been unseated.

2006 midterms would've depended on the political climate. But one thing's certain: it is rare for a president to see his party gain seats in either the House or Senate in the second year of his first term. Again, it "would've depended on the political climate."

You're assuming a popular vote win nationwide, and thus a swing of at least 1.5 to 2 million in the overall popular vote.  I recall Ohio being won by something like 120,000 votes for Bush, so a theoretical shift of just 60,000-65,000 would have won the whole thing for Kerry.  Thus, the rest of the election could have easily turned out exactly the same (save for a couple of House or state seats in Ohio that "could" have turned had Kerry pulled in just a few more votes his way.