UK to kill decennial Population Census

[Tender Branson]

National census to be axed after 200 years

The Census, the official population count carried out by the Government, is to be scrapped after more than 200 years, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

By Christopher Hope, Whitehall editor
Published: 11:20PM BST 09 Jul 2010

Francis Maude, the Cabinet Office minister, said the Census, which takes place every 10 years, was an expensive and inaccurate way of measuring the number of people in Britain.

Instead, the Government is examining different and cheaper ways to count the population more regularly, using existing public and private databases, including credit reference agencies.

It will represent a historic shift in the way that information about the nation’s population, religion and social habits is gathered.

The suggestion is likely to be approved by Cabinet next week. It will be too late to prevent the next Census on March 27, 2011 from going ahead, although Mr Maude said he was looking at ways of reducing the £482million cost.

Britain has carried out a Census every decade since 1801, with the exception of 1941 during the Second World War.

It is the only time that everybody in the country is counted, and is used by the Government to determine spending priorities and track population movements.

Academics, charities and religious organisations all rely on information gathered in the Census as it asks wide-ranging questions relating to people’s households, nationality, faith and marital status.

The information is also a significant source of research for future generations. The online publication last year of the 1911 Census proved hugely popular, with three million people accessing the database within its first few months.

Mr Maude, who has responsibility for the Census, told The Daily Telegraph that the Government was looking for a “fundamentally” better way of doing it. “There are, I believe, ways of doing this which will provide better, quicker information, more frequently and cheaper,” he said.

Mr Maude said Britain needed a new way to keep track of the population because the Census was often inaccurate and out of date. About 1.5million households failed to fill in their forms in 2001.

The information from the 2011 Census will not be published until the middle of the following year, at the earliest. By that time, many of the people whom the Census had counted would have moved or died.

Mr Maude said the Census was “out of date almost before it has been done” and was looking at ways to count the population more frequently — perhaps every five years — using databases held by credit checking firms, Royal Mail, councils and Government.

“This would give you more accurate, much more timely data in real time. There is a load of data out there in loads of different places,” he said.

Mr Maude said he hoped that the new way of counting the population would be less intrusive. Questions for next year include the name, sex and date of birth of any visitors staying overnight.

He was also examining ways to save money on the 2011 Census, which will be organised by the Office for National Statistics. However, Labour had already spent £300million on the project.

It is common practice around the world for governments to carry out a census and the Government is required by European Union law to count the population regularly.

Geoffrey Robertson QC, a constitutional barrister, said the news was “regrettable” since some sort of count had been carried out by the monarch or government for almost 1,000 years.

“Future historians will be less able to interpret Britain in the Cameron/Clegg era as a result of this decision — maybe that is the reason for it,” he said.

David Green, a director of the Civitas think tank, said the decision was “a terrible mistake”. “It is a question of whether the alternatives are reliable,” he said. “The Census is expensive but I think it is worth the money for the historic continuity.”

Under the 1920 Census Act, citizens can be cautioned under the Police and Criminal Evidence Act and fined £1,000 for failing to answer questions. However, the powers have not been properly enforced previously. In 2001 just 38 people were fined for not filling in forms.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7882774/National-census-to-be-axed-after-200-years.html

[k-onmmunist]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a contemporary historian, I'm appalled. The issue isn't so much the population statistics, but everything else.
Still, it might be possible to stop this because of the mania for genealogy and because the census targeted for elimination is not for eleven years.

[Phony Moderate]

The National Government have just lost the nerd vote. 

[afleitch]

I can see their point. (as one of those 'nerds' that looks at things like that) Population projection methods are pretty robust. By the time the census is completed and tabulated it's of limited use. And of course the personal data isn't released for 100 years.

But I like filling out the form

[k-onmmunist]

Defending the Tories, again?

[afleitch]

Defending the Tories, again?

Yeah...just like you used to do!

Actually no; I can see their point of view on this given how most bodies rely on collecting their own population stats anyway like the General Records Office of Scotland etc.

[k-onmmunist]

I was never a Tory. Try again.

[afleitch]

I was never a Tory. Try again.

Ah, but 'defending the Tories' is not the same as being one. I said that in the past you defended them. And indeed you did.

[Democratic Hawk]

I was never a Tory. Try again.

Ah, but 'defending the Tories' is not the same as being one. I said that in the past you defended them. And indeed you did.

Often we do make errors of judgement; indeed, following the 'Crash of 2008' - which marked a crisis of laissez-faire - I've nowt but disdain for the "cult of neoliberalism"

Come back the Golden Age of Capitalism because for most of us it trumps anything that came before or since

[Bo]

How about they look for ways to make the Census more efficient instead of killing it altogether? The British Census is a tradition, just like the U.S. one, and thus should be maintained.

[Barnes]

The Axis of Evil strikes again.

[k-onmmunist]

I was never a Tory. Try again.

Ah, but 'defending the Tories' is not the same as being one. I said that in the past you defended them. And indeed you did.

I've always slammed them for their record on abortion and gay rights. That isn't really defending.

[King]

lol.  Could you imagine the teabagger response if the US tried to scrap the census for a count based on financial records from credit agencies?


Makes sense, though.

[Cubby]

Its a terrible idea and I hope it is not approved. Not having a Census is nothing other than a step backwards for any country.

IIRC there were plans to have a census at different points in the 18th Century, but the monarchy and/or Parliament were afraid the statistics would be useful for Britain's enemies (namely the French, but probably others too)

I can't believe this is seriously being considered in the same country that managed to conduct a census in the Subcontinent back in 1871, before any type of computer had been invented.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I'm glad it's written right into our constitution. 

This will be a great mistake, I think... if for nothing other than inconsistency.

[Tender Branson]

It´s not like the UK is the only country that is killing the traditional Census. Many other countries in Europe have already given up the traditional method of a full population count by census takers and will already conduct their next Census by using population registers.

In Germany, Austria and Switzerland this will be the case in 2010 and 2011 and for this, the so called Melderegister (residence registers) will be checked and double-checked, as well as social security registers, housing registers and school registers.

Of course, this is not possible in the US, as the US has no mandatory registration when people move from one city to another. So they have to keep the traditional and more costly Census. The new Census method is quite (cost) effective and has been tested in various trial Censuses here.

If the US would introduce a registration system in each town and conduct a Census based on that register, the cost of the Census would not amount to 15 Bio. $, but more like 3-5 Bio. $

[Cubby]

It´s not like the UK is the only country that is killing the traditional Census. Many other countries in Europe have already given up the traditional method of a full population count by census takers and will already conduct their next Census by using population registers.

In Germany, Austria and Switzerland this will be the case in 2010 and 2011 and for this, the so called Melderegister (residence registers) will be checked and double-checked, as well as social security registers, housing registers and school registers.

Of course, this is not possible in the US, as the US has no mandatory registration when people move from one city to another. So they have to keep the traditional and more costly Census. The new Census method is quite (cost) effective and has been tested in various trial Censuses here.

If the US would introduce a registration system in each town and conduct a Census based on that register, the cost of the Census would not amount to 15 Bio. $, but more like 3-5 Bio. $

I didn't know other European countries were going to do this too.

Like Snowguy said, its in the Constitution, which means its nearly impossible to change unless there is strong approval to do so across all ideologies. We can't have a registration system, it would be overwhelmingly opposed, by Democrats as well.

[Tender Branson]

It´s not like the UK is the only country that is killing the traditional Census. Many other countries in Europe have already given up the traditional method of a full population count by census takers and will already conduct their next Census by using population registers.

In Germany, Austria and Switzerland this will be the case in 2010 and 2011 and for this, the so called Melderegister (residence registers) will be checked and double-checked, as well as social security registers, housing registers and school registers.

Of course, this is not possible in the US, as the US has no mandatory registration when people move from one city to another. So they have to keep the traditional and more costly Census. The new Census method is quite (cost) effective and has been tested in various trial Censuses here.

If the US would introduce a registration system in each town and conduct a Census based on that register, the cost of the Census would not amount to 15 Bio. $, but more like 3-5 Bio. $

I didn't know other European countries were going to do this too.

Like Snowguy said, its in the Constitution, which means its nearly impossible to change unless there is strong approval to do so across all ideologies. We can't have a registration system, it would be overwhelmingly opposed, by Democrats as well.

Yeah, some countries like Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Denmark, Finland etc. have already switched to this system and Germany, Austria, Switzerland will follow this and next year.

Here´s the map:



The German Census page also has a good explanation in English on how a register-based Census is working and what the benefits are:

Method and procedure of the register-based census

The census of 2011 will be conducted in Germany with a new method using mainly the data stored in the registers of the administrative authorities. These will mainly be the population registers of the municipalities and the registers of the Federal Employment Agency. Thus it will be possible to do without a survey covering all inhabitants, as is common with a traditional population census. Data which cannot be extracted from administrative registers (information on education, training and occupation) will be collected by an interview-based sample survey. Here, the citizens can provide their information either orally to the interviewer, online or by mail. Those interviews also fulfil the task of checking the data quality of the registers. The data on buildings and dwellings – there are no relevant registers in Germany – will be collected by mail from all owners.

Register-based censuses stood the test in other countries, especially in Scandinavia. The bodies of official statistics in Germany thoroughly tested the new register-based census method from 2001 to 2003. The result was that data from the various registers can be matched by that method, and inaccuracies in the registers can be adjusted statistically. Thus the register-based census will provide reliable results.

Why will there be a change of methodology?

Former population censuses in Germany were complete enumerations. This means that the data required were obtained direct from the entire population in personal interviews or by questionnaire. That method produces very accurate results with a detailed subject-matter and regional breakdown and makes it possible to analyse the data in the light of very different questions. But traditional population censuses surveying all citizens also are expensive and involve much effort. To conduct the 1987 population census, some 500 000 enumerators were in the field in the former territory of the Federal Republic alone. Thanks to the change in methodology, surveying the entire population will not be necessary in the 2011 census with results being as reliable. This lowers the burden on the citizens and reduces the financial means required. According to current estimates, the costs of a largely register-based census in 2011 will be only about one third of the expenditure that would have to be made for a traditional population census in reunified Germany.

[Tender Branson]

2011 census process

Census day, the day for which population and dwelling data are collected, will probably be in the spring of 2011. As the register-based census will use population registers and be largely computed-based, one would think that it should not take long until the results and thus the new official population and dwelling figures will be available for Germany. As a matter of fact, it will take nearly two years. The various stages of work and their duration will be described briefly in the following.

Delivery of excerpts from population registers

There is no central population register in Germany; as a rule, the municipalities are responsible for maintaining the registers. On census day, they will deliver excerpts from the population registers containing the data required to the statistical offices. There the data records received will be checked for completeness, i.e. for possibly missing characteristics. It will take some time until all deliveries will have been received and inconsistencies will have been clarified with the residents’ registration offices. Only then can the checks for multiple registration begin. That procedure serves to find out whether persons are registered with several main places of residence in Germany. Then the data records of the statistical offices will be corrected accordingly. As the procedure is very complex – after all more than 80 million data records have to be compared – several weeks have to be scheduled for that step, too. About three months after census day, the municipalities will send another population register excerpt. It differs from the first one in that it shows also administrative acts which have been relevant before census day but have been included into the population register only after census day, for instance moves. When these corrections will have been included, adjusted population register data will be available which can be merged with the data of the Federal Employment Agency.
Sample survey

Work on the sample survey to be taken at the same time will also start on census day. Several thousand interviewers will use questionnaires to survey about seven to nine percent of the population. That part of the census and subsequent data capture will take several months. When all sample surveys results will be available, they can be compared with the population register data. That comparison serves to determine the error rates by means of which the population register data will be corrected as part of household generating procedure.

Postal census of buildings and housing

Another part of the census will not be conducted by interviewers but questionnaires will be sent by mail to the owners of buildings and dwellings instead. That part is the census of buildings and housing. The about 17.5 million owners of buildings and dwellings will receive the documents some two weeks prior to census day and will be requested to enter into the questionnaire the conditions applying on census day. The responses received by the statistical offices will be checked and captured there. Here queries will be necessary, too – be it that questionnaires have not been filled in completely, be it that the property has changed hands and a questionnaire needs to be sent to the new owner. With a presumed duration of 14 months, the census of buildings and housing will be the longest of the procedures taking place at the same time.

Household generating procedure and completion

With the data from municipalities, from the Federal Employment Agency and from the census of buildings and dwellings, household, employment and housing relationships will be established for every person. The household generating procedure uses the expanded sample survey results and thus the register errors to make statistical adjustments. The result is the final population figures. The procedure will start as soon as the data required are available for a municipality. All in all, the procedure will take about ten months. This means that first results will be available some 24 months after census day. Then results can be published – as a matter of course, confidentiality provisions will be observed.

Evaluation of population registers

Every person moving into a dwelling in Germany has to register with the competent registration office within a short period of time. For that reason, population registers are a very important data source for the register-based census. The basic demographic data such as age, gender, citizenship, marital status and place of residence are obtained from these registers. To identify errors in the population registers, correction procedures have been integrated into the register-based census. Errors occur, for instance, when persons fail to comply with their obligation to register. By means of the various procedures, such errors can be eliminated statistically so that reliable census results will be available in the end.

The municipalities are responsible for the maintenance of population registers, which generally are kept decentrally. The quality of such registers depends not only on the municipalities avoiding errors in handling the registrations but also on the behaviour of citizens. A person may be registered in several municipalities at the same time with sole or main place of residence. Such people would be counted several times by a census taking over the register data without checking them. For the register-based census, the statistics authorities will therefore check for duplicates with the help of the »key characteristics« such as gender, date of birth, place of birth/country of birth, surname/birth name and first names. The duplicates identified, for instance data of persons with several main places of residence, but also data of persons who have registered with secondary place of residence only will be adjusted statistically. However, these findings will not be passed back to the registration authorities of the municipalities as according to the 1983 population census judgment of the Federal Constitutional Court, the statistical offices are not allowed to pass on personal micro data to the administration.
Errors in population registers are adjusted statistically

Studies on the quality of population registers prepared as part of the 2001 census test showed that the registers contain also data on persons who do no longer live at the address stored. The reason may be that they have moved to a foreign country without deregistering or that they have moved to another dwelling and not registered yet at their new place of residence.

Even if the statistics authorities manage to count part of these »laggards« for census purposes at a later time by evaluating population registers, persons will be left who do no longer live at the place indicated and whose whereabouts are unknown on census day. In addition to these outdated entries there are persons who have not yet registered at their place of residence and are not registered at any other dwelling in Germany (entries missing in the population register).

According to the 2001 census test, there was an average rate of outdated entries of 4.1 percent for the population registers maintained by the municipalities, which can be lowered to an average rate of outdated entries of 1.8 percent by means of the processing and correction procedures integrated into the register-based census (checking for duplicates and household generating procedure). In comparison, there was an average rate of missing entries of 1.7 percent. As there are considerable differences between municipalities as regards the rates of outdated entries and of missing entries, the numbers of inhabitants derived from population registers need to be corrected once more, in the census this will be done by supplementary sample surveys.

http://www.statistik-portal.de/Statistik-Portal/en/Zensus/en_methode.asp

[doktorb]

I am a member of the LibDems, for the record...

And I support scrapping the Census.

There are two main reasons; the cost, is the top and tail of it. I remember the utter shambles that was the previous census, a state I know will be replicated next year. It is a costly exercise which the nation cannot afford.

The Gvt. is right, too, to point out that there are existing ways to check population figures without requiring people to sit around telling the State how many radiators and lodgers and which God they worship on a given day in November or whatever it is.

When we're faced with such a national debt and such an economic hardship, anything which can bring down the figures should be welcomed.

On the point of genelogy and family tree research, etc, I really think such flimsy reasoning does nothing to help the cause. Birth and death certificates are enough to check family trees.