Pence to visit Iowa again; Gingrich to SC; Pawlenty to IA and NH

[Mr. Morden]

Pence has generated very little presidential buzz, though he's actually been fairly prolific in visits to early primary states.  Here's another one:

http://iowaindependent.com/38519/pence-making-iowa-visit-to-address-ralph-reeds-organization

Meanwhile, Gingrich is visiting SC for the second time this year:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/07/09/1722685/gingrich-to-test-2012-waters-in.html

and Pawlenty is visiting NH and Iowa after just having gotten back from SC:

link

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/wire/chi-ap-mn-pawlenty-iowa,0,4251063.story

You wouldn't know it from his travels, but, unlike Gingrich or Romney or Johnson or Pataki, Pawlenty actually has a day job.  Despite, he's doing more early primary state visits than anyone else.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm calling Pence the dark horse Republican whose potential to pull an upset in the primary is the most overlooked.

Wins in November by Angle and Rand Paul could embolden the Teabaggers to reject the imperfect conservative Romney in favor of a more "pure" conservative.  Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich are the best known and positioned alternatives to Romney but there's a pretty strong opportunity cost to all of their candidacies as well as major flaws in each.  I could see two or all three taking a pass on 2012.  I don't think Pence will run if Daniels does but I think Daniels is a long shot to do so.  If Pence's competition to become the early and major alternative to Romney is limited to people like Pawlenty, Thune, Santorum, Johnson, Barbour, he's well-poised to pass more "tests" than anyone else/generate more enthusiasm among the two demographics needed to separate himself- social conservatives and (despite his long record in congress) anti-government Teabaggers.

[Beet]

Do any of these candidates get any grassroots support, i.e., if you browse on sites like Free Republic or RedState, are there people who passionately support them? I'm really grasping at straws here to explain Morden's behavior in posting all these threads, when the nominee is so obviously Palin. Show me some grassroots support for someone else and it might seem to make some sense.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm really grasping at straws here to explain Morden's behavior in posting all these threads, when the nominee is so obviously Palin.

Lol.  The campaign hasn't even really started yet.  If you think the 2012 GOP primary campaign is already over, then you're free to ignore all the threads about the campaign here and come back in March 2012 when the general election campaign gets underway.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm calling Pence the dark horse Republican whose potential to pull an upset in the primary is the most overlooked.

I'd probably agree with that.  Not really sure what Pence's intentions are.  From what I've read, he no longer seems interested in climbing the leadership ladder in the House, even if the GOP wins the House this November.  He may very well opt out of any leadership position in the next Congress, regardless of which party wins control.  He'll probably run for either president, governor or senator (Lugar's seat, if Lugar retires).  I honestly have no idea which of those he goes for.

[Yelnoc]

I'm calling Pence the dark horse Republican whose potential to pull an upset in the primary is the most overlooked.

I'd probably agree with that.  Not really sure what Pence's intentions are.  From what I've read, he no longer seems interested in climbing the leadership ladder in the House, even if the GOP wins the House this November.  He may very well opt out of any leadership position in the next Congress, regardless of which party wins control.  He'll probably run for either president, governor or senator (Lugar's seat, if Lugar retires).  I honestly have no idea which of those he goes for.

I'm going to guess either Senator or Governor.  He's only 51, so really he could be setting himself up for a run in 2016 or 2020 (depending on who wins 2012).  A lot of it is dependent on what Daniels does.

[Beet]

I'm really grasping at straws here to explain Morden's behavior in posting all these threads, when the nominee is so obviously Palin.

Lol.  The campaign hasn't even really started yet.  If you think the 2012 GOP primary campaign is already over, then you're free to ignore all the threads about the campaign here and come back in March 2012 when the general election campaign gets underway.

You didn't answer the question. I'll repeat: Do any of these candidates get any grassroots support, i.e., if you browse on sites like Free Republic or RedState, are there people who passionately support them?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm really grasping at straws here to explain Morden's behavior in posting all these threads, when the nominee is so obviously Palin.

Lol.  The campaign hasn't even really started yet.  If you think the 2012 GOP primary campaign is already over, then you're free to ignore all the threads about the campaign here and come back in March 2012 when the general election campaign gets underway.

You didn't answer the question. I'll repeat: Do any of these candidates get any grassroots support, i.e., if you browse on sites like Free Republic or RedState, are there people who passionately support them?

Probably not.  But:

1) The campaign has barely started.

2) The GOP presidential nomination isn't determined by teenagers posting on Free Republic.

Look, bottom line is, I don't see how anyone can say that "the nominee is so obvioiusly Palin" at this stage, 17 months before anyone votes, especially after we've just had two successive presidential nomination contests (the Dems in 2004 and the GOP in 2008) in which the eventual nominee was someone who nearly everyone said had virtually no chance just 6 weeks before Iowa.  Especially when she doesn't match the profile of previous GOP presidential frontrunners.

In any case, we'll see what happens.  A year from now, either she'll be running or she won't.  And if she's running, we'll have a much better idea of whether her campaign is taking off or not.  Until then, I'm sure there will be many threads here about candidates other than Palin.  I hope there won't be too many that are derailed by "Why are you people bothering to talk about candidates not named Sarah Palin?".

[Derek]

Pence reminds me more of a VP candidate. If he were running, I'm not sure he'd be running for senate unless of course it's something to fall back on after losing as VP. As for the presidential candidate, it's rare to see someone run for senate for the first time just 2 years before they run for the white house.

[exopolitician]

Pence is whatever. Gingrich though....hah.

[Beet]

I'm really grasping at straws here to explain Morden's behavior in posting all these threads, when the nominee is so obviously Palin.

Lol.  The campaign hasn't even really started yet.  If you think the 2012 GOP primary campaign is already over, then you're free to ignore all the threads about the campaign here and come back in March 2012 when the general election campaign gets underway.

You didn't answer the question. I'll repeat: Do any of these candidates get any grassroots support, i.e., if you browse on sites like Free Republic or RedState, are there people who passionately support them?

Probably not.  But:

1) The campaign has barely started.

2) The GOP presidential nomination isn't determined by teenagers posting on Free Republic.

Look, bottom line is, I don't see how anyone can say that "the nominee is so obvioiusly Palin" at this stage, 17 months before anyone votes, especially after we've just had two successive presidential nomination contests (the Dems in 2004 and the GOP in 2008) in which the eventual nominee was someone who nearly everyone said had virtually no chance just 6 weeks before Iowa.  Especially when she doesn't match the profile of previous GOP presidential frontrunners.

In any case, we'll see what happens.  A year from now, either she'll be running or she won't.  And if she's running, we'll have a much better idea of whether her campaign is taking off or not.  Until then, I'm sure there will be many threads here about candidates other than Palin.  I hope there won't be too many that are derailed by "Why are you people bothering to talk about candidates not named Sarah Palin?".

Every year is different. 2004 and 2008 were highly unpredictable years. You generally waited until a campaign season started to make firm predictions, and when campaign season did start, then anyone, like Howard Dean or John McCain, could take off just by taking a unique position or getting lucky.

We are entering a period where politics will be very deterministic. It will not be the meritocrac free-for-all of the past. You can make reasonably accurate predictions over very long periods of time politically. For example, in November 2008 I correctly predicted that there would be a huge upsurge of populism. I wrote:

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Remember, this was 6 days after the national election. The aura surrounding Obama was overwhelming, and as a liberal Democrat I wanted to believe in it. His honeymoon would continue on for another 7 or 8 months. No one in the MSM was saying that populism would be directed against Obama. How was I able to be so accurate? By reading "teenagers posting on [websites]", that's how. By looking at the social media. By looking at the comments on websites. It's not that these comments were anti-Obama at the time, but they were heavily populist, populist in a way that no establishment coterie would please.

It's really amazing that there are still people who think Mark Halperin and the Washington Punditocracy / Establishment has much predictive power. These people are good to go to the details, but they will always miss the big picture. They are in the business of the daily news cycle. It's their bread and butter. But that doesn't make them good at predicting big questions like who will be the Republican nominee, or who will be President come 2013. That's just not their job. Their job is to get eyeballs on them, so that their paymasters can make money off advertising.

It is obvious. Palin is the only one with widespread grassroots support. Unless she suddenly becomes pro-choice or crosses the conservative right on a major policy issue, it's hard to see how any other candidate can build up the traction they need to challenge that. I see no sign of it. Her job is incredibly easy: take the hard line conservative position on every major issue, don't let any of the guys get to the right of her. In case she doesn't get it, her advisors will be telling her this. A 7 year old could do it.

Widepsread grassroots support is what you need to win a Presidential caucus, and a Presidential primary. I was on the Clinton campaign in '07. We learned it the hard way. After New Hampshire we thought we had pulled off the biggest primary upset in the generation. We thought we had pulled off a miracle. I had worked my butt off and lost significant weight from the amount of mental stress only- and I wasn't even on the front line. But after that, we were getting outraised 3-1. The difference? Enthusiasm. He was the outsider, we were not. He had the grassroots activists, we did not. He was the Rock Star, we were merely a Big Name.

But the difference between Palin '10 and these folks '10 is not like the difference between Obama '06 and Clinton '06. Palin is a Rock Star, but she isn't facing any Big Names. All the Big Names in the GOP are discredited by the party's failures. It's more like the difference between Obama '06 and Bayh '06. Remember when Bayh went to New Hampshire in November '06 and didn't draw anyone to this rallies because they were all at the Obama rallies? That's what's going to happen to these guys.

[Yelnoc]

Beet, I think that you're mistaking the crowd that likes Palin and will buy her books and listen to her speak but don't think she is qualified to be president with die-hard Palinites.  Once the primaries open up and a qualified conservative alternative that isn't gaff prone and doesn't have a lot of baggage in their family life, a lot of conservatives will break to him (or her).  Like Mr. Morden said, it is still way too early to call it.

[Bull Moose Base]

Dear Mister Beet,

I will now refudiate you.  My armchair psychoanalysis leads me to the conclusion you are still traumatized by the insurgent Obama campaign of 2008 that derailed the campaign you were on and continue to live in fear of it happening again.  But Obama is one of the greatest stumpers of all-time and, despite the Right-wing hypocrisy machine freaking over his telepromptiness, in the 2008 campaign was able to discuss policy fluently without a script, debate and interview well, and exuded intelligence.  Palin on the other hand without a script came across as one of the least prepared people to be president in America, including Charlie Sheen.   The chances of her unraveling in a hilarious way are high.  And that's if she even runs which I tend to doubt she herself has decided yet.  If she does, Keith Olbermann will become obsessed with ranting against her, which I agree could help her in a primary.  If she's able not to trip badly, by all means it could lead to the outcome you predict.  But as a politician, she's no Obama and, left to speak off the top of her head, could also implode before our very dropped jaws.

Feel better,
Joementum