Swings by town, 2008, New England

[homelycooking]

Using the outline of a town map of New England that I found somewhere around on the forums, I spent about ten hours on a map comparing 2004 election results with 2008 results. It's complete, but I don't know how to upload it. It's in Microsoft Paint. Can anyone help me? I assure you, you will be rewarded.

[fezzyfestoon]

Ooh exciting!  Go into 'Gallery', choose 'My Images' and then 'Add Image'.  From there it should be easy.

[homelycooking]

There's no "My Images", is that because I haven't posted any images yet?

[minionofmidas]

There's no "My Images", is that because I haven't posted any images yet?

I haven't posted any images either, and I see it. At the very Top Right.

[homelycooking]

I'm sorry, but it's just not there. Whatever, I uploaded it onto the internets, here it is.



Sorry about the colour scale.

Light Red: Swing to Obama 0-4%
Bright Red: Swing to Obama 5-9%
Dark Red: Swing to Obama 10+%


Light Blue: Swing to McCain 0-4%
Bright Blue: Swing to McCain 5-9%
Dark Blue: Swing to McCain 10+%

Note, I uploaded the image to the Gallery for you.  If you turn on Ultimate Profile, you'll see your gallery images on your profile page - or click on the Gallery Link above and look for "my images" link - Dave

[minionofmidas]

Cool.

Sorry about the colour scale.

You are using the only acceptable colour scale.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Damnit, my town swung towards Obama.

[homelycooking]

Most of the McCain swings in Massachusetts are attributable to the "loss-of-the-favorite-son-effect". Since Kerry was no longer on the ticket, I suspect moderate and conservative voters switched to voting Republican.

Crazy swing in Searsburg, VT to McCain. This is the town that voted Perot in 1992, Browne in 2000 (!), Kerry in 2004 and McCain in 2008.

I was surprised by strong swings to McCain in certain towns in Madawaska (extreme northern Maine). This area is strongly Democratic and I suppose an African American from Chicago didn't appeal to white Francophone voters up there in Aroostook County.

My town swung to Obama. It voted for Bush both in 2000 and 2004.

[Hash]

I was surprised by strong swings to McCain in certain towns in Madawaska (extreme northern Maine). This area is strongly Democratic and I suppose an African American from Chicago didn't appeal to white Francophone voters up there in Aroostook County.

Yeah, it's also rather working-class and Blue Dog-type. Also, perhaps the Iraq War and associated French-bashing by the Republicans resulted in an abnormally high Democratic vote in 2004. Still uber-Democratic.

[Verily]

I was surprised by strong swings to McCain in certain towns in Madawaska (extreme northern Maine). This area is strongly Democratic and I suppose an African American from Chicago didn't appeal to white Francophone voters up there in Aroostook County.

Yeah, it's also rather working-class and Blue Dog-type. Also, perhaps the Iraq War and associated French-bashing by the Republicans resulted in an abnormally high Democratic vote in 2004. Still uber-Democratic.

Also, other than Fort Kent, which had only a marginal McCain swing, the towns up there are miniscule. Such small towns often have inexplicable swings as their small size means only one or two voters changing their minds make a big difference (note the big Obama swing in the westernmost Madawaska town as well).

[homelycooking]

That's Allagash (population 277), and it doesn't really resemble culturally or linguistically other Madawaska towns (like St Agatha, Madawaska, Fort Kent etc.) But you're right, and most of the really unusual swings in New England (eastern Maine, for example) occurred because the population of the town is less than 100.

Ex. That little bright blue sliver in Coos County surrounded by crimson and gray is Wentworth's Location, population 44, which recorded 23 votes in 2008. One vote there is 4.35% of the total.

[Ebowed]

Most of the McCain swings in Massachusetts are attributable to the "loss-of-the-favorite-son-effect". Since Kerry was no longer on the ticket, I suspect moderate and conservative voters switched to voting Republican.

Obama had a raw vote margin of victory of 795244 to Kerry's 732691, and considering Kerry's home state advantage, the swings in some of the state are fairly negligible.  For every moderate who voted for their Senator's presidential candidacy, there would be another moderate who voted for Bush and felt repelled by the GOP in 2008 to cancel it out.

The GOP's best shot at winning back a county at the presidential level (which they have not done since 1988) would be Plymouth - much closer under Obama than, say, Gore.

What I find more interesting about MA in 2008 is the western rural section, which if we can use the 2010 Senate special election result as an indicator, is one of the safest parts of the country for Democrats and has gone through a political transformation similar to that of Vermont since the 1960s.  (Though admittedly Hampshire county has generally leaned Democratic)  Certainly it is unusual for the Democrats to have a better standing in the rural portion of a state than elsewhere, which is also seen to a lesser extreme in New Hampshire.

[Verily]

Most of the McCain swings in Massachusetts are attributable to the "loss-of-the-favorite-son-effect". Since Kerry was no longer on the ticket, I suspect moderate and conservative voters switched to voting Republican.

Obama had a raw vote margin of victory of 795244 to Kerry's 732691, and considering Kerry's home state advantage, the swings in some of the state are fairly negligible.  For every moderate who voted for their Senator's presidential candidacy, there would be another moderate who voted for Bush and felt repelled by the GOP in 2008 to cancel it out.

The GOP's best shot at winning back a county at the presidential level (which they have not done since 1988) would be Plymouth - much closer under Obama than, say, Gore.

Looking at the towns in MA that swung towards McCain, it's very obviously Irish unwind from an exceptionally high vote for Kerry. Not "moderate-to-conservative" voters, just low information and ethnically tribal. (You find it in every ethnicity, not singling out the Irish here.)

[tpfkaw]

Pretty surprising that Boston swung towards McCain, and rather sharply.  Then again, he is named "McCain."  Then again again, his opponent was O'Bama.

[Verily]

Pretty surprising that Boston swung towards McCain, and rather sharply.  Then again, he is named "McCain."  Then again again, his opponent was O'Bama.

Boston did not swing to McCain. It is in pink. The heavily Irish and/or white Catholic suburbs to the south and north (Quincy, Saugus, etc.) swung substantially towards McCain.

[tpfkaw]

Pretty surprising that Boston swung towards McCain, and rather sharply.  Then again, he is named "McCain."  Then again again, his opponent was O'Bama.

Boston did not swing to McCain. It is in pink. The heavily Irish and/or white Catholic suburbs to the south and north (Quincy, Saugus, etc.) swung substantially towards McCain.

Oops . . . looked at the map kinda wrong.