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| | |-+  2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town
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Author Topic: 2009 Maine Proposition 1 Referendum by town  (Read 2431 times)
homelycooking
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« on: July 13, 2010, 08:18:17 pm »
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Beautiful map, not-so-beautiful result.

http://a.imageshack.us/img806/7191/maineprop12009.png

Wording on this question is confusing. "Yes" is a vote to repeal gay marriage, and "No" is a vote to let the law stand.

Light Green: 50-60% No
Bright Green: 60-70% No
Dark Green: 70+% No

Light Red: 50-60% Yes
Bright Red: 60-70% Yes
Dark Red: 70+% Yes

I think I'll do some more Maine referenda maps...

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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2010, 08:35:21 pm »
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You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.

Not to mention, if Maine gets a sh**t Republican governor this year, there won't be another shot at it for a while.
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2010, 11:01:42 pm »
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You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.

Not to mention, if Maine gets a sh**t Republican governor this year, there won't be another shot at it for a while.

My impression of the campaign defending gay marriage in Maine that it was much tighter and better organized than the Prop 8 folks in CA -.

I wasn't aware of the ins and outs, but the TV ads produced in Maine were among some of the tightest and well targeted I've ever seen regarding the issue, for example.  From what I read, their organization seemed very spot on too.  Right until the end I sincerely believed that their organizational strength was going to pull them across the finish line

It's just a hard issue to win on referendum -- for now, will be different by 2012 & beyond
« Last Edit: July 13, 2010, 11:04:06 pm by Lunar »Logged

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2010, 01:51:27 am »
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Hey homelycooking, I like your maps a lot, but is there any chance you could use the Atlas coloring system? I would love to see this map with a full color scale.
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2010, 02:10:54 am »
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You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.

Not to mention, if Maine gets a sh**t Republican governor this year, there won't be another shot at it for a while.

My impression of the campaign defending gay marriage in Maine that it was much tighter and better organized than the Prop 8 folks in CA -.

I wasn't aware of the ins and outs, but the TV ads produced in Maine were among some of the tightest and well targeted I've ever seen regarding the issue, for example. From what I read, their organization seemed very spot on too.  Right until the end I sincerely believed that their organizational strength was going to pull them across the finish line

It's just a hard issue to win on referendum -- for now, will be different by 2012 & beyond

They lost it all in the last week. They stupidly filed a complaint against a guidance counselor for appearing in a Yes ad, and not advocating for the ban, but saying that it would be taught in schools. He was suspended from his job, and the newspapers for the last week were dominated by stories about the No side wanting to fire everyone who disagrees with them as well as the conversation being about homosexuality in the schools.


The Gay rights groups have to get it that the demographics are destiny arguments, as much as they make them feel better, are offensive to a large number of people, including those who as a policy matter want equality. By fighting it as a moral issue, but treating dissent as evil, they are worrying a large number of voters that their agenda is not legal but cultural. And the problem is it is. I get tired of people complaining about the Prop 8 ads lying. The ads for the gay marriage bans in Michigan lied about the impact on potential domestic partnerships. The problem with the California ads about kids being taught about gay marriage is that they were true, and the No campaign had no response when that became apparent.

The reason I think Marriage is necessary is that 70% of the law is presumption IE. if someone is married they are presumed to be next of kin, presumed to have power of attorney. That resumption comes not from the law but fromthe same 6000 years of history anti-gay marriage advocates want to protect. You may nominally have all the same rights with civil unions, but but if you have to go to court to 50% of the time to have them recognized then equality is nominal.\|

Its why I hate the moral argument. By making it about morals, you seed the high ground. The problem with separate but equal is not that separate is inherently wrong, but that separate cannot be equal until we have reached a point of acceptance at which the issue is moot anyway.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2010, 11:23:17 am »
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Hey homelycooking, I like your maps a lot, but is there any chance you could use the Atlas coloring system? I would love to see this map with a full color scale.

What's the colour scheme? I'll be glad to redo the map.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2010, 01:55:53 pm »
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You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.

I'm not sure what you're talking about.  Portland, Lewiston and Augusta are all in the same TV market.

What I see is the liberal coast versus conservative interior pattern that we usually see in states like California - well, at least up to Bar Harbor.  The Bangor and Presque Isle TV markets appear to have voted yes (Presque Isle is obvious; Bangor would require an analysis of coast vs. interior to be sure), while the Portland-Auburn DMA seems to have voted no.
 
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homelycooking
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2010, 02:15:51 pm »
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The Bangor and Presque Isle TV markets appear to have voted yes (Presque Isle is obvious; Bangor would require an analysis of coast vs. interior to be sure),

Bangor proper voted no along with Old Town and very liberal Orono. However, the yes votes from the surrounding very conservative towns (between Bangor and Dover-Foxcroft) almost certainly cancelled out Yes' margins in the cities.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2010, 02:35:08 pm »
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The Bangor and Presque Isle TV markets appear to have voted yes (Presque Isle is obvious; Bangor would require an analysis of coast vs. interior to be sure),

Bangor proper voted no along with Old Town and very liberal Orono. However, the yes votes from the surrounding very conservative towns (between Bangor and Dover-Foxcroft) almost certainly cancelled out Yes' margins in the cities.

We'd also have to factor in the coastal towns in the Bar Harbor area, which are in the Bangor TV market.  It's Waldo, Hancock, Washington, Penobscot, Piscataquis and Somerset Counties.

Edit: By my math based on the Bangor Daily News' numbers, Yes won the Bangor DMA with about 58% of the vote and Presque Isle DMA with 73%.  No barely squeaked by in the Portland-Auburn DMA with 50.5%.

What's the one town in Washington County that voted no?  Inidian Township Indian Reservation?  Princeton?
« Last Edit: July 14, 2010, 03:05:01 pm by cinyc »Logged
homelycooking
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2010, 03:08:47 pm »
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That's right, it's Indian Township.

The +70% towns in the Bangor Market are, in order of population,

NO
Orono 9958
Bar Harbor 4117
North Haven 374
Cranberry Isles 201
Isle Au Haut 57

total 14707

YES
Lincoln 5059
East Millinocket 2376
Baileyville 2185
Corinna 1891
Medway 1858
Corinth 1715
Hartland 1660
Howland 1601
Palmyra 1488
St Albans 1400
Enfield 1388
Patten 1371
Sangerville 1219
Greenbush 1064
Charleston 1041
Mattawamkeag 1002
Princeton 990
Bradford 889
Danforth 827
Plymouth 811
Hudson 798
Frankfort 780
Etna 758
Harmony 756
Cutler 728
Garland 713
Beals 695
Lee 686
Parkman 626
Abbot 577
Moscow 572
Verona 558
Staceyville 555
Winn 503
Cambridge 445
Springfield 443
Ripley 434
Chester 433
Passadumkeag 431
Alexander 383
Burlington 322
Baring Plantation 308
Atkinson 306
Charlotte 295
Kingman Township 281
Vanceboro 256
Topsfield 244
Shirley 241
Mount Chase 233
Woodville 225
Prentiss Plantation 205
Lowell 194
Waltham 186
Carroll Plantation 172
Willimantic 164
Waite 132
Edinburg 126
Meddybemps 110
Aurora 109
Caratunk 84
Crawford 83
Webster Plantation 79
Brighton Plantation 74
Highland Plantation 59
Drew Plantation 57
Sebois Plantation 53
Osborn 47
Deblois 44
Beddington 36
Bowerbank 19
Kingsbury Plantation 4

total 48457

I think it's pretty certain that Yes prevailed in the Bangor area.

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2010, 03:18:19 pm »
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Hey homelycooking, I like your maps a lot, but is there any chance you could use the Atlas coloring system? I would love to see this map with a full color scale.

What's the colour scheme? I'll be glad to redo the map.

This is the pallette I created and personally use:


I made it from the one Dave provides, but it includes some colors he uses but doesn't have on his pallette:

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homelycooking
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2010, 04:34:36 pm »
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Thanks very much! Here's the map again.

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7191/maineprop12009.png
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2010, 06:49:22 pm »
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You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.

I'm not sure what you're talking about.  Portland, Lewiston and Augusta are all in the same TV market.

Is TV ads really all that matter in campaigns to you? I was talking about face-to-face community outreach and phonebanks compared to just advertising.
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2010, 01:25:12 pm »
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You would think the results would have been less close by looking at the map. It definitely highlights No on 1's downfall, which was outreach in central Maine. Had they focused on Lewiston and Augusta as much as Portland and the York region, it would have been different.

I'm not sure what you're talking about.  Portland, Lewiston and Augusta are all in the same TV market.

Is TV ads really all that matter in campaigns to you? I was talking about face-to-face community outreach and phonebanks compared to just advertising.

The majority of spending on both sides was for TV and radio ads.  So yes, TV and radio advertising does matter to me most.

According to Ballotopedia, the no side spent 3 times as much on TV and radio ads as they did on mailing and signs, and about 10 times as much as they did on "telephone use".   The disparity for the yes side was even higher - 5 times more than mailing and signs and 1637 times as much as on "telephone use".

Perhaps the nos should have been more respectful of the power of TV advertising and ditched the annoying call centers.
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2010, 02:56:15 pm »
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The majority of spending on both sides was for TV and radio ads.  So yes, TV and radio advertising does matter to me most.

But why should the cost of an item directly correlate to its importance? Direct voter contact, preferably in person, is more effective than tv advertising in general, but it doesn't show up on your balance sheet because you have volunteers doing it instead of having to cut a check to the tv station. Similarly, ground organization on election day and the days leading up to it won't equate to advertising in dollar values alone.

I think it's an especially big leap to say that the mix of campaign efforts, tv vs. call centers, was a factor here, given that it's not as if people have found any combination that leads to a pro-marriage equality outcome in a referendum yet.
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nclib
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2010, 04:50:25 pm »
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Good work, homely. Do you or anyone else can make a list of the towns with the best percentage or numerical margins.
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2010, 09:34:48 pm »
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I was actually thinking Q1 would go down, I actually thought the western interior would be closer to NH's "Live Free or Die" attitude, and the northern and eastern would be mitigated by Canada being nearby (where gender neutral marriage is a settled issue
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homelycooking
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2010, 10:29:46 pm »
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Good work, homely. Do you or anyone else can make a list of the towns with the best percentage or numerical margins.

No problem.

Top 10 Highest Percentages, YES

Glenwood Plantation, 100.0% (5 total votes)
Moro Plantation, 95.2% (21 total votes)
Drew Plantation, 94.4% (18 total votes)
Kingman Township, 93.5% (62 total votes)
Reed Plantation, 90.5% (63 total votes)
Crawford, 87.9% (58 total votes)
Kingsbury Plantation, 87.5% (8 total votes)
Hersey, 87.5% (24 total votes)
Cary Plantation, 86.4% (88 total votes)
Byron, 85.9% (71 total votes)

Top 10 Highest Percentages, NO

Isle au Haut, 88.4% (43 total votes)
Cranberry Isles, 74.8% (115 total votes)
Portland, 73.5% (27,353 total votes)
Orono, 73.2% (4,276 total votes)
North Haven, 72.0% (200 total votes)
Bar Harbor, 71.0% (2,469 total votes)
Cape Elizabeth, 68.4% (5,217 total votes)
Ogunquit, 67.9% (757 total votes)
Yarmouth, 66.4% (4,434 total votes)
Mount Desert, 66.4% (1,116 total votes)

Numerical margins will take a while. I'll do them tomorrow.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2010, 10:32:13 pm by homelycooking »Logged
homelycooking
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« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2010, 08:57:58 am »
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Top 10 Highest Vote Totals, YES

Lewiston 7420
Portland 7250
Bangor 5205
Auburn 4835
South Portland 4174
Scarborough 4162
Biddeford 4129
Augusta 3824
Windham 3807
Sanford 3722

Top 10 Highest Vote Totals, NO

Portland 20103
South Portland 7391
Bangor 6149
Brunswick 5971
Lewiston 5193
Scarborough 4907
Auburn 4128
Saco 4069
Westbrook 3908
Biddeford 3697

Top 10 Highest Vote-Margins, YES

Lewiston 2227
Caribou 1257
Presque Isle 1118
Lisbon 1073
Winslow 826
Houlton 822
Jay 813
Millinocket 802
Lincoln 780
Madawaska 772

Top 10 Highest Vote-Margins, NO

Portland 12853
South Portland 3217
Brunswick 2485
Orono 1982
Cape Elizabeth 1915
Falmouth 1322
Freeport 1156
Bar Harbor 1039
Bangor 944
Wells 926
Kennebunk 825

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