2011 Northern Ireland Elections

[JoeBrayson]

The STV elections in NI should be interesting this time. Would DUP First Minister Peter Robinson stand again and if so would he lose his seat? Would the decline of the UUP/Con - UCUNF continue and would SF overtake the DUP as the party with the largest number of seats for the opportunity for the post of First Minister? Discuss

[doktorb]

Are the Norn Iron elections taking place on the new authorities with thier new composition and boundaries? Or the existing authorities ?

[minionofmidas]

Local authorities have nothing to do with Stormont Elections, so I'm not sure what you're even trying to say.

[Harry Hayfield]

Northern Ireland Elections (Westminster / Stormont) 1997 - 2010
1997 (Westminster) : UUP 33% SDLP 24% SF 16% DUP 14% All 8% UKU 2% PUP 1%
1998 (Assembly) : SDLP 22% UUP 21% DUP 18% SF 18% All 6% UKU 5% Ind Un 3% PUP 3%
2001 (Westminster) : UUP 27% DUP 22% SF 22% SDLP 21% All 4% UKU 2% Ind 1%
2003 (Assembly) : DUP 26% SF 24% UUP 23% SDLP 17% All 4% Ind 3% PUP 1%
2005 (Westminster) : DUP 34% SF 24% UUP 18% SDLP 18% All 4% Ind 2%
2007 (Assembly) : DUP 30% SF 26% SDLP 15% UUP 15% All 5% Ind 2% Green 2%
2010 (Westminster) : SF 26% DUP 25% SDLP 16% UCUP 15% All 6% Ind Un 6% TUV 4% Ind 1% Green 1%

[minionofmidas]

Would DUP First Minister Peter Robinson stand again and if so would he lose his seat?

Almost certainly will stand, and almost certainly will hold the seat. He still took 33% of the vote in the Westminster election after all.

What about losing out to his running mates, though?

[doktorb]

To offer some clarity here, both Assembly and local elections are due in NI next May.

Are the Norn Iron elections taking place on the new authorities with thier new composition and boundaries? Or the existing authorities ?

Given the DUP's opposition to the proposed new authorities, the local elections will be held on the existing boundaries.

Cheers for this, the development of Norn Iron authorities has certainly been a long and winding road.....!

[YL]

The STV elections in NI should be interesting this time. Would DUP First Minister Peter Robinson stand again and if so would he lose his seat? Would the decline of the UUP/Con - UCUNF continue and would SF overtake the DUP as the party with the largest number of seats for the opportunity for the post of First Minister? Discuss

Are the UUP still going to be allied with the Tories?  UCUNF wasn't exactly the biggest success of the 2010 GE...

East Belfast: The GE result suggests that Alliance should have a chance of gaining a second seat, presumably from the DUP.  There were clearly strange things going on there, though.  EDIT: I'd forgotten about the PUP losing their leader, which suggests that that seat will go somewhere else and makes it more likely that Alliance will get a second without the DUP losing out.

South Belfast: I'd guess no change, although the SF seat must be a little bit vulnerable.

West Belfast: The obvious guess is no change, although the DUP won a seat in 2003 and if Nationalist turnout falls or SF don't balance their candidates as well they could get it back.

North Belfast: Can the UUP hold on to their seat?

North Down: Difficult to predict from the GE, given Hermon's personal vote and the DUP's absence.  Is Hermon's ally Alan McFarland going to defend his seat as an independent?

Strangford:  Likely SDLP gain from somebody (helped by boundary changes); the results from last time suggest the DUP, but Alliance are weakened by the boundary changes.  The UUP might also have a chance of getting a seat back, helped by the Iris Robinson scandal.

South Down: The GE results suggest an SDLP gain from the UUP, helped by boundary changes, but I suspect the SDLP are helped by anti-SF tactical voting, so it's probably not that easy.

Lagan Valley: SF are surely stuffed by the boundary changes, and will presumably lose a seat to a Unionist.

Upper Bann: Outside chance of an SF gain.

Newry and Armagh: No change seems likely.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: No change seems likely.

Mid Ulster: No change seems likely.

West Tyrone: I'd expect the SDLP to gain the Independent seat.

Foyle: No change seems likely.

East 'Derry: I'd guess no change; the boundary changes don't quite do enough to make three Nationalist seats likely.

North Antrim: The boundary changes make the SDLP vulnerable; possibly either they or the DUP will lose a seat to TUV, assuming TUV, who will presumably win here if they win anywhere, is still going.

East Antrim: The same boundary changes that harm the SDLP in North Antrim probably give  them (or possibly SF) a seat here.  The UUP look more vulnerable than the DUP.

South Antrim: The boundary changes don't help the Nationalist parties, so the SDLP seat looks vulnerable to the UUP, but as with South Down I'd be cautious about using the GE figures because of tactical voting, in this case against Rev William McCrea.

[JoeBrayson]

Does anybody know if any of the parties have started to announce candidates yet?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No topic dedicated to the Assembly election yet. I'm curious how people think this will turn out. Without polls it's hard to say, but there are never any NI polls.

My feeling is the DUP and SF will each pick up a few seats. APNI should gain enough to qualify for a cabinet post as well. SDLP will lose a seat or two, but the UUP will bleed seats badly.

You can go here http://www.assembly2011.co.uk/ if you wish to submit your own projections. For the Ireland election they offered prizes, perhaps they will here too, we shall see!

[YL]

There was one way back:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=120731.0

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Somebody dun merge them! Anyway, anyone have anything to add?

[RBH]

candidates list out: http://www.eoni.org.uk/index.htm

[YL]

East Belfast could be interesting.  The former PUP leader Dawn Purvis (now independent) is defending her seat, and there's also a new PUP candidate Brian Ervine, brother of their former leader David (who died in 2007).  The Alliance Party are going for two seats, which the General Election result suggests they have a good chance of.  The BNP are also standing; let's hope they sink without trace.  Other parties standing: Socialist Party (NI), Greens, Workers' Party, TUV.

In North Down Sylvia Hermon MP has nominated two independent candidates, Alan McFarland (who is a sitting MLA, and who left the UUP at about the same time she did) and Alan Chambers (who has been around as an independent for years).  A candidate from Lancashire is standing for UKIP.

[RBH]

another new entrant to Northern Ireland politics is the BNP. Which should make the rest of the Unionists look better by comparison. I'm guessing the BNP won't push for uniting communities against immigration.

One Belfast City Council district (Lower Falls) of 5 seats has 5 Sinn Fein candidates v. an SDLP candidate, Workers Party candidate, Socialist candidate, Irish Republican Socialist candidate, and an Eirigi candidate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I dont think that the falls road has any unionists even living there.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

East Belfast could be interesting.  The former PUP leader Dawn Purvis (now independent) is defending her seat, and there's also a new PUP candidate Brian Ervine, brother of their former leader David (who died in 2007).  The Alliance Party are going for two seats, which the General Election result suggests they have a good chance of.  The BNP are also standing; let's hope they sink without trace.  Other parties standing: Socialist Party (NI), Greens, Workers' Party, TUV.

In North Down Sylvia Hermon MP has nominated two independent candidates, Alan McFarland (who is a sitting MLA, and who left the UUP at about the same time she did) and Alan Chambers (who has been around as an independent for years).  A candidate from Lancashire is standing for UKIP.

Purvis is seen as someone that people can work with - even among Nationalists - which is something to say considering that the PUP's military wing and SF's military wing used to shoot at one another. The PUP does not stand a chance in hell of winning anywhere, but Purvis will likely be easily re-elected, likely ahead of some DUPers.

[Јas]

For those unaware (I don't think it's been stated yet), the NI Assembly Elections are PR-STV across the same 18 constituencies used for Westminster elections. 6 MLAs (Members of the Legislative Assembly) are elected from each constituency.


Slugger has some nice graphs on candidates per constituency, incumbents, and candidate gender spreads.

BNP, Alliance and SF are the only parties running more than 25% female candidates.

Candidate Numbers
44 DUP
40 SF
29 UUP
28 SDLP
22 Alliance
12 TUV
  6 Green
  6 UKIP
  4 People Before Profit
  4 Workers’ Party
  3 Socialist Party
  3 BNP
  1 PUP
  1 Procapitalism
15 Independent

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Belfast Telegraph's Northern Ireland vote match

My result:
60% SDLP
58% Alliance
55% UUP
48% SF
44% DUP

I got 60% SF and 60% APNI

[minionofmidas]

I'm a Shinner according to that test.

70% SF
56% SDLP
45% Alliance
43% DUP
33% UUP

Yeah, not really surprised.

[patrick1]

East Belfast could be interesting.  The former PUP leader Dawn Purvis (now independent) is defending her seat, and there's also a new PUP candidate Brian Ervine, brother of their former leader David (who died in 2007).  The Alliance Party are going for two seats, which the General Election result suggests they have a good chance of.  The BNP are also standing; let's hope they sink without trace.  Other parties standing: Socialist Party (NI), Greens, Workers' Party, TUV.

In North Down Sylvia Hermon MP has nominated two independent candidates, Alan McFarland (who is a sitting MLA, and who left the UUP at about the same time she did) and Alan Chambers (who has been around as an independent for years).  A candidate from Lancashire is standing for UKIP.

Purvis is seen as someone that people can work with - even among Nationalists - which is something to say considering that the PUP's military wing and SF's military wing used to shoot at one another.

Guys like David Ervine and Gusty Spence always spoke a lot more coherently to me than the Unionist parties.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Unionism (and for that matter, Nationalism) ain't what it used to be.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

DUP - 35
SF - 28
SDLP - 21
UUP - 14
APNI - 7
OTH - 3

What of this for a projection?

[YL]

DUP - 35
SF - 28
SDLP - 21
UUP - 14
APNI - 7
OTH - 3

What of this for a projection?

Who are the three others: McFarland, Purvis and the North Down Green?

Other than that, that would be a pretty bad result for Unionism.  In 2007 the DUP and the UUP won 54 seats between them (exactly half) and that looked a bad result at the time, and you've got them down to 49.

[bullmoose88]

Alliance 56
DUP 53
UUP 48
SDLP 45
SF 45

[RBH]

Silly Northern Ireland

SF 58%
DUP 56%
Alliance 53%
SDLP 53%
UUP 45%

Apparently I have bridged the divide