Will Hispanics become a major part of the GOP vote?

[Kodratos]

Hispanics have been trending GOP as of late and Bush did very well with them this year. I think something like 56% of Floridian Hispanics voted Bush(although Cubans are irregular), but obviously the most shocking demographic shift on a state level that we saw was in Texas. 59% of Hispanic voters in Texas voted for Bush! Remarkable to say the least. Bush made serious inroads into the south and southeastern areas of Texas, heavily Hispanic areas. Bexar County, where San Antonio is, has more Hispanic voter than any other county in the state I believe. It went for Bush by 11 points, as opposed to the 7 points of the last election.

What do you guys think?

[A18]

I think so, but it'll be nothing like the Democrats and African Americans.

If we implement the guest worker program (and close the border to please conservatives), we might get more hispanic votes in 2006.

[WMS]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NM/P/00/epolls.0.html

VOTE BY RACE         BUSH                                  KERRY    NADER
White (57%)          56% -2(from 2000 results)   43%              1%
African-American (2%)   *   n/a                             *                    *
Latino (32%)        44%  +12(from 2000 results)   56%             1%
Asian (0%)                   *   n/a                               *                  *
Other (9%) [Native Americans?] 33% n/a           65%               *

Bush did VERY well among NM Hispanics...social issues, I'm telling ya...

[Colin]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NM/P/00/epolls.0.html

VOTE BY RACE         BUSH                                  KERRY    NADER
White (57%)          56% -2(from 2000 results)   43%              1%
African-American (2%)   *   n/a                             *                    *
Latino (32%)        44%  +12(from 2000 results)   56%             1%
Asian (0%)                   *   n/a                               *                  *
Other (9%) [Native Americans?] 33% n/a           65%               *

Bush did VERY well among NM Hispanics...social issues, I'm telling ya...

I highly doubt that the remaining 9% are American Indians seeing as Native Americans make up only about .8% of the American population.

[© tweed]

It depends on whether the elections revolve around economic or social issues.

If the 2008 campaign is based on highly divisive moral/social issues, the hispanics will very marginally vote GOP.  but if the economy is shot and that's the main issue, they will go 70/30 for the Democrats.

[they don't love you like i love you]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NM/P/00/epolls.0.html

VOTE BY RACE         BUSH                                  KERRY    NADER
White (57%)          56% -2(from 2000 results)   43%              1%
African-American (2%)   *   n/a                             *                    *
Latino (32%)        44%  +12(from 2000 results)   56%             1%
Asian (0%)                   *   n/a                               *                  *
Other (9%) [Native Americans?] 33% n/a           65%               *

Bush did VERY well among NM Hispanics...social issues, I'm telling ya...

I highly doubt that the remaining 9% are American Indians seeing as Native Americans make up only about .8% of the American population.

they are 9.5% of the population in New Mexico

[they don't love you like i love you]

I predict the GOP will  make slight gains among Hispanics, but this will be offset by more Hispanics overall, so they take up more of the overall vote.

[Sam Spade]

If the GOP gets 40% of the Hispanic vote in future national elections, they will be pretty much unbeatable.

It's the same rule the GOP's had in Texas for a long while.

[Beet]

With 60% of Texas hispanics and 55% of Florida hispanics going for the Republican, even though Bush is from Texas, its a little baffling why "predictions" of the future show the Dems gaining due to the Hispanic vote. As I mentioned in the other thread, Hispanics have already delivered Florida (and thus the Presidency) to Bush twice, yet they've never delivered it to a Democrat. It just shows the folly of relying on demographics rather than actual policies and candidates to win. Sort of an excuse to 'sit back, do nothing, and expect victory'

[muon2]

I agree that social issues are an important way to draw Latino voters. Even Republican economic issues can work well for many Latinos, especially those who have a job and are looking to make a better life for their families.

However, the status of immigration remains a wedge issue in northern states courting Latinos.  In IL many local GOP organizations have been using the "values" message to reach out to Latino voters. That effort is dampened by candidates who then attack the immigrant workers, many of whom arrived illegally. Since these people are often the relatives of Latino voters, those voters then reject the Republican message on other issues, since family values are indeed first for them.

[they don't love you like i love you]

With 60% of Texas hispanics and 55% of Florida hispanics going for the Republican, even though Bush is from Texas, its a little baffling why "predictions" of the future show the Dems gaining due to the Hispanic vote. As I mentioned in the other thread, Hispanics have already delivered Florida (and thus the Presidency) to Bush twice, yet they've never delivered it to a Democrat. It just shows the folly of relying on demographics rather than actual policies and candidates to win. Sort of an excuse to 'sit back, do nothing, and expect victory'

Where's the source of that about Texas? I doubt Bush won a majority or a number close to his statewide number, considering Kerry still won all the counties in the southern tip of the state.

Florida's a special case. The Hispanic vote there leans Republican only because of the Cubans. It can't be compared to the nation on a whole.

[opebo]

With 60% of Texas hispanics and 55% of Florida hispanics going for the Republican, even though Bush is from Texas, its a little baffling why "predictions" of the future show the Dems gaining due to the Hispanic vote.

Well, thats based on the fact that they're mostly very poor.

[Kodratos]

With 60% of Texas hispanics and 55% of Florida hispanics going for the Republican, even though Bush is from Texas, its a little baffling why "predictions" of the future show the Dems gaining due to the Hispanic vote. As I mentioned in the other thread, Hispanics have already delivered Florida (and thus the Presidency) to Bush twice, yet they've never delivered it to a Democrat. It just shows the folly of relying on demographics rather than actual policies and candidates to win. Sort of an excuse to 'sit back, do nothing, and expect victory'

Where's the source of that about Texas? I doubt Bush won a majority or a number close to his statewide number, considering Kerry still won all the counties in the southern tip of the state.

According to MSNBC and FOX News Bush got 60%(59 actually) of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

No, Kerry didn't win all of the counties at the bottom tip of the state, and if you compare the 2000 and 2004 maps you'll see how many border counties switched over.

You have to look over the county by county results. Bexar County(San Antonio), which has one of the highest concentrations of latinos in the country, had a ten point swing to Bush. The same thing occured in Nueces County(Corpus Christi). Houston also swung toward Bush. What leveled the state out was the Dallas area, which swung to the left in several races, including the presidential race.

[jacob_101]

I would be hesitant to believe this exit poll. 

1. In 2000 the exit poll said that hispanic vote in TX was 10%.  4 years later it's 23%?  Very fishy. 

2. None of the polls going into the election showed Bush with more than 50% of the vote.

I would say the 2004 exit poll shows too many hispanics and not enough whites. 

Regardless, though the GOP has made gains and they have to hold 40-45% hispanic support.

[The Duke]

Within 15 years, hispanic voters will be indistinguishable from the rest of the Catholic population.  A swing vote, and the more often they attend mass, the more likely to vote Bush.

[Cashcow]

Perhaps when Castro dies the Cubans will become less conservative (depending on what happens in Cuba at the time). You never know.