Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 01, 2014, 11:32:03 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  Rasmussen in Florida!
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Rasmussen in Florida!  (Read 1708 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35450
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« on: March 15, 2004, 04:32:03 pm »
Ignore

Rasmussen Reports just released their Florida poll.  Here it is:

Kerry 48%
Bush 45%
Other 2%
Not Sure 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_March%2013.htm

Compare that with the Miami Herald Results:

Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

And the ARG Results:

Kerry 45%
Bush 44%
Logged
California Dreamer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 446


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2004, 04:46:07 pm »
Ignore

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

Quote
One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.
Logged

HockeyDude
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6527
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.19, S: -8.78

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2004, 04:54:29 pm »
Ignore

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

Quote
One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

It's very possible.  I consider Florida a Bush lean, but if things don't get better for him, he will lose Florida.  Dem turnout is going to be huge this election, and is the sole reason I think Kerry is going to win.  
Logged

I have an important announcement.  I have officially set a date for the erection
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26829


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2004, 04:55:30 pm »
Ignore

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

Quote
One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

It's very possible.  I consider Florida a Bush lean, but if things don't get better for him, he will lose Florida.  Dem turnout is going to be huge this election, and is the sole reason I think Kerry is going to win.  

I consider Florida a tossup with a GOP leaning. Smiley
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
zachman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2102


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2004, 05:24:12 pm »
Ignore

It seems Democratic leaning with these polls.
Logged

I'm a proud NH Primary voter for 2008.

Harry Reid 08'

"As some warn victory, some downfall
Private reasons great or small
Can be seen in the eyes of those that call
To make all that should be killed to crawl
While others say don't hate nothing at all
Except hatred."
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26829


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2004, 05:24:50 pm »
Ignore

It seems Democratic leaning with these polls.

America seems Demcorat leaning with these polls. Wink
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15187
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2004, 06:08:24 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, I really don't get why everyone is saying that Florida leans to Bush, I guess just because the GOP did well there in 2002, but I really don't see any reason why Florida should be more solid for Bush this time than last time. Even with these polls, people still seem to suggest that Florida leans Bush. It doesn't really make sense. It's a pure toss up, as it was in 2000.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26829


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2004, 06:11:09 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, I really don't get why everyone is saying that Florida leans to Bush, I guess just because the GOP did well there in 2002, but I really don't see any reason why Florida should be more solid for Bush this time than last time. Even with these polls, people still seem to suggest that Florida leans Bush. It doesn't really make sense. It's a pure toss up, as it was in 2000.

The Jewish vote will be harder for Kerry.
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
angus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14747
Political Matrix
E: 1.87, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2004, 06:11:45 pm »
Ignore

Think about it Nym, one poll is from Rasmussen, the other is from Miami Herald.  That's like a taste-test between Old Milwaukee and Sam Adams.  That said, the ARG shows a tie.  Probably that's the truest.  But these polls don't matter.  There is only one poll that matters.  And George Bush won't allow himself to lose that one.
Logged
zachman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2102


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2004, 06:22:47 pm »
Ignore

Jews will not vote for Bush. Except for the richest ones in the northeast.
Logged

I'm a proud NH Primary voter for 2008.

Harry Reid 08'

"As some warn victory, some downfall
Private reasons great or small
Can be seen in the eyes of those that call
To make all that should be killed to crawl
While others say don't hate nothing at all
Except hatred."
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2004, 06:28:17 pm »
Ignore

He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35450
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2004, 06:29:48 pm »
Ignore

He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.

More like 3-5%
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2004, 06:32:02 pm »
Ignore

In Florida, I'll take 3 - 5 %.  That would have been big in 2000.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2004, 06:34:05 pm »
Ignore

I'm tired of all these Florida polls.  Let's see something from Ohio!
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2004, 06:37:10 pm »
Ignore

I second that.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26829


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2004, 06:43:04 pm »
Ignore

I second that.

Me too.
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
dunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3080


P
View Profile
« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2004, 03:22:40 am »
Ignore

Jews will not vote for Bush. Except for the richest ones in the northeast.

they are moving to Florida when they get old
Logged

Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground - TR
CTguy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2004, 07:50:05 am »
Ignore

Even if he does 3% better among Jews in Florida, that will hardly make up for the fact that he will do worse among Cubans, who voted for him at an 8-1 ratio last time.  They are unhappy with some of his Castro policies.  Not to mention there is no Elian Gonzalez saga.  Last election the Cuban turnout was  extremely high, there was an article in the Miami paper predicting that the turnout among Cubans will be much lower.  

That is going to make things much harder for Bush.  It was the Cuban vote that made him competitive in South Florida.  If he loses 100,000 votes down there, he probably won't have enough to offset losses in Palm Beach and Broward Counties and Dade's non cuban population.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35450
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2004, 03:34:53 pm »
Ignore

Kerry will also do substantially better than Gore did among Muslims.  Approx. 60,000 Muslims voted in Florida and favored Bush with about 80%.  that number could be reversed come 2004.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines