Rasmussen in Florida!

[© Tweed the Younger]

Rasmussen Reports just released their Florida poll.  Here it is:

Kerry 48%
Bush 45%
Other 2%
Not Sure 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_March%2013.htm

Compare that with the Miami Herald Results:

Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

And the ARG Results:

Kerry 45%
Bush 44%

[California Dreamer]

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

[HockeyDude]

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

It's very possible.  I consider Florida a Bush lean, but if things don't get better for him, he will lose Florida.  Dem turnout is going to be huge this election, and is the sole reason I think Kerry is going to win.  

[Gustaf]

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

It's very possible.  I consider Florida a Bush lean, but if things don't get better for him, he will lose Florida.  Dem turnout is going to be huge this election, and is the sole reason I think Kerry is going to win.  

I consider Florida a tossup with a GOP leaning.

[zachman]

It seems Democratic leaning with these polls.

[Gustaf]

It seems Democratic leaning with these polls.

America seems Demcorat leaning with these polls.

[Nym90]

Yeah, I really don't get why everyone is saying that Florida leans to Bush, I guess just because the GOP did well there in 2002, but I really don't see any reason why Florida should be more solid for Bush this time than last time. Even with these polls, people still seem to suggest that Florida leans Bush. It doesn't really make sense. It's a pure toss up, as it was in 2000.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I really don't get why everyone is saying that Florida leans to Bush, I guess just because the GOP did well there in 2002, but I really don't see any reason why Florida should be more solid for Bush this time than last time. Even with these polls, people still seem to suggest that Florida leans Bush. It doesn't really make sense. It's a pure toss up, as it was in 2000.

The Jewish vote will be harder for Kerry.

[angus]

Think about it Nym, one poll is from Rasmussen, the other is from Miami Herald.  That's like a taste-test between Old Milwaukee and Sam Adams.  That said, the ARG shows a tie.  Probably that's the truest.  But these polls don't matter.  There is only one poll that matters.  And George Bush won't allow himself to lose that one.

[zachman]

Jews will not vote for Bush. Except for the richest ones in the northeast.

[agcatter]

He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.

[© Tweed the Younger]

He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.

More like 3-5%

[agcatter]

In Florida, I'll take 3 - 5 %.  That would have been big in 2000.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm tired of all these Florida polls.  Let's see something from Ohio!

[agcatter]

I second that.

[Gustaf]

I second that.

Me too.

[dunn]

Jews will not vote for Bush. Except for the richest ones in the northeast.

they are moving to Florida when they get old

[CTguy]

Even if he does 3% better among Jews in Florida, that will hardly make up for the fact that he will do worse among Cubans, who voted for him at an 8-1 ratio last time.  They are unhappy with some of his Castro policies.  Not to mention there is no Elian Gonzalez saga.  Last election the Cuban turnout was  extremely high, there was an article in the Miami paper predicting that the turnout among Cubans will be much lower.  

That is going to make things much harder for Bush.  It was the Cuban vote that made him competitive in South Florida.  If he loses 100,000 votes down there, he probably won't have enough to offset losses in Palm Beach and Broward Counties and Dade's non cuban population.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Kerry will also do substantially better than Gore did among Muslims.  Approx. 60,000 Muslims voted in Florida and favored Bush with about 80%.  that number could be reversed come 2004.