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Author Topic: Can Jeb Bush Beat Obama?  (Read 705 times)
GPORTER
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« on: July 17, 2010, 01:00:56 pm »
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Why or why not?
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Alaska for Deukmjican and South Dakota going for Bradley. Four states remain. Ohio and South Dakota big news of the hour. Dems hold Montana senate seat.

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"So, I leave you all tonight with a full heart and a fervent prayer that we will meet again and we will meet often in this land where miracles are always happening, where every day is a new beginning and every life a blessing from God.

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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2010, 01:02:15 pm »
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Yes, he is well liked in Florida, despite the name. I imagine that once people get to know him, the name will not be relevant. He connects with Hispanics, and is competent and smart.
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2010, 01:07:11 pm »
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No, he would have a worse chance than Palin. A percentage of voters would think that GWB was running again. Jeb has no chance.
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Progressive Realist
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2010, 01:18:30 pm »
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A smarter version of GWB? Yeah, I don't think so.

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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2010, 01:35:33 pm »
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Yes easily.  Now it is looking like any real candidate could easily beat Obama (people more serious than the Palin/Gingrich types)

This would probably be the worst case scenario for Bush against Obama:
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2010, 03:11:21 pm »
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No, and sadly it's because of his last name. Although I obviously want Obama to win re-election, I do not want any candidate (no matter the party)  to be judged solely on family ties. If Jeb's last name was not Bush he would be considered the frontrunner, and here are my reasons:

* Relatively popular governor of a crucial swing state (Florida).

* Fluent in Spanish.

*Married to a Latina woman. Would be America's first Latina First Lady.

* Has wide popularity amongst GOP leaders and voters.
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Bo
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2010, 03:17:32 pm »
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Theoretically, yes. Will he? Probably not.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2010, 06:15:31 pm »
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Quote from: Progressive on July 17, 2010, 03:11:21 pm
No, and sadly it's because of his last name. Although I obviously want Obama to win re-election, I do not want any candidate (no matter the party)  to be judged solely on family ties. If Jeb's last name was not Bush he would be considered the frontrunner, and here are my reasons:

* Relatively popular governor of a crucial swing state (Florida).

* Fluent in Spanish.

*Married to a Latina woman. Would be America's first Latina First Lady.

* Has wide popularity amongst GOP leaders and voters.

You sort of covered this in "Fluent in Spanish" but also:  Won Hispanic voters by close to 35 Points in 2002, and won non-Cuban Hispanics by 10.

Scaling that nationally, it would mean he would carry Hispanics in all but the big city states (California, New York, and Illinois)
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2010, 09:25:31 am »
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Can Jeb Bush Beat Obama?

Quote from: GPORTER on July 17, 2010, 01:00:56 pm
Why or why not?

…No.

1) Republicans won't be able to win back the White House as soon as 2012.

2) Bush.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2010, 09:00:59 am by DS0816 »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2010, 10:58:50 am »
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Quote from: GPORTER on July 17, 2010, 01:00:56 pm
Why or why not?

His brothers. Dubya is bad enough, but Neil is even worse.  Neil Bush has had some bad business dealings and  consorted with prostitutes in Hong Kong, sleeping with any willing woman and oblivious of whether they were doing so on behalf of the Chinese secret agencies or business interests. Neil Bush would be an easy target for blackmail.

His wife got nailed for smuggling, and one of his daughters forged a prescription. The family is toxic.
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« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2010, 11:47:15 am »
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I think its obvious that the 33% registered Democrats would not vote for Jeb based on last name alone.  But I think the Bush name is not as toxic as people believe.

It would be hard for Jeb because Obama would run campaign ads about "going back to the Past instead of the future" but at the same time I personally feel you shouldn't attack someone based on family alone or brothers, sons, daughters. 

Jeb has carved out his own niche and resume and personality that he doesn't need to rely on name recognition.  But that being said, there will always be 33% to 40% of the voters to vote for the Bush name.  Remember, GWB won 2 close elections and rallied his base.  It would take a lot of campaigning and hand-shaking for Jeb because Dubya was a first-class campaigner which was his primary asset. 

If someone like Nader on the left takes votes from Obama, I see Jeb being able to beat him.  Besides, Jeb just needs to win Ohio to win the election, and I think that's a possibility.
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Derek
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« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2010, 02:37:30 pm »
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I think so but the name Bush would hurt him more than the other GOP candidates. It would be an uphill battle for that reason. The funny thing is that he's probably the best of the 3 Bushes and will likely be the one who doesn't make it into the white house lol.
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« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2010, 02:40:33 pm »
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Quote from: Dgov on July 17, 2010, 06:15:31 pm
Quote from: Progressive on July 17, 2010, 03:11:21 pm
No, and sadly it's because of his last name. Although I obviously want Obama to win re-election, I do not want any candidate (no matter the party)  to be judged solely on family ties. If Jeb's last name was not Bush he would be considered the frontrunner, and here are my reasons:

* Relatively popular governor of a crucial swing state (Florida).

* Fluent in Spanish.

*Married to a Latina woman. Would be America's first Latina First Lady.

* Has wide popularity amongst GOP leaders and voters.

You sort of covered this in "Fluent in Spanish" but also:  Won Hispanic voters by close to 35 Points in 2002, and won non-Cuban Hispanics by 10.

Scaling that nationally, it would mean he would carry Hispanics in all but the big city states (California, New York, and Illinois)

I seriously doubt Jeb would do nearly as well with Latinos nationwide (especially against Obama, who is very popular with Latinos) as he did in Florida against a mediocre opponent.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #13 on: July 18, 2010, 03:59:38 pm »
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Quote from: Derek on July 18, 2010, 02:37:30 pm
I think so but the name Bush would hurt him more than the other GOP candidates. It would be an uphill battle for that reason. The funny thing is that he's probably the best of the 3 Bushes and will likely be the one who doesn't make it into the white house lol.

If any Republican voter doesn't vote for Jeb because of his last name, then they don't deserve to be Republicans. 

None of the other candidates like Romney, Gingrich, Palin are half the candidate and politician that Jeb is. 
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Bo
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2010, 04:00:54 pm »
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Quote from: milhouse24 on July 18, 2010, 03:59:38 pm
Quote from: Derek on July 18, 2010, 02:37:30 pm
I think so but the name Bush would hurt him more than the other GOP candidates. It would be an uphill battle for that reason. The funny thing is that he's probably the best of the 3 Bushes and will likely be the one who doesn't make it into the white house lol.

If any Republican voter doesn't vote for Jeb because of his last name, then they don't deserve to be Republicans. 

None of the other candidates like Romney, Gingrich, Palin are half the candidate and politician that Jeb is. 

There are a lot of stupid voters out there. A lot. And to be honest, I really don't have a better opinion of Jeb than I do of Romney and Gingrich.
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Derek
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2010, 04:26:16 pm »
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Quote from: milhouse24 on July 18, 2010, 03:59:38 pm
Quote from: Derek on July 18, 2010, 02:37:30 pm
I think so but the name Bush would hurt him more than the other GOP candidates. It would be an uphill battle for that reason. The funny thing is that he's probably the best of the 3 Bushes and will likely be the one who doesn't make it into the white house lol.

If any Republican voter doesn't vote for Jeb because of his last name, then they don't deserve to be Republicans. 

None of the other candidates like Romney, Gingrich, Palin are half the candidate and politician that Jeb is. 

I agree but I'm talking about democrats and independents lol. No doubt in my mind Jeb would get 95% of the GOP vote.
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Dgov
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2010, 06:14:01 pm »
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Quote from: Rochambeau on July 18, 2010, 02:40:33 pm
I seriously doubt Jeb would do nearly as well with Latinos nationwide (especially against Obama, who is very popular with Latinos) as he did in Florida against a mediocre opponent.
Maybe.  But "Did far above average with Hispanic voters" is still a BIG plus for the GOP.
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« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2010, 06:56:49 pm »
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Quote from: Dgov on July 18, 2010, 06:14:01 pm
Quote from: Rochambeau on July 18, 2010, 02:40:33 pm
I seriously doubt Jeb would do nearly as well with Latinos nationwide (especially against Obama, who is very popular with Latinos) as he did in Florida against a mediocre opponent.
Maybe.  But "Did far above average with Hispanic voters" is still a BIG plus for the GOP.

Possibly. But I think the Bush name might be an even bigger minus for the GOP.
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