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| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  Zogby's final state polls...?
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Author Topic: Zogby's final state polls...?  (Read 2073 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
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« on: November 03, 2004, 11:05:18 am »
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Did anybody save a copy of Zogbys final state predictions.

They seem to be... gone... from his website and I never did get them into my database Smiley
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agcatter
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2004, 11:13:22 am »
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Vorlon, you did pretty well my friend.

BTW, according to CNN, they had it 37-37 on party id yesterday.  You just about nailed that one too.

You think Zogby will still use 39 - 35 next election?

Also, do you have a theory on what was wrong with the exit poll model yesterday?

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ATFFL
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2004, 11:32:45 am »
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Did anybody save a copy of Zogbys final state predictions.

They seem to be... gone... from his website and I never did get them into my database Smiley

My thread on this.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2004, 11:33:09 am »
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Missed party ID by 1%, actually if you look at the data to the 0.1% it was

GOP 37.4
Dems 36.6

So I "do a Zogby" and round the 0.8 up to 1 and call it a "dead on" result Smiley

The only state I really got "wrong" was Minnesota.  I had both Wisconsin and Iowa as pure tossups and gave Wisconsin to Bush and Iowa to Kerry.

The GOP ground game in Minnesota didn't show up - I have no idea why not, but the Minnesota GOTV just didn't get it done.

Ironically, In 2000 I got 2 states wrong - Iowa and Wisconsin.  Those two states don't like me.

Election actually went very close to what I expected other than MInnesota where I was 4% off.
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No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
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