NJ-03: GQR: Adler leads big in internal poll

[Rowan]

NJ-03(Greenberg Quinlan Rosner)

Adler(D-Inc): 51%
Runyan(R): 34%
DeStafano(Tea Party): 12%

http://www.politickernj.com/adler-campaign-poll-shows-congressman-17-points-over-runyan

[You kip if you want to...]

Thanks Tea Party!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

LOL at GQR.  Anyone want to point out the fundamental problem with this poll?

[Rowan]

LOL at GQR.  Anyone want to point out the fundamental problem with this poll?

It can't possibly be that they included a Tea Party candidate.

[cinyc]

LOL at GQR.  Anyone want to point out the fundamental problem with this poll?

It can't possibly be that they included a Tea Party candidate.

Well, they seemingly have included only the Tea Party candidate by name when there may be up to 3 other non-aligned candidates running.  And they (or Politickernj.com) misspelled DeStefano's name.  Plus, GQR screwed up their Corzine-Christie polling, showing Corzine up 3 with way too much support for the independent candidate.

This is an internal poll for the Adler campaign and should be treated as such, with a grain of salt.  Runyan's probably running behind, but not by this much.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We have a winner!

This tea partier will be buried so deep on the ballot that not even earthworms will be able to find him. His share of the vote is guaranteed under 5%, and probably under 3.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     As the poll of Cao's race & this poll remind me, House races tend to be home to many of the dodgiest internal polls. Yes, taking this with a grain of salt is a very good idea.

[Mr.Phips]

This race will be decided by how much Adler gets walloped by in Ocean county.  If he gets 44% or above there, he probably wins.  If Adler survives this election, most or all of Ocean county will probably be removed from the distirct, making him as safe is Rob Andrews. 

[cinyc]

This race will be decided by how much Adler gets walloped by in Ocean county.  If he gets 44% or above there, he probably wins.  If Adler survives this election, most or all of Ocean county will probably be removed from the distirct, making him as safe is Rob Andrews. 

Why?  A commission is responsible for redistricting in New Jersey, not the state legislature.  What district gets the Ocean County part?  What area does Adler's district take in?

[bullmoose88]

All criticisms about this poll aside and regardless who is actually ahead, its a shame for Runyan he spent his last year in San Diego and not with the Eagles prior to retirement.  People know him well, but I think he'd gotten an extra boost if its Eagles tenure just ended.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a partisan-neutral redraw of NJ that I did:

[Mr.Phips]

This race will be decided by how much Adler gets walloped by in Ocean county.  If he gets 44% or above there, he probably wins.  If Adler survives this election, most or all of Ocean county will probably be removed from the distirct, making him as safe is Rob Andrews. 

Why?  A commission is responsible for redistricting in New Jersey, not the state legislature.  What district gets the Ocean County part?  What area does Adler's district take in?

The commission last drew districts to favor incumbents and likely will again.  What will likely happen is that NJ-03 sheds its portion of Ocean to NJ-04 and picks up NJ-04's portion of Burlington and Mercer to replace it. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Jersey gets the shaft come redistricting, and unless there's a retirement up north (Pascrell, maybe?), NJ-03 would probably get the axe. It's going to be an independent commission map, and ganking Adler (or Runyan) is the "fairest" thing to do.

Nothing personal against Adler, it's just that he hasn't been around long enough. Best case scenario for him is an inc vs. inc fight that leans against him. He'd need a D+10 to survive, and you just can't do that there without cannibalizing the Andrews seat, making Rush Holt vulnerable, or turning the LoBiondo seat into a safe R.

It's a real ... tough redraw for Adler.

[Mr.Phips]

New Jersey gets the shaft come redistricting, and unless there's a retirement up north (Pascrell, maybe?), NJ-03 would probably get the axe. It's going to be an independent commission map, and ganking Adler (or Runyan) is the "fairest" thing to do.

Nothing personal against Adler, it's just that he hasn't been around long enough. Best case scenario for him is an inc vs. inc fight that leans against him. He'd need a D+10 to survive, and you just can't do that there without cannibalizing the Andrews seat, making Rush Holt vulnerable, or turning the LoBiondo seat into a safe R.

It's a real ... tough redraw for Adler.

I had always thought there would be a Lance/Holt battle in 2012.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

What about the 6th?  Pallone's seat seems like it'd be pretty easy to dismantle.  I'm not sure what the growth there has been.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you were drawing a map blind, Lance, Holt, and Pallone would all be in trouble. But Pallone and Holt both have deep seniority, and Lance is extremely well-liked by state Democrats and probably the last Republican of the five they'd want to see let go.

[Brittain33]

What about the 6th?  Pallone's seat seems like it'd be pretty easy to dismantle.  I'm not sure what the growth there has been.

There are arguments against destabilizing Lance by doing that, but look at it this way--if you dismantle the 6th, that pulls southern districts up the coast. Adler is from the western extreme of the 3rd district, Cherry Hill, which is hard against the 1st district. It's hard to keep him in a district distinct from the 1st without redrawing a lot more than just the Atlantic coast; you have to give him parts of the 4th and make it more of a Delaware River district. Which is fine, but goes against the make-minimal-disruption-to-incumbents rule that went in the 2002 redistricting.

[Verily]

Here's a partisan-neutral redraw of NJ that I did:

Gross. That split of Burlington and its combination with Ocean is nasty. Put all of Burlington along the Delaware in NJ-12 on that map, then push NJ-4 up to take in the rest of Ocean and maybe a bit of Monmouth if necessary. Take whatever is needed from NJ-12 in Middlesex to get NJ-6 up to size to finish it.

Also, all of SW Essex should be in NJ-8; Wayne can be split with NJ-5 or NJ-11 and parts of Morris moved around between NJ-5 and NJ-11 to make up the difference. Additionally, even though Hawthorne is in NJ-9 now, it should be swapped with NJ-5 for Ridgewood. You can also make NJ-1 more Hispanic by putting the heavily white areas along the Hudson in NJ-9 while putting ~40% Hispanic Fairview and more of North Bergen in NJ-1.