Dem internal: Lincoln within 9 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://tolbertreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Lincoln-State-of-the-Race-memo-FINAL.pdf

R 45 D 36

[Mechaman]

I'm sorry but 46-36 is "cutting a large lead"?

Since the hell when?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

lol, sorry Blanche, we're not buying it

[Eraserhead]

Even if it was real, who cares? Incumbent senators in two-way races don't get reelected when they're at 36%...

[Tender Branson]

I'm sorry but 46-36 is "cutting a large lead"?

Since the hell when?

Because "real" polls show a 30% deficit ...

[Sam Spade]

lol

[memphis]

unlikely

[SPC]

Is this like that Dodd internal that showed him down by 11 just before he dropped out?

[Lunar]

lol

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

lol

[Beet]

If I were Lincoln, I would go hard ,hard negative. She's got nothing to lose.

[redcommander]

If I were Lincoln, I would go hard ,hard negative. She's got nothing to lose.

Definitely. She needs to bring Boozman's approvals into the mud if she will have any chance of winning. I personally think she has been an ok senator in comparison to many of her party colleagues.

[Lunar]

If I were Lincoln, I would go hard ,hard negative. She's got nothing to lose.

Eh.  She has to get her own approval numbers up to something manageable to even have a chance.  If Boozy were an Angle type, perhaps that'd be the right move, but she needs her hits on Boozy to be hard hits, not just hard negative hits.  Cookie cutter ads won't cut it for her -- not that she runs cookie cutters ads anyway, most of her advertising has been above average.   Halter could get away with generic hits on Boozy (Boozy supported TARP, he's lost his Arkansas roots, he's a career politician, etcetc) but they just wouldn't have the same bite from Lincoln.

Negative advertising can't save her unless she finds a silver bullet type of issue.  If I were here I'd put $100,000 into multiple oppo research firms & hire one or two trackers to follow Boozy's every step.

[timmer123]

If I were Lincoln, I would go hard ,hard negative. She's got nothing to lose.

Definitely. She needs to bring Boozman's approvals into the mud if she will have any chance of winning. I personally think she has been an ok senator in comparison to many of her party colleagues.

I would agree. I have a generally favorable opinion of Blanche Lincoln.  But her vote on the H.C. bill alone makes her a bad senator, and she needs to go.

100% guarantee she loses in November.  90% chance she doesn't even break 40% of the vote.

Solid Republican seat

[Brittain33]

90% chance she doesn't even break 40% of the vote.

How many of the defeated incumbent senators of the last 10 years (going back to 2000, or earlier, if you prefer) got less than 40% of the vote? Even Santorum beat that.

Not that it matters if I'm right or not, she's going down by a landslide unless Boozman throws the race and only wins by a respectable margin. It would be unprecedented for him to win by 20+ points when she hasn't had any scandal, is all.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Which, considering where Lincoln routinely polls, shows you just how incredibly bad her electoral situation is.

90% chance she doesn't even break 40% of the vote.

How many of the defeated incumbent senators of the last 10 years (going back to 2000, or earlier, if you prefer) got less than 40% of the vote? Even Santorum beat that.

I can't think of any Senators who experienced a 20%+ trouncing (though I know of one who would have had he stayed through to the general: Bob Torricelli). I can, however, think of one incumbent Governor who got walloped by nearly 50.

Oh, that sounds like a fun trivia question: What incumbent governor -- in our lifetime -- lost his bid for re-election by a 74 - 26 margin?

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Nevermind

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No fair answering so quick, Mr. Shabadoo. 

[timmer123]

Well, looking at Mr. Leip's history of AR Senate polling for the cycle, one ONE single poll, from all the way last November had Blanche above 40% (and she was at a whopping 41%)

This excludes recently discredited Research 2000, which every one of their polls had her at 40 or above.

She is going to lose by 20%+ because liberals don't like her and because Pres Obama is so toxic in Arkansas that she can't recover from his unpopularity