VA-05: SurveyUSA: Hurt Crushes Perriello

[Rowan]

VA-05(SurveyUSA)

Hurt(R): 58%
Perriello(D-Inc): 35%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4099b8a6-042d-4f2b-83ab-eea110a4b379&c=77

[Mjh]

I guess thats what Perriello gets for voting like a Democrat in a R+5 District.

[ajc0918]

I'm not going to say I didn't see this coming, but I thought that the GOP primary would have caused Perriello to have if not an advantage at least a closer race.

[Kevin]

I'm not going to say I didn't see this coming, but I thought that the GOP primary would have caused Perriello to have if not an advantage at least a closer race.

Yeah I'd figure this race would be closer also and it could be?

I would also like to see polling out on VA-9 and VA-11.

[xavier110]

I know PPP had this much closer earlier in the year, around the time of HRC, so I'm pretty surprised by this. I don't think Perriello is in any way the favorite, but he's probably in the 40's.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just a caveat, SUSA had a poll in the summer of 2008 showing Perriello losing by a similarly-huge margin. I don't know if that part of Virginia is hard to poll or what.

[Sam Spade]

Just a caveat, SUSA had a poll in the summer of 2008 showing Perriello losing by a similarly-huge margin. I don't know if that part of Virginia is hard to poll or what.

What's also kind of interesting is that SUSA also had a poll in the summer of 2006 showing Goode leading by almost the exact same margin as this one (59-35) with almost the exact same internals.

Of course, nothing changed in the last poll that year (internals or topline) and he was facing "the weed". 

[Brittain33]

I guess thats what Perriello gets for voting like a Democrat in a R+5 District.

True, he could be down by 15 points instead...

[Mjh]

I guess thats what Perriello gets for voting like a Democrat in a R+5 District.

True, he could be down by 15 points instead...

Perriello was always going to be vulnerable this cycle, but he didn't do himself any favours by voting for the Healt Care Act.
Walt Minnick seems to be in far better shape for example, even though he represents a far more Conservative district than Perriello.

[Brittain33]

Perriello was always going to be vulnerable this cycle, but he didn't do himself any favours by voting for the Healt Care Act.
Walt Minnick seems to be in far better shape for example, even though he represents a far more Conservative district than Perriello.

Perriello is unusual in that he votes in what he believes in and what is best for the country, even if it doesn't poll well in his district. So he is probably gone, but having accomplished something, at least.

Minnick won because he was widely respected by Republicans and drew crazy challengers. Perriello never had the first advantage and won't have the second this year.

[ajc0918]

Perriello was always going to be vulnerable this cycle, but he didn't do himself any favours by voting for the Healt Care Act.
Walt Minnick seems to be in far better shape for example, even though he represents a far more Conservative district than Perriello.

Perriello is unusual in that he votes in what he believes in and what is best for the country, even if it doesn't poll well in his district. So he is probably gone, but having accomplished something, at least.

Minnick won because he was widely respected by Republicans and drew crazy challengers. Perriello never had the first advantage and won't have the second this year.

He's there to represent the district, so I'd say polls should be pretty important.

[Bo]

Even if he loses (which isn't a given at this point), I admire Perriello for voting his conscience. And he would still be losing right now if he voted like a Republican because his base would be less enthusiastic about him while Republicans would still hate his guts for being in the wrong party. If Perriello loses, he could run for Governor of Virginia in 2013 or make a comeback attempt for the House in 2012 (and Obama will have huge coattails and will probably win this district that year). So Perriello's political career would hardly be over even if he lost.

[Lief 🗽]

I hope this isn't true. Perriello is one of my favorite Congressman and definitely my favorite freshman. I'd rather lose 40 blue dogs if it meant keeping him.

[Lief 🗽]

He also has pretty good ads (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gqc8DuWqY74&feature=player_embedded) and kind of looks like a puppy.

[Mjh]

Perriello was always going to be vulnerable this cycle, but he didn't do himself any favours by voting for the Healt Care Act.
Walt Minnick seems to be in far better shape for example, even though he represents a far more Conservative district than Perriello.

Perriello is unusual in that he votes in what he believes in and what is best for the country, even if it doesn't poll well in his district. So he is probably gone, but having accomplished something, at least.

Minnick won because he was widely respected by Republicans and drew crazy challengers. Perriello never had the first advantage and won't have the second this year.

I don't doubt for a second that Perriello votes with his conscience. Unfortunately (for him) his district is far more Conservative than he is, thus making himself far more vulnerable than Blue Dogs like Bobby Bright, Ike Skelton and Walter Minnick.

[minionofmidas]

This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.

[Brittain33]

He's there to represent the district, so I'd say polls should be pretty important.

The district voted narrowly for Barack Obama, so in supporting Obama's agenda, he's not actually going against the way the district voted then. On top of that, voters regularly don't understand issues or hold contradictory views. He should try to represent the district's best interests, and in supporting health care reform, he surely believes he's doing so and I agree. Repealing the estate tax may be popular there, too, but in a poor district like that it's not really good policy.

He's not acting like one of those representatives who chooses "to vote their conscience, not the district" by taking big contributions from financial services companies, casinos, military contractors, etc. and then voting with them over their voters' best interests. I'm thinking of the guy who got bounced from MD-4 a few years ago...

[Brittain33]

I don't doubt for a second that Perriello votes with his conscience. Unfortunately (for him) his district is far more Conservative than he is, thus making himself far more vulnerable than Blue Dogs like Bobby Bright, Ike Skelton and Walter Minnick.

What's so unfortunate for him? He cares more about getting stuff done than having a long career in office, and he was able to do that.

Skelton, Bright, and Minnick would be plenty vulnerable if Skelton hadn't been in office for 30 years and if Bright and Minnick's districts weren't so conservative that the Republican primary turned into a circular firing squad, leaving only the least electable standing. As it was, if Hurt lost to a Teabagger, Perriello would be stronger. Also, as I said in a post a second ago, this district voted for Obama while none of the others came close to doing so.

The biggest factor in Perriello's loss won't be that he supported bringing health care to the 20% or so of people in his district without it, but because the economy is still in the toilet, and with it, the Democrats' macro potential. Also--and this too is beyond Perriello's control--that the electorate in this district varies widely between Presidential election years and off-years. Why shouldn't he represent the electorate that chose him? Did he pretend he was going to be a thorn in Obama's side when he campaigned in '08? I think he's always been a straight shooter.

[Sbane]

VA-5 actually voted for Mccain by 3 points.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

[Brittain33]

VA-5 actually voted for Mccain by 3 points.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

Ok, I was mixing it up with VA-4.

[timmer123]

This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.

Considering this district voted 64% Rep 36% Dem in 2004 and 59% Rep to 40% Dem in 2006, this poll believable.

[Lunar]

He also has pretty good ads (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gqc8DuWqY74&feature=player_embedded) and kind of looks like a puppy.

One who gets repeatedly abused and beaten throughout the entire commercial.

Enjoyable to watch though

[minionofmidas]

This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.

Considering this district voted 64% Rep 36% Dem in 2004 and 59% Rep to 40% Dem in 2006, this poll believable.

With joke opponents. Perriello would have to murder his boyfriend live on tv to fall below that.

[Bo]

This district's democratic parts ought to be hard to squeeze out... 58-35 sounds unlikely. That's, like, pretty near the Democratic floor. (Though yes, Generic R would usually beat Generic D and a liberal Charlottesville Democrat beating the incumbent here was a hard-to-believe fluke.)

Tiny subsamples are of course liable to throw up errors like these, but I doubt Black turnout will be so low that 24% of the population cast 13% of the votes. Or that Charlottesville turnout will be so low that 18-34s become the most Republican age group.

Considering this district voted 64% Rep 36% Dem in 2004 and 59% Rep to 40% Dem in 2006, this poll believable.

With joke opponents. Perriello would have to murder his boyfriend live on tv to fall below that.

Back in 2004 and 2006 Goode was the incumbent, and in 2004 Bush was pretty popular in this area as well. And Perriello isn't gay.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Losing by almost 25% in a poll now is worse for Perriello than it was in 2008, because higher name recognition from having run & won already means that it would be harder for him to swing undecideds into his camp. With that said, history does suggest that it is far too early to count him out.