Is Southern California trending GOP?

[Kodratos]

This is an area of the country where I would expect Bush to be losing support, but that clearly isn't the case. I'm truely shocked by looking at some of these results. Bush gained ground in EVERY SoCal county. These are the major ones. Imperial, a low-populated traditional Democrat county, saw a one percent swing Bush's way.

Los Angeles County
2000: 64% Gore
2004: 63% Kerry

Orange County
2000: 56% Bush
2004: 60% Bush

Riverside County
2000: Bush 51%
2004: Bush 58%

Ventura County
2000: Bush 48%
2004: Bush 51%

San Bernardino County
2000: Bush 49%
2004: Bush 56%

San Diego County
2000: Bush 50%
2004: Bush 52%

[Kevinstat]

The Los Angeles County percentage date for 2000 should be for Gore, rather than Kerry, but that's minor.  Thank you for pointing this out.  Some cultural issues that were big in 2000 (like abortion and gun control) didn't seem to be as big this year, and the cultural issues that were big this year (like gay marriage) may not cut the same way.  Anti-immigration sentiment may help explain why Bush made gains instead of Kerry.  Do you know if there are a lot of military bases in southern California?  That might help explain the shift toward Bush.  Also, the populism of the Kerry-Edwards ticket might have turned off some people in southern California.  For many years the big partisan divide in California was north (D) v. south (R, with L.A. as a Democratic exception to that rule but still not as Democratic as it is today), then changed to coastal (D) v. inland (R).  I'm not a paid member of this site so I'm not sure who gained in California overall or in the remainder of California.  If Bush gained overall in the state, it could be that he got the best of both worlds, gaining in the central and northern interior on cultural issues and gaining slightly in southern California on economic, foreign policy and immigration issues.

I hope this reply is helpful to you.  Thank you for bringing this up.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Lunar]

Bush gained among Hispanics.

Hispanics are the major demographic in Southern California.

Bush gained in Southern California

[minionofmidas]

Er...by victory margins San Diego, Los Angeles and Ventura stayed virtually put while the Republicans gained almost 4 points nationally. That looks like slowly trending Democrat to me. San Bernardino and Riverside did trend Republican, like most exurban counties around the nation this time (and unlike last time). I'm not sure if Orange's Rep trend is above or below the national average. You also left out Santa Barbara, which muddles the picture further by swinging pretty heavily Democratic (I think Nader may have got a high share there last time though...)

[Kodratos]

The Republicans may have gained 3 points nationally but Kerry gained a point in California. I also wouldn't call Santa Barbara SoCal. I have a hard time calling Ventura SoCal as well.

[Colin]

Er...by victory margins San Diego, Los Angeles and Ventura stayed virtually put while the Republicans gained almost 4 points nationally. That looks like slowly trending Democrat to me. San Bernardino and Riverside did trend Republican, like most exurban counties around the nation this time (and unlike last time). I'm not sure if Orange's Rep trend is above or below the national average. You also left out Santa Barbara, which muddles the picture further by swinging pretty heavily Democratic (I think Nader may have got a high share there last time though...)

Lewis I could give you these results:

2000:
52 Dem
48 Rep
2004:
58 Rep
42 Dem

and you would tell me that it was trending Democrat.

[Amanda]

nice