Palin/Armey vs Obama/Biden

[redcommander]

The Tea Party takes over of the Republican Presidential primaries and Palin becomes the Republican nominee for President choosing another Tea bagger, Dick Armey. Despite Obama being below 45% in approval ratings, he is reelected in a landslide after many moderate Republicans and Independents vote for him. Christian fundamentalism and extremism being a force in the Republican party dies soon after this devastating loss, as the party moves to the center to become electorally viable again.



Barrack Obama/Joe Biden 62.2%
Sarah Palin/Dick Armey 35.3%
Others 2.5%

[Fuzzy]

I might flip Oklahoma, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.  Maybe a few other Southern states too, many whites didn't vote for Obama because he was black (just look at some of the major Republican swings in those states from 2004 to 2008).  I think the popular vote would be closer, 60% would be increadibly hard for anyone on either side to reach due to polarization, even with two far right partisans on one ticket.


But other than that, the map is probably pretty accurate to what would happen.

[Senator Libertas]

It's pretty hard to imagine any realistic scenario in which Barack Obama wins in 2012.

The map in the OP I assume must be a joke? The absolute worst I could see any GOPer doing would be winning around 14 states.

But Obama is toast, he's finished, so that doesn't apply no matter who the Republican nominee is.

[redcommander]

It's pretty hard to imagine any realistic scenario in which Barack Obama wins in 2012.

The map in the OP I assume must be a joke? The absolute worst I could see any GOPer doing would be winning around 14 states.

But Obama is toast, he's finished, so that doesn't apply no matter who the Republican nominee is.

No, Obama could have an approval rating of 30%, and would still beat Palin because she is Palin.

[Fuzzy]

It's pretty hard to imagine any realistic scenario in which Barack Obama wins in 2012.

The map in the OP I assume must be a joke? The absolute worst I could see any GOPer doing would be winning around 14 states.

But Obama is toast, he's finished, so that doesn't apply no matter who the Republican nominee is.

No, Obama could have an approval rating of 30%, and would still beat Palin because she is Palin.

I agree.  Palin is already in the 30% range.   Plus, Obama isn't doing that horribly, Pollster.com (which takes the average of all the polls) shows his disapproval just slightly higher than his approval.  Plus, it's not like many other presidents had good approval ratings 2 years through their presidency.   People even thought that Reagan would loose.   

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Go troll somewhere else.

[Bo]

Is Armey really a teabagger? And I don't think Obama would win by that much even against that kind of ticket.

[Ronnie]

Obama beating Palin in the entire Deep South?  Ya right!

Face it, the country is way too polarized for something like this to happen.  This map assumes Palin molests a little boy right before the election.

[The Chairman]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

[DS0816]

I'm wondering if we'd see a third party (or independent).

[Bo]

I'm wondering if we'd see a third party (or independent).

Maybe Bloomberg if the economy continues to be in bad shape.

[DS0816]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

[^ EDITING, MINE; Blue: Palin • Red: Obama]

If Sarah Palin couldn't hold her home state of Alaska, which John McCain carried by 21.54% in Election 2008, you'd need to flip a few more states around and within that margin: Tennessee (R+15.06%), Mississippi (R+13.17%), Alabama (R+21.58%), Georgia (R+5.20%; in which Obama won the female vote), South Carolina (R+8.48%), Texas (R+11.76%), Kansas (R+14.92%), Nebraska (R+14.93%; all five electoral votes). If it's that bad you might as well consider even Idaho (R+25.30%). And no way in hell would Montana hold for the GOP; McCain won it only by 2.38% while Obama won the state's female vote.

[Derek]

http://

Palin 538
Obama 0

It's a girl! lol

[Zarn]

Palin would be crushed, but she would win some states.

[Yelnoc]

Palin would be crushed, but she would win some states.  If the race stayed a simple two-party race then voter turnout would be phenomenally low and the Libertarian party would do very well, but not enough to affect the outcome.  The map might look something like this:



A third party challenger like Ross Perot, maybe Bloomberg, maybe someone we havn't even thought of, would emerge and finish a solid second in the electoral vote.  Maybe something like this:

[Bo]

http://

Palin 538
Obama 0

It's a girl! lol

Uh, yeah, this is why no one here takes you seriously.

[Fuzzy]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

[Yelnoc]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

[Senator Libertas]

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

[Yelnoc]

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

You honestly think that Palin can win back Indiana and New Hampshire?  That would be more like the map for if Gingrich ran.

[Senator Libertas]

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

You honestly think that Palin can win back Indiana and New Hampshire?  That would be more like the map for if Gingrich ran.

I honestly think that, with the sorry state the economy and the country will be in by 2012, even Palin will be able to defeat Obama. Democrats should be careful what they wish for in hoping Palin is the GOP nominee.

[Fuzzy]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

[DS0816]

Hey Derek!


It's a … MAN!

ELECTION 2012

Sarah Palin [R-Alaska] vs. * Barack Obama [D-Illinois]





Palin 0
Obama 538

[Yelnoc]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

What those numbers say is that a large majority of southern whites are conservative, not racist.  You are right, there are some who are racist but they are a minority.  The number of racists that vote is an even more miniscule number.  Generally, and yes this is a blanket statement, racists are uneducated white trash uninterested in politics when it goes beyond parroting Rush Limbaugh to actually getting off the couch/out of the trailer and voting.

[Fuzzy]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

What those numbers say is that a large majority of southern whites are conservative, not racist.  You are right, there are some who are racist but they are a minority.  The number of racists that vote is an even more miniscule number.  Generally, and yes this is a blanket statement, racists are uneducated white trash uninterested in politics when it goes beyond parroting Rush Limbaugh to actually getting off the couch/out of the trailer and voting.

Alright,  but voting differences of that magnitude seems at least somewhat odd during a very Democratic year.