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| | |-+  How would the 2016 GOP and DEM races have gone if....
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Author Topic: How would the 2016 GOP and DEM races have gone if....  (Read 1393 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: February 22, 2016, 12:26:54 am »
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Trump had not run and instead Romney chose to (Bush, Walker, Paul, Santorum, Huckabee, Cruz, Rubio, Christie, Carson, Fiorina, Jindal, Pataki, Graham, Gilmore, Everson and Perry had all ran in this scenario)

Biden had chosen to run instead of sitting out?

How would the races look right now? Would some of the candidates who dropped out remain?
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And it keeps on falling down!
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2016, 09:58:56 am »
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Romney would be leading the GOP race and it would be Biden vs Clinton vs Sanders in the Democratic race.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2016, 06:59:22 pm »
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No Kasich?

Romney 21%(WON IA)
Christie 19%(WON NH)
Rubio 18%(WON SC)
Paul 17%
Undecided 5%

Sanders 34%(WON NH, NV)
Clinton 32%
Biden 30%(WON IA)
Undecided 4%
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2016, 07:40:11 pm »
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No Kasich?

Romney 21%(WON IA)
Christie 19%(WON NH)
Rubio 18%(WON SC)
Paul 17%
Undecided 5%

Sanders 34%(WON NH, NV)
Clinton 32%
Biden 30%(WON IA)
Undecided 4%

If Romney is leading national polls and won Iowa then he's winning New Hampshire and probably South Carolina too.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2016, 07:56:18 pm »
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No Kasich?

Romney 21%(WON IA)
Christie 19%(WON NH)
Rubio 18%(WON SC)
Paul 17%
Undecided 5%

Sanders 34%(WON NH, NV)
Clinton 32%
Biden 30%(WON IA)
Undecided 4%

If Romney is leading national polls and won Iowa then he's winning New Hampshire and probably South Carolina too.
Christie was leading until he got fourth place in SC to Romney's third. Paul placed second everywhere and is looking likely to win NV.
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

"Good speech and good looks covers man's every vice. Plain speech and plain looks covers man's every virtue."

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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2016, 12:28:56 am »
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Why do people have this obsession with Romney running in 2016? It makes about as much sense as Kerry running in 2008 would have.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2016, 12:40:35 am »
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Why do people have this obsession with Romney running in 2016? It makes about as much sense as Kerry running in 2008 would have.

Because he almost did?
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2016, 12:44:58 am »
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Why do people have this obsession with Romney running in 2016? It makes about as much sense as Kerry running in 2008 would have.

Because he almost did?

My point is he would've been a weak candidate.
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2016, 06:30:53 pm »
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No Kasich?

Romney 21%(WON IA)
Christie 19%(WON NH)
Rubio 18%(WON SC)
Paul 17%
Undecided 5%

Sanders 34%(WON NH, NV)
Clinton 32%
Biden 30%(WON IA)
Undecided 4%

Bridgegate would have still been a thing, though, Christie's campaign wouldn't have taken off even without Trump
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2016, 03:24:05 pm »
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We may not have appreciated it, because who could have pictured how bad things have gotten, but life would be so good.
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« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2016, 08:24:46 pm »
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No way Romney would have won the nomination. I think part of the reason he didn't run again was because he wasn't polling that well.

The anti-establishment energy would have been squarely behind one of the right-wing Republican candidates (an actual right-winger like Walker, Cruz or Rubio). I say one of them would have been the man to beat. Rand Paul may have done a little better. Jeb! still would have floundered. Kasich would unfortunately still be doing well since I don't think Trump cost Rick Perry that last podium at the first Fox News debate in Cleveland. Rubio may never have made the gaffe that cost him his campaign. Christie may have been able to yell his way into first place but would have had a hard time staying there when the spotlight would fall on his record in New Jersey.

The person who would have done the best relative to how he actually did is Scott Walker. Without Trump, he probably wouldn't have lost his lead in Iowa unless it was taken away by Ted Cruz, and Walker may have matched Cruz's intensity there. Remember, Walker was leading by around 9 points in the state until the fascist came along.

Unlike Trump and Cruz, I could see Walker being someone that Kasich may have respected enough to drop out and endorse.

I say Walker would have won Iowa solidly, a divided establishment vote would quite possibly have handed him New Hampshire as well, and if that were to happen, the nomination would likely be his.
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#FireGarPax
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« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2016, 08:39:11 pm »
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No way Romney would have won the nomination. I think part of the reason he didn't run again was because he wasn't polling that well.

The anti-establishment energy would have been squarely behind one of the right-wing Republican candidates (an actual right-winger like Walker, Cruz or Rubio). I say one of them would have been the man to beat. Rand Paul may have done a little better. Jeb! still would have floundered. Kasich would unfortunately still be doing well since I don't think Trump cost Rick Perry that last podium at the first Fox News debate in Cleveland. Rubio may never have made the gaffe that cost him his campaign. Christie may have been able to yell his way into first place but would have had a hard time staying there when the spotlight would fall on his record in New Jersey.

The person who would have done the best relative to how he actually did is Scott Walker. Without Trump, he probably wouldn't have lost his lead in Iowa unless it was taken away by Ted Cruz, and Walker may have matched Cruz's intensity there. Remember, Walker was leading by around 9 points in the state until the fascist came along.

Unlike Trump and Cruz, I could see Walker being someone that Kasich may have respected enough to drop out and endorse.

I say Walker would have won Iowa solidly, a divided establishment vote would quite possibly have handed him New Hampshire as well, and if that were to happen, the nomination would likely be his.

I agree with this analysis 100%. Even if Walker weren't able to win New Hampshire in this scenario, he very likely would have won both IA and SC. Given that he has somewhat broad appeal to the major wings of the GOP, two wins in the first three states would have put him in commanding position.
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"There's no limit to what free men and free women in a free market with free enterprise can accomplish when people are free to follow their dream."
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« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2016, 09:49:50 pm »
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Green Cruz Drops out after the last primary
Yellow Paul Drops out March 23rd
Red Kasich Drops out March 16th
Blue Walker
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 09:54:28 pm by Pacific Councilor 1184AZ »Logged
Governor Leinad
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« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2016, 12:44:03 am »
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Walker's still Walker, he wouldn't have done all that better than in real life.

Cruz would've won Iowa with Romney second, Romney would've won New Hampshire.

I think Cruz, Christie, Jeb!, and maybe Carson would've done better, while Rubio probably would've been more crowded out by Romney than he was by Trump.

I suspect Cruz would've won, since his "very conservative" base would've been able to expand into the purely anti-establishment Trump crowd much better than it has now, while Jeb! wouldn't have been Trump'd as he was in real life, and Christie would've had more of a path as the loud moderate yankee. Thus, Romney, Christie, and Jeb! would've split the establishment vote three ways, and Cruz would've been too far ahead after Super Tuesday to stop.

Pre-IA - Let's say all the people who dropped out before Iowa in real life drop out here, too.
IA - Cruz > Romney > Jeb! (Huckabee and Santorum drop out)
NH - Romney > Christie > Cruz (Fiorina, Paul, and Rubio drop out)
SC - Cruz > Romney > Jeb! (Carson drops out, endorses Cruz)
NV - Cruz > Romney > Jeb! (Christie drops out, endorses Romney)
ST - Cruz wins most states, Romney wins a couple, Jeb! gets a state to keep him in until Florida.

At that point Cruz wins most of the states due to vote-splitting by Romney and Jeb!, including on March 15th, where Jeb! loses Florida and finally drops out, endorsing Romney. At that point, Romney goes on to win Utah, and win several states in the Northeast, but it's not enough and Cruz gets to 1237 in May.



Not sure about the Democrats with Biden. I presume he would've taken some of the establishment support from Clinton, but also some of the anti-Clinton support/momentum from Sanders. Not sure which one would've been stronger, or if he would've won the nomination. I suspect it would've turned into a 2-way race by this point, although I could see all 3 of them staying in and having a contested convention, perhaps leading to something like a Biden-Sanders ticket (just what the Republicans are fearing--two old white guys! Tongue).
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2016, 01:12:00 am »
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John Kasich: 53.1%
Ted Cruz: 25.0%
Mitt Romney: 20.7%


Bernie Sanders: 50.5%
Joseph Biden: 24.8%
Hillary Clinton: 24.2%
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

"Good speech and good looks covers man's every vice. Plain speech and plain looks covers man's every virtue."

Economic: 1.38
Social: -2.36
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