PPP: Romney leads in FL and NV primaries

[Tender Branson]

Florida (400 GOP primary voters):

Romney: 31%
Gingrich: 23%
Palin: 23%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 6%
Undecided: 4%

Nevada (400 GOP primary voters):

Romney: 34%
Gingrich: 28%
Palin: 16%
Huckabee: 11%
Paul: 7%
Undecided: 5%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/GOP2012FLNV.pdf

[Yelnoc]

Huckabee won't run, meaning that Gingrich will get a boost.

[King]

I'd rather vote for George W Bush again than any of these unlikeable turds.

[ej2mm15]

Red-Romney
Blue-Huckabee
Green-Palin
Yellow-Gingrich
Dark Green-Demint
Pink-Jindal

[California8429]

Very good numbers for Gingrich.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Huckabee won't run, meaning that Gingrich will get a boost.

Or Palin   

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Very good numbers for Gingrich.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting him to run so well in Nevada.  Romney destroyed there last time.  But than again, Romney did well in the Caucus.  Is Nevada going to have a primary next time too?

[Yelnoc]

Huckabee won't run, meaning that Gingrich will get a boost.

Or Palin   

Voters are smarter than that.
.
.
.
Right?

[California8429]

Very good numbers for Gingrich.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting him to run so well in Nevada.  Romney destroyed there last time.  But than again, Romney did well in the Caucus.  Is Nevada going to have a primary next time too?

I don't think so, though it is becoming the case more and more that voters push for primaries since they are just way easier for first timers. But I was very surprised at Nevada results, thought Romney would have a much larger lead, though I did think Gingrich would be in second

[Mr. Morden]

Very good numbers for Gingrich.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting him to run so well in Nevada.  Romney destroyed there last time.  But than again, Romney did well in the Caucus.  Is Nevada going to have a primary next time too?

My understanding is that they're widely expected to hold a caucus next time as well.  In fact, I think that's part of the deal for them going early in the calendar for both parties.....that the first four leadoff states are two caucuses (IA and NV) and two primaries (NH and SC)...here's a guess at the current primary schedule:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html

[Beet]

Which states will have primaries and which ones will have caucuses? In 2008, it was pretty misleading because I remember a few polls coming out showing Hillary with a solid lead in Minnesota, and then she lost like 2-1 in the caucus.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Very good numbers for Gingrich.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting him to run so well in Nevada.  Romney destroyed there last time.  But than again, Romney did well in the Caucus.  Is Nevada going to have a primary next time too?

My understanding is that they're widely expected to hold a caucus next time as well.  In fact, I think that's part of the deal for them going early in the calendar for both parties.....that the first four leadoff states are two caucuses (IA and NV) and two primaries (NH and SC)...here's a guess at the current primary schedule:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html

I thought so, I was just confused over the poll, which would be pointless since it's among RV rather than delegates if there wasn't a primary. 

[Mr. Morden]

Which states will have primaries and which ones will have caucuses?

On the GOP side, Hawaii is switching from a state convention to a caucus, and Montana is switching from a caucus to a primary.  All other states are doing the same as they did in 2008, at least as of now.  Early next year, there will likely be a huge amount of primary calendar jockeying, and additional states may change the format of their contests.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Huckabee won't run, meaning that Gingrich will get a boost.

Or Palin   

Voters are smarter than that.
.
.
.
Right?

I don't know.......

[Mr. Morden]

I thought so, I was just confused over the poll, which would be pointless since it's among RV rather than delegates if there wasn't a primary. 

AFAIK, the GOP Nevada caucus is the same format as the GOP Iowa caucus, which is basically just a straw poll.  So if you can poll "likely caucus goers", then you have a good poll.  Problem is, caucus turnout is much smaller than turnout would be for a primary.  In 2008, all of the Nevada caucus polls were off.  Mason-Dixon was the closest, which had a Romney lead of 15 points.  His actual margin of victory was 37 points.  About 25% of the GOP caucus voters were Mormon, and they went 90+% for Romney, so that was about half his voters right there.