PPP: Romney leads in FL and NV primaries

[Mr. Morden]

Very good numbers for Gingrich.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting him to run so well in Nevada.  Romney destroyed there last time.  But than again, Romney did well in the Caucus.  Is Nevada going to have a primary next time too?

My understanding is that they're widely expected to hold a caucus next time as well.  In fact, I think that's part of the deal for them going early in the calendar for both parties.....that the first four leadoff states are two caucuses (IA and NV) and two primaries (NH and SC)...here's a guess at the current primary schedule:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/06/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html

[Mr. Morden]

Which states will have primaries and which ones will have caucuses?

On the GOP side, Hawaii is switching from a state convention to a caucus, and Montana is switching from a caucus to a primary.  All other states are doing the same as they did in 2008, at least as of now.  Early next year, there will likely be a huge amount of primary calendar jockeying, and additional states may change the format of their contests.

[Mr. Morden]

I thought so, I was just confused over the poll, which would be pointless since it's among RV rather than delegates if there wasn't a primary. 

AFAIK, the GOP Nevada caucus is the same format as the GOP Iowa caucus, which is basically just a straw poll.  So if you can poll "likely caucus goers", then you have a good poll.  Problem is, caucus turnout is much smaller than turnout would be for a primary.  In 2008, all of the Nevada caucus polls were off.  Mason-Dixon was the closest, which had a Romney lead of 15 points.  His actual margin of victory was 37 points.  About 25% of the GOP caucus voters were Mormon, and they went 90+% for Romney, so that was about half his voters right there.