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| | | |-+  Divided or Mandate?
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Author Topic: Divided or Mandate?  (Read 17989 times)
dougrhess
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« on: November 03, 2004, 04:09:08 pm »
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There was talk on the radio of Bush having a mandate since he got over 50 perecent and that hasn't happened in recent elections.

However, I think if the country were not so divided and angry, you would have seen the third parties do better and Bush, or Kerry, would have won with under 50 percent. Make sense? Still musing on that....
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2004, 04:14:31 pm »
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this is by no means a mandate.
the country is too polarized right now.
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zachman
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2004, 04:14:47 pm »
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Did the pundits consider Bush 41 to get a mandate?

Of course my own answer to this is no. But what do I know? I live in a blue state. Bush certainly got a mandate in the South.
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2004, 04:15:40 pm »
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Narrow, but solid win and I think a mandate.

Getting over 50% of PV helps in this.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2004, 04:18:11 pm »
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Doesn't matter.  Bush governed as if he had a mandate for the last 4 years anyway.  He'll continue to do so, only more so.  This time he actually got the most votes AND he picked up support in both houses of Congress.  I suspect we'll be in for  more tax cuts, bigger budget deficits, a weak economy, and more war and deaths overseas, with a continual terror threat, along with little movement toward peace between the Israelis and Palestineans.  I only hope that Stevens and Ginsburg can remain on the court for 4 more years.  I'm sure Rhenquist and O'Connor will retire soon.
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dougrhess
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2004, 04:21:45 pm »
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Doesn't matter.  Bush governed as if he had a mandate for the last 4 years anyway.  He'll continue to do so, only more so.  This time he actually got the most votes AND he picked up support in both houses of Congress.  I suspect we'll be in for  more tax cuts, bigger budget deficits, a weak economy, and more war and deaths overseas, with a continual terror threat, along with little movement toward peace between the Israelis and Palestineans.  I only hope that Stevens and Ginsburg can remain on the court for 4 more years.  I'm sure Rhenquist and O'Connor will retire soon.

True. He'll have to satisfy a lot of moderate Republican Senators now though. McCain and whatshisname from IN on the foreign relations committee have been pretty pissed about Iraq.

Cheney did say mandate in his comments today.
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kelpie
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2004, 04:38:28 pm »
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Bush got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history.

Mandate.
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2004, 04:40:00 pm »
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As some Fox News guy just quoted Kennedy on, a one vote margin is a mandate.
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stry_cat
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2004, 04:50:25 pm »
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I hate to say it but I think Bush got an extremely big mandate.  First he won the popular vote.  Second he won the electoral college by a larger margin than last time.  Third (and the most important) the Republicans not only picked up seats in the Senate, but the Democratic leader was defeated.  Fourth (and almost important as the Senate), the Republicans picked up seats in the House.  Overall they had a really good night. 

It wasn't a landslide but it certainly was near devistation to the Dems.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2004, 04:57:08 pm »
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Bush got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history.

Mandate.
and Gore got the 3rd most... proves nothing.
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2004, 05:01:38 pm »
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Bush got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history.

Mandate.
and Gore got the 3rd most... proves nothing.

Actually, Gore is 4th.  Kerry is 2nd and Reagan is 3rd now.
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2004, 05:04:50 pm »
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The Atlas only has Kerry at 53.5 million. Reagan got 54.5.

Gore is 4th now though. I think Kerry is 3rd, Reagan 2nd.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2004, 05:05:50 pm »
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Bush got more votes than any other presidential candidate in history.

Mandate.
and Gore got the 3rd most... proves nothing.

Actually, Gore is 4th.  Kerry is 2nd and Reagan is 3rd now.
making my point even clearer.  Kerry got more votes than Reagan, yet Bush got a mandate because he got the most votes ever.  I don't think so.
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2004, 05:06:44 pm »
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What's your source of information?
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ATFFL
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2004, 05:07:42 pm »
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The Atlas only has Kerry at 53.5 million. Reagan got 54.5.

Looking at the current CNN total, and from other newssites, Kerry is up to 55,435,808.

Elcorazon, I agree that thinking the most votes ever is a mandate is foolish. 

Sure sounds good though, if people do not stop to think about it.  No one ever went broke betting that people would not think.
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2004, 05:14:01 pm »
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This wasn't a mandate.

It was a 51-48 win. It was a win of 3 points. A solid win, but no mandate. If you congratulated Bush for getting the highest popular vote ever, you must consider George Washington's election a miserable failure.
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2004, 05:16:55 pm »
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This wasn't a mandate.

It was a 51-48 win. It was a win of 3 points. A solid win, but no mandate. If you congratulated Bush for getting the highest popular vote ever, you must consider George Washington's election a miserable failure.

A mandate is a matter of degree.  A majority of the vote provides more of a mandate than a plurality, especially when everybody knows what you stand for, and voted accordingly.

You probably thought that Clinton's 43% of the vote in 1992 represented a mandate.  That's usually how these things work - the person you want always has a mandate, while the opponent never does.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2004, 05:19:02 pm »
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The mandate is less for Bush specifically and more for the Republicans.  Solid gains in both houses of Congress along with a PV win over 50% does give the party a madate.
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2004, 05:19:10 pm »
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It's not a mandate because he got the most votes ever. It's a mandate because he won.
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2004, 05:20:43 pm »
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This wasn't a mandate.

It was a 51-48 win. It was a win of 3 points. A solid win, but no mandate. If you congratulated Bush for getting the highest popular vote ever, you must consider George Washington's election a miserable failure.

A mandate is a matter of degree.  A majority of the vote provides more of a mandate than a plurality, especially when everybody knows what you stand for, and voted accordingly.

You probably thought that Clinton's 43% of the vote in 1992 represented a mandate.  That's usually how these things work - the person you want always has a mandate, while the opponent never does.

Looking at the PV, I wouldn't call it a mandate. But the EV, yes. However, without Perot, it would have been much closer. It wasn't a mandate by any means in my book.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2004, 05:40:35 pm »
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It's not a mandate because he got the most votes ever. It's a mandate because he won.

In general I agree.  Winning provides a mandate, and the greater the victory, the bigger the mandate.  In that sense, the president has more of a mandate than in 2000, when his mandate was virtually non-existent.
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Jim Valvano
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2004, 05:53:54 pm »
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Yes it is a mandate, just take a look at the congress. 4 years ago with Bush running the R's lost about 5 seats each in the House and Senate. Now the R's have gained about 5 seats in each.

BTW here's a list of all-time vote getters
1. Bush       2004
2. Kerry      2004
3. Reagan  1984
4. Gore       2000
5. Bush       2000
6. Bush       1988
7. Clinton    1996
8. Nixon      1972
9. Clinton    1992
10. Reagan 1980

Wow, four of the top five in the past two elections
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StatesRights
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2004, 06:00:08 pm »
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Bush is almost up to 60 million in the PV now.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2004, 06:03:33 pm »
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Yes it is a mandate, just take a look at the congress. 4 years ago with Bush running the R's lost about 5 seats each in the House and Senate. Now the R's have gained about 5 seats in each.

BTW here's a list of all-time vote getters
1. Bush       2004
2. Kerry      2004
3. Reagan  1984
4. Gore       2000
5. Bush       2000
6. Bush       1988
7. Clinton    1996
8. Nixon      1972
9. Clinton    1992
10. Reagan 1980

Wow, four of the top five in the past two elections

That's because of population growth and growth in the number of voters.  It's the percentage that really matters.
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Gabu
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2004, 06:05:09 pm »
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Yes it is a mandate, just take a look at the congress. 4 years ago with Bush running the R's lost about 5 seats each in the House and Senate. Now the R's have gained about 5 seats in each.

BTW here's a list of all-time vote getters
1. Bush       2004
2. Kerry      2004
3. Reagan  1984
4. Gore       2000
5. Bush       2000
6. Bush       1988
7. Clinton    1996
8. Nixon      1972
9. Clinton    1992
10. Reagan 1980

Wow, four of the top five in the past two elections

I think that's more of a testament to how well Reagan did in 1984 than to how well Bush did in 2004.
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