Percentage swing necessary to flip narrow elections
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Author Topic: Percentage swing necessary to flip narrow elections  (Read 1009 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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« on: July 27, 2010, 05:34:57 PM »
I limited this only to elections where a nationwide swing of 1.50% or less would have changed the outcome of the election.

2000: 0.005% (FL flips)
1884: 0.05% (NY flips)
1916: 0.19% (CA+NH flip)
1876: 0.24% (SC flips)
1960: 0.40% (HI+MO+IL+NJ+NM flip)
1948: 0.42% (OH+IL+CA flip)
1844: 0.53% (NY flips)
1888: 0.55% (NY+IN flip)
1976: 0.84% (OH+WI flip)
1880: 0.95% (NY+IN+OR flip)
2004: 1.05% (OH+NM+IA flip)
1968: 1.46% (MO+NJ+OH+IL+AK flip)

Feel free to correct me or find any errors or omissions.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2010, 10:23:22 AM »
Quote from: Rochambeau on July 27, 2010, 05:34:57 PM
2000: 0.005% (FL flips)
1884: 0.05% (NY flips)
1916: 0.19% (CA+NH flip)
1876: 0.24% (SC flips)
1960: 0.40% (HI+MO+IL+NJ+NM flip)
1948: 0.42% (OH+IL+CA flip)
1844: 0.53% (NY flips)
1888: 0.55% (NY+IN flip)
1976: 0.84% (OH+WI flip)

That's impressive to see how the 9 closest elections in the History were all elections in which democrats won Popular Vote...
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2010, 11:10:09 AM »
Quote from: Antonio V on July 28, 2010, 10:23:22 AM
Quote from: Rochambeau on July 27, 2010, 05:34:57 PM
2000: 0.005% (FL flips)
1884: 0.05% (NY flips)
1916: 0.19% (CA+NH flip)
1876: 0.24% (SC flips)
1960: 0.40% (HI+MO+IL+NJ+NM flip)
1948: 0.42% (OH+IL+CA flip)
1844: 0.53% (NY flips)
1888: 0.55% (NY+IN flip)
1976: 0.84% (OH+WI flip)

That's impressive to see how the 9 closest elections in the History were all elections in which democrats won Popular Vote...

Wow. That is interesting. Still, the Democrats pre-1932 were very different from the Democrats post-1932.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2015, 09:57:00 AM »
By that standard 2012 was not close at all. A uniform nationwide swing of 2.5% toward the GOP would give Romney a 49.65%-48.51% popular vote margin and flip FL, OH and VA-- but Obama would still have won 272-266 EVs.
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