Would a Bloomberg run hurt Obama or his GOP challenger?

[wormyguy]

The possibility of Michael Bloomberg running an independent candidacy in the 2012 Presidential election has often been discussed. He's well-known as a former Republican, but holds liberal views on many issues, like abortion/gay rights, as well as healthcare, and many other hot-button issues.

So, would he do more damage to Obama, or to his GOP challenger?

IMO, he wouldn't do too much damage to the GOP in Republican country, but he could put several northeastern states (such as Connecticut) into play for the GOP by exploiting the favorite son effect and splitting the liberal vote. I would therefore see him as more of a danger to Obama. On the other hand, the one poll I've seen that includes him as a candidate shows him splitting the vote with the Republican (which, admittedly, is Sarah Palin).

[The Mikado]

There's a topic about Bloomberg ruling out a run on the first page.

[wormyguy]

There's a topic about Bloomberg ruling out a run on the first page.

Which is why I made this topic. Sarah Palin also claims she won't run.

[Mr. Morden]

There's a topic about Bloomberg ruling out a run on the first page.

Which is why I made this topic. Sarah Palin also claims she won't run.

I don't think she has claimed that, has she?  Like Barbour, Huckabee, Johnson, Romney, etc., she just says stuff like "I'm just focused on getting Republicans elected this November, not worrying about 2012."  A non-denial denial.

[Bo]

It would hurt the GOP more.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Definitely Obama.

Bloomberg is every bit as liberal as Obama. 

He would draw from much the same constituency as Obama does, therefore, he definitely hurts Obama much more than he would any Republican candidate.

Now this leftist administration is going to dump more tax dollars into some kind of a stimulus bailout, driving up the historic high deficit even higher.

Liberal minded voters would very likely park their protest vote with another liberal, Bloomberg.  I cannot see more conservative minded voters parking their votes with liberal Bloomberg, rather, they would stick with the GOP candidate.

[pragmatic liberal]

Obama.

Bloomberg isn't going to run. And if he did run he would only run if Obama's approvals are really low. Strong third party bids typically occur when the incumbent is so unpopular that the main opposition party can't hold all the defecting voters.

Moreover, it's hard to see Bloomberg gaining much traction in any Red-leaning constituencies. His success would be among liberal-ish independents and disaffected Dems.

[feeblepizza]

Definitely Obama.

Bloomberg is every bit as liberal as Obama. 

He would draw from much the same constituency as Obama does, therefore, he definitely hurts Obama much more than he would any Republican candidate.

Now this leftist administration is going to dump more tax dollars into some kind of a stimulus bailout, driving up the historic high deficit even higher.

Liberal minded voters would very likely park their protest vote with another liberal, Bloomberg.  I cannot see more conservative minded voters parking their votes with liberal Bloomberg, rather, they would stick with the GOP candidate.

You've said it best

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Obama.  He'd be more popular among Republicans in New England states than in the rest of the country, but this area would already be going to Obama.

[Progressive]

If Bloomberg decided to run in 2012 do you understand how many New Yorkers would be furious about making such a big deal to extend a third term. Bloomberg would receive such bad press from his homestate,  IMO, that it would weaken his popularity abroad. Nevertheless, I feel that a Bloomberg candidacy would shave off fiscal conservatives from the GOP and potentially Jewish voters in NY, FL, and NJ. I think it would even out.

[Dan the Roman]

Depends on how well he would do. If Bloomberg wins 5-12% he probably hurts Obama the most because he will draw off upper income liberals, Jews, etc. On the other hand, the greater any third party candidate does, there comes a point where it will help Obama. Because of racial voting, the Democratic base is probably more solid in a lot of places than the Republican one, so Obama is pretty much guaranteed 41% of the vote in say, Mississippi no matter how badly he does nationally. Therefore in most of the south, him winning or losing states is more a function of the GOP vote total than his own. Though this is more of an argument for a Palin third party canadacy hurting.

Bloomberg just has zero appeal generally. And the Mosque thing would kill his republican appeal at this point.