Palin Leads By 10 in Economist Poll

[Poundingtherock]

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/07/polling_2

Palin 28%
Romney 18%
Gingrich 17%
Huckabee 13%
Daniels 4%

Economist polls are just as scientific as Rasmussen according to Nate Silver.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/is-poll-scientific-if-it-excludes-more.html

[Fuzzy]

LULZ, kind of surprising, but it is 2 years from the election.

[Mr. Morden]

This is an internet poll.  It's "scientific" in the same sense as Zogby Interactive.  Details of the poll are at the bottom of this file:

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Toplines20100721.pdf

[You kip if you want to...]

From the thread title, I thought this was in an Obama match-up. :|

[Poundingtherock]

link I provided to Nate Silver.  It's not like Zogby.

[Mr. Morden]

"One definition of how "scientific" a poll is is the percentage of the adult population that it can potentially hope to reach."

That's the sum total of the argument for why internet polls are scientific.....which is pretty silly.  Do internet polls have any track record whatsoever of predicting elections?  How have Yougov internet polls done in past cycles?

[Bo]

I hope this poll is accurate.

[Fuzzy]

I hope this poll is accurate.

I wish.  LOL

[Poundingtherock]

for Economist/yougov.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/zogby-broke-internet-but-it-can-be.html

[Mercenary]

I hope this poll is accurate.

Why? Because you want your side to win instead of both parties having the best possible candidate for America's future?

[NE Assembyman electoraljew2]

I hope this poll is accurate.

Why? Because you want your side to win instead of both parties having the best possible candidate for America's future?

[Bo]

I hope this poll is accurate.

Why? Because you want your side to win instead of both parties having the best possible candidate for America's future?

Personally, I think Obama can defeat any Republican. I want the Democrats to pick up a lot of seats in Congress, though, and the best way to do that would be to have a weak GOP nominee and thus have large coattails for Obama. That way, Obama can actually get something meaningful done in his second term if necessary.

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Obama would win in a 400+ landslide if Palin is the nominee.

[Free Palestine]

I hope this poll is accurate.

Why? Because you want your side to win instead of both parties having the best possible candidate for America's future?

[BushKenya]

Good News for President Obama.

[Frodo]

YES!!!  Now all we have to do is to get more respectable polls to verify this result, and to hold on to it until the primaries begin. 

[Mr. Morden]

YES!!!  Now all we have to do is to get more respectable polls to verify this result, and to hold on to it until the primaries begin. 

Every national telephone (rather than internet) poll since February has had either Romney, Huckabee, or Gingrich leading.  The last telephone poll with Palin in the lead was in January.....and that was Research 2000.

[Bo]

YES!!!  Now all we have to do is to get more respectable polls to verify this result, and to hold on to it until the primaries begin. 

Every national telephone (rather than internet) poll since February has had either Romney, Huckabee, or Gingrich leading.  The last telephone poll with Palin in the lead was in January.....and that was Research 2000.

Obama will still defeat any of them, so it doesn't really matter too much.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIGUbiPNpxs
Oh Sarah.

Go to about 2:20.

[Fuzzy]

This poll has to be way off.  It also states that the majority of GOPer's support civil unions, which can't be right.  I wish the poll was accurate, but it isn't.  There must of been a lot of Democrats in this poll.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I hope this poll is accurate.

Why? Because you want your side to win instead of both parties having the best possible candidate for America's future?

This wasn't addressed to me but there really aren't any notable Republican candidates that would be good for "America's future". I really don't know that Obama would be good for it either but he is still somewhat preferable to these other creatures.

[Poundingtherock]

There were a lot of Democrats polled...that's why they separate the categories between Democrats/Republicans/independents.

As for Republicans supporting civil unions, it often depends on how the question is framed.  If you offer Republicans a choice between civil unions and preventing gays from any partnership benefits, most of them would choose civil unions.  Supporting civil unions in Republican language means opposing any efforts to make gay marriage legal.  Civil unions is viewed as a compromise on this issue.

How would that benefit Palin anyway if the poll oversampled too many pro-civil union Republicans?  The conventional wisdom is that a poll with fewer pro-civil union Republicans would be even more favorable to her.  However, her appeal to Republicans is pretty broad (fiscal, social, and hawks).

[Fuzzy]

There were a lot of Democrats polled...that's why they separate the categories between Democrats/Republicans/independents.

As for Republicans supporting civil unions, it often depends on how the question is framed.  If you offer Republicans a choice between civil unions and preventing gays from any partnership benefits, most of them would choose civil unions.  Supporting civil unions in Republican language means opposing any efforts to make gay marriage legal.  Civil unions is viewed as a compromise on this issue.

How would that benefit Palin anyway if the poll oversampled too many pro-civil union Republicans?  The conventional wisdom is that a poll with fewer pro-civil union Republicans would be even more favorable to her.  However, her appeal to Republicans is pretty broad (fiscal, social, and hawks).

I realized that the civil union and gay marriage numbers arn't  just among Republican supporters, I misinterpreted the entire page as analyzing only GOP members.  That's why I thought they had a bad voter screening.  Sorry, my bad!