NH-01 & NH-02/UNH: Shea-Porter (D) and Bass/Horn (R) ahead

[Tender Branson]

NH-01:

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 43%
Rich Ashooh (R): 35%

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 44%
Bob Bestani (R): 33%

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 44%
Frank Guinta (R): 39%

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 45%
Sean Mahoney (R): 36%

NH-02:

Charlie Bass (R): 47%
Ann McLane Kuster (D): 29%

Charlie Bass (R): 47%
Katrina Swett (D): 30%

Jennifer Horn (R): 34%
Ann McLane Kuster (D): 32%

Jennifer Horn (R): 35%
Katrina Swett (D): 31%

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll,∗ conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred four (504) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between July 19 and July 27, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percent. Included was a subsample of 264 adults in the NH First Congressional District (margin of sampling error +/-6.0%), and a subsample of 240 Second Congressional District adults (margin of sampling error +/-6.3%).

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_summer_cong072910.pdf

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is a big improvement for CSP from the last UNH poll; previously she was trailing all her challengers.

On the other hand, it's getting even worse for the Dems in NH-02.

[Vepres]

Generally, in a year like this, being well under 40%, even if you are in the lead, is not good for a Democrat.

[Kevin]

Generally, in a year like this, being well under 40%, even if you are in the lead, is not good for a Democrat.

Wasn't it like that the last time that seat changed hands in 2006?

[Dan the Roman]

Generally, in a year like this, being well under 40%, even if you are in the lead, is not good for a Democrat.

.

Shea-Porter is doing much better than she did at this point in 2008. She was down four in July I believe in the UNH survey

[Holmes]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.wmur.com/newsarchive/24442162/detail.html

Being unknown at this point isn't a good thing.

[Mr.Phips]

Generally, in a year like this, being well under 40%, even if you are in the lead, is not good for a Democrat.

Not neccessarilly.  High right wing turnout is baked into most of these polls and if Republican candidates are not winning with that, they are probably losing.

[nhmagic]

Remember the rule about a UNH poll - if its UNH, add 8 (to the republican).  Porter will not make it through this year - pretty sure about that and Im in her district. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Remember the rule about a UNH poll - if its UNH, add 8 (to the republican).  Porter will not make it through this year - pretty sure about that and Im in her district. 

You just made that up.