How did your predictions go?
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  How did your predictions go?
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Author Topic: How did your predictions go?  (Read 6580 times)
The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2004, 05:59:09 PM »

I missed Ohio.
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No more McShame
FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2004, 06:29:40 PM »

Missed WI & MN.  Overstated Republican EV by 20 assuming IA goes for Bush.

Understated Bush's PV by 0.5%

Overstated Kerry's PV by 0.5%

Overstated Republican gain in the House by 1

Understated Republican gain in the Senate by 1
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Brandon H
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« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2004, 06:31:10 PM »

If Iowa goes to Kerry I got everyone correct as far as who wins. I did not spend much time on actual win percentages. I did my final predictions some time on Monday. Fox and CNN both have Iowa as gray or white and have not given either candidate its votes.
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tinman64
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« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2004, 07:48:57 PM »

If IA goes to Bush, I got every state right except OH.
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J. J.
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« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2004, 08:22:41 PM »

According to MSNBC, the states of NM, IA, WI, and NH are leaning to Bush.  There could be 26 EV out there for Bush.

OH might not have been as important in retrospect.
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A18
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« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2004, 08:25:48 PM »

Huh? I thought Kerry had already won Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
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J-Mann
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« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2004, 08:29:56 PM »

Have they not called WI and NH?  Maybe absentees coming in?  I hadn't heard that, but I will follow up on this.

My Atlas projection was very close, actually.  Wisconsin was the only state I had wrong (considering things stay as they are now).
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Niles Caulder
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« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2004, 02:05:14 PM »

I missed New Hampshire, and I underestimated the margin of popular victory in Bush's favor.

But in all other respects, Niles' predictions came to pass as forseen!
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dazzleman
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« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2004, 04:23:29 PM »

I think I posted earlier that Bush would win the popular vote by a 51%-47% margin.  I got that pretty close.

I thought he would win a couple of more states and get about 300 electoral votes.  The ones that he lost that I expected him to have a good chance to win were New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #34 on: November 05, 2004, 04:35:43 PM »

I got Ohio and Wis wrong
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Light Touch
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« Reply #35 on: November 05, 2004, 05:06:47 PM »

WI and MN wrong here.
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kwab
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« Reply #36 on: November 05, 2004, 07:51:24 PM »

Ohio and Wisconsin wrong.


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ilikeverin
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« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2004, 08:47:22 PM »

Ohio and Wisconsin wrong.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2004, 09:31:01 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2004, 09:52:04 PM by CARLHAYDEN »

My worst case scenatio was Bush 286, Kerry 252 in the Electoral College.

My percentage for Bush was 51.10% (looks like he got 51.07% at this time).  Pretty close.

Kerry did slightly better than my prediction with (apparently) 47.99% versus my prediction of 44.97%.

I wonder if the phony polls encouraged people who would have preferred Nader to vote for Kerry on the basis that they mistakenly believed he could be elected.

The only state seriously off was Vermont, which the Bush campaign abandoned as not worth the effort.

Kerry won every state I predicted he would win, and (except for Vermont) did NOT receive more than 53.04% in any of the states he won which I think he would have lost.

I still conder about the military/absentee votes in Pennsylvania.
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