New Jersey 1992

[Kevin]

Maybe this has been asked before, but why in 1992 was New Jersey so close? I mean if Perot weren't on the ballot, or if HW Bush had actually managed to win the election he most likely would have won the state handily IMHO.

[Bo]

Maybe this has been asked before, but why in 1992 was New Jersey so close? I mean if Perot weren't on the ballot, or if HW Bush had actually managed to win the election he most likely would have won the state handily IMHO.

NJ was just a little more Republican than the national average in the 1980s, so Clinton managed to win NJ due to his relative large nationwide PV victory.

[Thomas D]

A kind of moderate Republican with roots in the Northeast against a southern Democrat. I could see how Bush almost won NJ. The state was a swing state before these past few elections. It went GOP in '68 and '76.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Clinton's popularity is probably the reason it has swung so much to the Democrats. 

Plus, although Ross Perot did split manny votes away from Bush, he also split a fair amount from Clinton as well.  Bush probably would have won the state, but I think it would be close anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

New Jersey has continuously been a republican-leaning State since 1968. The real surprise is the massive democratic swing there from 1992 to 1996, though the "northernization" of the democrats and the conservative revolution inside the GOP in the mid 1990s can explain it.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

The backlash against Democrats due to Jim Florio's tax hike contributed to NJ being close as well.  The backlash lasted from 1990 until 1993 or so, when Florio was defeated.  Also, George ush did not do too badly in the Northeast in 1992.  Losing NH was a big surprise, but he did do reasonably well in Connecticut, which I thnk happened from the same reason that NJ was much more friendly to the GOP in 1992 than 1996.  Between those two elections, the electoral map shifted in favor of the Dems due to the Northeast moving so hard towards them.

[Mr.Phips]

In "The War Room", there is a scene on election night where James Carville is shocked to find out that New Jersey was close when they expected the state to go easily for Clinton.  Most polls showed a 10-12 point Clinton lead in the state leading up to the election.

New Jersey was part of Bush's late firewall strategy to pull a Truman 1948.  The Bush people thought if they could hold New Jersey, Ohio, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, and Michigan and snag Iowa and Wisconsin away from Clinton, they could pull off the upset.