similarity to 2000
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  similarity to 2000
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Author Topic: similarity to 2000  (Read 1318 times)
willhsmit
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« on: November 03, 2004, 10:20:21 PM »


It's pretty amazing that the results, at least in the EC, are so simiular to 2000. Only 3 states (unless something changes) have changed color.

Out of curiosity, I checked to see which other (consecutive) elections have been so close.

1992-1996 -- 5 state changes
1980-1984 -- 5 state changes (all one way)
1952-1956 -- 4 state changes

1904-1908 -- 3 states changed, but since OK was admitted you could conceivable argue that there were 4 differences.

1884-1888 -- 2 states changed.

Before that you start getting into times which different definitions of party. Still, the low change-over is striking -- the conventional wisdom of using the margins in 2000 to pick out battlegrounds for this year is definitely vindicated to an extent that it wouldn't have been in other years, and all of the states that did change were ones that had extremely close margins in 2000.
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