TX State House & Senate Elections - 2010
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2011, 11:07:13 AM »

does anyone know how Rick Perry did in each of the house and senate districts? That is a better indicator of a district's political leanings than how Obama or McCain did in the district.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2011, 11:39:05 AM »

does anyone know how Rick Perry did in each of the house and senate districts? That is a better indicator of a district's political leanings than how Obama or McCain did in the district.

The numbers on the State House/Senate websites haven't been updated yet. 

However, don't expect the two to be terribly different, except that I would guess Perry ran a bit better (2-3%) in suburbia and a bit worse in rural Texas (probably by greater %), except in South Texas where he probably ran better.  Urban Texas - probably the same.

I mean, just compare the two maps:

2008 (margin - 11.76%)
McCain 55.39%
Obama 43.63%



2010 (margin - 12.67%)
Perry 54.97%
White 42.30%

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jimrtex
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2011, 04:08:54 PM »

does anyone know how Rick Perry did in each of the house and senate districts? That is a better indicator of a district's political leanings than how Obama or McCain did in the district.

The numbers on the State House/Senate websites haven't been updated yet. 

Perry was a drag on the statewide ticket.

The first lawsuit has been filed in Texas.  It makes two claims: that the census population includes undocumented immigrants, denying the plaintiffs equal protection under the 14th Amendment; and second that the current districts are not equally populated.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2011, 04:13:57 PM »

Lol at that Trinity of small Rural White Counties voting for White - Falls, Foard & Trinity.
All three gave right about 60% to McCain fwiw (not much - if all rural 60% McCain Counties had gone to White the map would be a fair bit redder.)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2011, 04:23:02 PM »

Lol at that Trinity of small Rural White Counties voting for White - Falls, Foard & Trinity.
All three gave right about 60% to McCain fwiw (not much - if all rural 60% McCain Counties had gone to White the map would be a fair bit redder.)

Well, Foard has a long history of voting Democratic.

Falls County has blacks, did tend to go Dem pre-2000 and I suspect is probably still pissed off at the whole TTC thingy.

Trinity did go Democratic in non-blowout Prez elections prior to 2000, including a bit stronger than surrounding areas in 1996, but why so different in this election than the surrounding territories.  Any clue.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2011, 05:33:55 AM »

Lol at that Trinity of small Rural White Counties voting for White - Falls, Foard & Trinity.
All three gave right about 60% to McCain fwiw (not much - if all rural 60% McCain Counties had gone to White the map would be a fair bit redder.)

Well, Foard has a long history of voting Democratic.

Falls County has blacks, did tend to go Dem pre-2000 and I suspect is probably still pissed off at the whole TTC thingy.

Trinity did go Democratic in non-blowout Prez elections prior to 2000, including a bit stronger than surrounding areas in 1996, but why so different in this election than the surrounding territories.  Any clue.
ftp://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/i_69/maps/fig_es24.pdf

The TTC was supposed to provide enough land for an limited access freeway, a totally separate truck freeway, high speed rail, and pipelines, in a 1200 foot corridor (about 1/4 mile or 365 m).  And then when they set up the study areas they assumed a totally new alignment and were simply figuring the best route over a study area that would be up to 5 miles wide, but it is easy for people to get confused and think the highway will be 5 miles wide.

In the case of I-69, they are still trying to figure a routing through Houston.  US-59 (Eastex and Southwest freeways) are not the best routes for heavy truck traffic - and hazard materials would probably be required to bypass them).  Some proposals have suggested upgrading existing links, such as I-610 (North and West Loop), which is just a little bit better than 59, since it doesn't go directly by downtown, but does run by the Galleria; Texas 8 (North and West Belt/Sam Houston Tollway), a little more reasonable, but land constrained in areas.  Texas 99 (Grand Parkway).  This hasn't been built in the NW area yet, and they've run into funding constraints and routing problems.  There is also a desire to connect to the Ship Channel and the container facility south of the ship channel.

But it you are transporting cars from Hermosillo to Detroit, you'd really want to bypass Houston completely, which gives you the route through Trinity County.  Because it has to swing north above the flood pool for Lake Livingston it is even longer.

So you have:

Trinity: Perry 47%, Abbott 67% (20%)
Walker: 54 vs. 72 (18%)
Grimes: 59 vs. 74 (15%)
Waller: 56 vs. 67 (11%)
Liberty: 64% vs. 77% *13%)
Wharton: 53% vs 73% (20%)
Jackson: 61% vs. 78% (17%)
Goliad: 55% vs. 72% (17%)

The more rural the county, the bigger the difference.  If there is a city of any sort, then there are people who see a benefit of being on a major transportation corridor.

The TTC in Central Texas would have been east of I-35, because you are in the Hill Country if you go west, and the idea is to bypass Waco, Temple, Austin, etc.  So you have"

Falls: 47% vs 64% (17%)
Hill: 61% vs. 77% (16%)

Statewide: 55% vs 64% (9%)

White won Foard County 153:148, the two counties that Perry and Obama won are counties where being the mayor of Houston would not be big selling points (Brewster in the Big Bend, which Perry carried by 1 vote) and Kenedy which is mostly the King Ranch, which Perry carried 109:88.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2011, 05:39:28 AM »

The more rural the county, the bigger the difference.  If there is a city of any sort, then there are people who see a benefit of being on a major transportation corridor.

I doubt that that's anything to do with it. Rural areas in the United States vote on candidates and issues. Suburban areas in the United States vote on candidates' partisan affiliation.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2011, 12:08:10 PM »

The more rural the county, the bigger the difference.  If there is a city of any sort, then there are people who see a benefit of being on a major transportation corridor.

I doubt that that's anything to do with it. Rural areas in the United States vote on candidates and issues. Suburban areas in the United States vote on candidates' partisan affiliation.
Rurality is a relative term.  The urban population in the US is that living in places of 2500 or more persons.  Rural is anything that is not urban. 

Trinity County has no urban population.  The particular appeal of the area is relative short distance from a major city on a lake.  You drive north an hour or so, and then drive to your 2nd home/retirement home in a bucolic city.  A 1/4 wide highway with limited access has no appeal.

The Perry-Abbott difference was much higher in Trinity County than counties such as Houston, San Augustine, San Jacincto, and Sabine, though admittedly Houston does have Crockett.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2011, 12:13:54 PM »

I wasn't doubting for one second that the motorway project affected Perry's vote in the area in question. Sounds perfectly reasonable.
It was merely the "in the more urban places, there are people who see a benefit of being on a major transportation corridor" part I considered to be an Occam's Razor Fail. Towns being less affected than rural areas by such a swing - whether on an issue as here, or just a grotesquely bad candidate - is exactly what you would expect.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2011, 10:28:59 PM »

State House

HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.

Neil (R) 24,982   48.51%, Howard (D) 24,997 48.54%, Easton (L) 1,517 2.94%
Howard wins election contest by 4.
Rather, the special master has issued his report.  It now is considered by the contest committee.

The standard of proof is "clear and convincing evidence" that illegally cast votes or legal votes that were excluded would have changed the outcome.

After the recount it was: Howard 25,023, Neil 25,011.

30 voters filled out a statement of residence indicating an out-of-county residence, and shouldn't have been permitted to vote.  If you reside in the county, but at a different residence, you can vote.

15 admitted to have voted for Howard, 8 admitted to have voted for Neil, and these were subtracted.   5 could not recall who they voted for (note that in Texas, there is only a secret ballot for legal votes).  So even though they were illegal votes, there is not clear and convincing evidence that it would have changed the result.

2 claimed to still live in Travis County, even though when they voted, they provided an external residence.  One said she stayed with different friends, and gave an address of a relative so it would be a permanent mailing address.  The other was in the "process" of moving.  She had changed her drivers license in July, and had filed for a homestead exemption for her house (this is only legal for owner-occupied houses).  But on election day she still considered her daughters house to be her domicile.  She gave the new address so her voting address could be updated.

So again there is not clear and convincing evidence that they resided outside the county, even though they gave an out-of-county address when asked if they lived at the address on their voting registration.

So after changes: Howard 25,008, Neil 25,003.

35 voters who were on the suspense list should have been required to prove their residence, but there is no record of them doing so.  Some in fact did still live at their registered address, but it sounds like some couldn't be found.  But there is not clear and convincing evidence that the failure to prove their residence was their fault and not the election officials.  So there is not a clear and convincing evidence that they resided outside the county.

1 voter whose registered was not effective on election day.  He voted for Neil.

So after changes: Howard 25,008, Neil 25,002.

4 4 absentee ballots were not counted.

It was agreed that two should have been counted.  Each candidate got one vote.

One voter had not signed her application for an absentee ballot, and the election officials should have secured her signature, but instead sent her a ballot.  When she returned it, it didn't match the signature on the application, since there was no signature on the application.  This was counted, as a voter for Neil.

One voter had applied for an absentee ballot but had mailed it from Travis County before flying to Germany.  Texas law requires absentee voters to be absent from the county for the entire election period including early voting, and mail absentee ballots from outside the county.  The voter was out of the country for the entire election period, but had mailed it before he had left, before early voting started.  Technically he is at fault, so the ballot has not been opened, but the voter claims that he voted for Neil, and had based his action from advice by a clerk, so the vote was counted.

After changes: Howard 25,009, Neil 25,005.

2 votes were alleged to be double voters.  It turned out that they had similar names to other voters, so no change.

222 voters were mailed ballots outside the country, after having filed a Federal Post Card Application ("FPCA").  The FPCA application has check boxes that let voters indicate whether they were (1) Military or their dependents; (2) Residing outside the country temporarily; or (3) Residing outside the country indefinitely.

The 222 voters in category (3) may vote a federal ballot only.  They were sent a full ballot with the non-federal races crossed off, but including a straight ticket box that applied to the congressional race only.  When the ballots were returned, any extraneous marks on the ballot were removed with a duplicate being made.  191 of these voters also voted in 2008 using FPCA. 

But there is no clear and convincing evidence that voters excluded legal votes, even though voters may not have understood the difference between living outside the country with no definite time of return; and those whose intent to return the USA is indefinite.  I doubt that any voter could be definitely sure which category they belong in since they evidently retain some affinity for their country.  I doubt that any election official could prove it either way.
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