State Legislatures and Redistricting
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Author Topic: State Legislatures and Redistricting  (Read 50056 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #125 on: November 07, 2010, 04:22:48 PM »


The more trouble DeWeese gets himself in, the more popular he becomes.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #126 on: November 08, 2010, 07:54:25 AM »

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #127 on: November 08, 2010, 09:33:41 AM »

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

There was also a bipartisan bill introduced to do so.

That said, Maine very rarely crosses town lines in districting. Any effort to gerrymander, especially given some of the bizzareness of the 2010 result would be risky and might backfire immensely. Really the only thing that could be done is to move Lewiston/Auburn to the second congressional district. House districts are too small to gerrymander.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #128 on: November 08, 2010, 09:54:11 AM »

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

There was also a bipartisan bill introduced to do so.

That said, Maine very rarely crosses town lines in districting. Any effort to gerrymander, especially given some of the bizzareness of the 2010 result would be risky and might backfire immensely. Really the only thing that could be done is to move Lewiston/Auburn to the second congressional district. House districts are too small to gerrymander.

I think gerrymandering is one of those obscure "beltway" issues that is pretty hard to get people really riled up about. They might vote for a non-partisan redistricting amendment, but they probably wouldn't care enough about it to vote against egregiously gerrymandering politicians. (Can anyone cite any examples to contest my hypothesis?)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #129 on: November 08, 2010, 09:56:44 AM »

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".
Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012. It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #130 on: November 08, 2010, 12:18:55 PM »

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".
Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012. It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.

Maine is also not the sort of state that would tolerate a party gerrymandering itself into power. About 3/4 of Maine voters are perfectly willing to vote for either party or for independents, and they would toss the Republicans (or Democrats) out on their ears if they gerrymandered the state legislature.

Not true in most states. True in Maine.
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BRTD
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« Reply #131 on: November 08, 2010, 01:23:02 PM »

Regionalism is actually a big deal in Maine. I think this is why they have the split electoral votes. The GOP holds only a four seat majority in the State House, meaning it'd take only two crossovers to kill a map. I suspect that with how small State House seats are in Maine there are at least two Reps who'd vote against a map shoving their areas into the Portland-area seat.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #132 on: November 08, 2010, 07:21:06 PM »

SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #133 on: November 08, 2010, 07:46:21 PM »

SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?

Some cursory Googling suggests that Thompson was a miserable failure of a representative.
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« Reply #134 on: November 08, 2010, 07:54:09 PM »

Paladino "coattails" in Erie County as well, maybe?
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #135 on: November 08, 2010, 08:11:52 PM »

SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?

Some cursory Googling suggests that Thompson was a miserable failure of a representative.

Yeah, it was basically like LA-02, only minus the big-ticket scandal. Grisanti is a one-termer for sure, and no amount of gerrymandering will save him since doing so would require leaving some other Republican very vulnerable.
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BRTD
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« Reply #136 on: November 08, 2010, 09:47:02 PM »

Where's a map of that seat? And how much did it give Obama?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #137 on: November 08, 2010, 09:58:01 PM »

http://www.nysenate.gov/district/60
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #138 on: November 08, 2010, 10:15:15 PM »

SD-60 gave Obama 77%.
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BRTD
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« Reply #139 on: November 08, 2010, 10:17:30 PM »

Uh, wow. That probably sets a record for State Senate districts held by Republicans nationwide.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #140 on: November 08, 2010, 10:22:07 PM »

How many absentees are out in this district?
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #141 on: November 08, 2010, 10:30:49 PM »

So suppose the GOP wins the state Senate, how do they gerrymander a way for them to hold it in 2012 presuming that SD-60 is a near certain loss? They'd need to convert another Democratic seat.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #142 on: November 08, 2010, 10:44:58 PM »

So suppose the GOP wins the state Senate, how do they gerrymander a way for them to hold it in 2012 presuming that SD-60 is a near certain loss? They'd need to convert another Democratic seat.

They cant gerrymander it as Cuomo has veto. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #143 on: November 08, 2010, 10:47:06 PM »

Maybe they'll just add a seat again, like they did in 2000. At least then it'd be an odd number again, so no ties.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #144 on: November 08, 2010, 11:01:24 PM »

Uh, wow. That probably sets a record for State Senate districts held by Republicans nationwide.

Highest I can find otherwise is the Washington County district in Vermont, 69% Obama, returns two Republicans and a Democrat. IIRC Frank Padavan's seat in Queens is 66% Obama, but he lost this year.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #145 on: November 08, 2010, 11:36:18 PM »

So what's the current total in the NY Senate?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #146 on: November 08, 2010, 11:42:20 PM »

So what's the current total in the NY Senate?

30 GOP-29 Dem with 3 undecided, but that article was a few days old, so some have been called by now, most likely.
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #147 on: November 08, 2010, 11:53:57 PM »

So what's the current total in the NY Senate?

30 GOP-29 Dem with 3 undecided, but that article was a few days old, so some have been called by now, most likely.

Thanks. New York would really turn into a fail state if they a have a repeat of the Senate fiasco from 2009.
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cinyc
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« Reply #148 on: November 09, 2010, 12:01:00 AM »

So what's the current total in the NY Senate?

30 GOP-29 Dem with 3 undecided, but that article was a few days old, so some have been called by now, most likely.

Nothing has been called in New York.  Absentees can still trickle in as long as they were postmarked before Election Day (I'm not sure about on).  As far as I know, none have even been opened yet - unless they started today.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #149 on: November 09, 2010, 10:28:08 AM »

The sad thing is that if the Dems had held the state senate in NY they could have undone the GOP gerrymander for the senate districts and had a strong chance of holding it for a while. Then again, they didn't exactly prove themselves worthy of having a majority over the last two years so maybe it's for the best. What a dysfunctional state government..
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