State Legislatures and Redistricting

[-]

Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...

[jimrtex]

Is Peña angling for a gubernatorial appointment after he's served his purpose in this term of the legislature? Was he paid off somehow? He won't be reelected in this district, so it won't serve his political career, but I could see him finding an alternative to being a minority party legislator appealing.

Pretty interesting interview.  Listen to the sound clips.

Aaron Peña Explains Decision to Join GOP Party

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just another day in New York... (With news like this, it's not exactly surprising that the Republicans won back the State Senate.)

[jimrtex]

Are the current Texas state legislative districts the ones drawn following the 2000 census?  I did not think that Delay's redistricting plan affected them--I thought his plan only redrew the Congressional districts.

The current districts were drawn following the 2000 Census, by the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB).  Under the Texas Constitution, if the legislature fails to redistrict, the LRB draws the districts, which was what happened in 2001.  The LRB is comprised of the Attorney General (then John Cornyn); Lt. Governor (Bill Ratliff who had been chosen by the senators when Rick Perry became governor following George W. Bush becoming president); Speaker of The House (Pete Laney); Commissioner of the General Land Office (then David Dewhurst); and Comptroller (then Carole of the many names).

The reason that the legislature failed to draw legislative district boundaries in 2001, was because the House and Senate were under opposite party control, plus the Democrats had already decided to push congressional districting into the courts.

There are no equivalent provisions for congressional redistricting, which falls on the legislature under terms of the US Constitution that times, places, and manner of congressional elections is prescribed by the legislature of each State (subject to congressional override).

I suspect that the legislature will manage to redistrict the legislature in 2011, since there is no advantage to let the LRB do it if you are a Democrat.

[rbt48]

Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...

I'd say that, after  this November's elections, redistricting will put Democrats behind the eight-ball in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana (probably), North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma,and Wyoming, in addition to Texas and Kansas.  Of course, regarding Congress,  Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, and South Carolina can't get much worse for the Democrats.  Also, for the one-seat states, or already all-Republican states, redistricting won't change anything.  But the state legislative district boundaries will be less-favorable for Democrats like their worst dreams.  I'd add Florida except for the new non-partisan redistricting law. 

For Democrats, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and Washington should offer some hope.  Hawaii too.  But most of these states can't get worse for Republicans.  I guess Illinois is the brightest spot for Democrats in terms of making things tougher for Republicans.

[I'm Not a Witch]

Can anyone make a map of the relative GOP gains per state legislature (i.e. percent of Democratic seats that changed hands), since some states where control of chamber flipped, it was already close before the election, and also some states have different numbers of Representatives in their legislature.

I think I did this correctly, nclib. Had to research how to figure out the arithmetic correctly, but I think this is what you're looking for. To determine the percentage change, I took the number of seats that the Democrats held after the 2010 midterm elections and subtracted that from the number of seats the Democrats held before the midterms.

The map is just for the state House of Representatives (I'll do the state Senates after I post this) and just shows the percentage of seats that Democrats lost (colored in red). California is blue because Republicans lost a seat there (only state in the nation where Democrats gained "seats" in the state House of Representatives). Gray states indicate those where no elections were held or there was no change in party composition, and Nebraska is colored green since they have a unicameral/nonpartisan legislature.

Here's my math, in case you want to double check my work. I organized it from greatest Democratic seat losses to lowest.

PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC HOUSE SEAT LOSSES
New Hampshire: (225 - 102 = 123/225 = 54.667%)
Wyoming: (19 - 10 = 9/19 = 47.368%)
Alabama: (62 - 39 = 23/62 = 37.097%)
Montana: (50 - 32 = 18/50 = 36.000%)
Texas: (74 - 49 = 25/74 = 33.784%)
Kansas: (49 - 33 = 16/49 = 32.653%)
Tennessee: (49 - 34 = 15/49 = 30.612%)
North Dakota: (36 - 25 = 11/36 = 30.556%)
Michigan: (67 - 47 = 20/67 = 29.851%)
Iowa: (57 - 40 = 17/57 = 29.825%)
Minnesota: (87 - 62 = 25/87 = 28.736%)
Idaho: (18 - 13 = 5/18 = 27.778%)
Wisconsin: (52 - 38 = 14/52 = 26.923%)
Ohio: (53 - 40 = 13/53 = 24.528%)
Maine: (95 - 72 = 23/95 = 24.211%)
North Carolina: (68 - 52 = 16/68 = 23.529%)
Arkansas: (72 - 55 = 17/72 = 23.611%)
Missouri: (74 - 57 = 17/74 = 22.973%)
Utah: (22 - 17 = 5/22 = 22.727%)
Oklahoma: (40 - 31 = 9/40 = 22.500%)
Indiana: (52 - 41 = 11/52 = 21.154%)
South Dakota: (24 - 19 = 5/24 = 20.833%)
New Mexico: (45 - 37 = 8/45 = 17.778%)
Arizona: (24 - 20 = 4/24 = 16.667%)
Oregon: (36 - 30 = 6/36 = 16.667%)
Colorado: (38 - 32 = 6/38 = 15.789%)
Pennsylvania: (104 - 91 = 13/104 = 12.500%)
Washington: (64 - 56 = 8/64 = 12.500%)
Georgia: (75 - 66 = 9/75 = 12.000%)
Connecticut: (113 - 100 = 13/113 = 11.504%)
Florida: (44 - 39 = 5/44 = 11.364%)
Alaska: (18 - 16 = 2/18 = 11.111%)
Kentucky: (65 - 58 = 7/65 = 10.769%)
Massachusetts: (144 - 129 = 15/144 = 10.417%)
South Carolina: (53 - 48 = 5/53 = 9.434%)
Illinois: (70 - 64 = 6/70 = 8.571%)
West Virginia: (71 - 65 = 6/71 = 8.451%)
Nevada: (28 - 26 = 2/28 = 7.143%)
New York: (107 - 100 = 7/107 = 6.542%)
Rhode Island: (69 - 65 = 4/69 = 5.797%)
Maryland: (104 - 98 = 6/104 = 5.769%)
Louisiana: (53 - 50 = 3/53 = 5.660%)
Hawaii: (45 - 43 = 2/45 = 4.444%)
Mississippi: (75 - 72 = 3/75 = 4.000%)
Vermont: (95 - 92 = 3/95 = 3.158%)

PERCENTAGE OF REPUBLICAN HOUSE SEAT LOSSES
California: (29 - 28 = 1/29 = 3.448%)

[Nichlemn]

Nice map, but a couple of things:


- The Democrats gained 2 seats in the Delaware House.
- MS/LA should be grey because no elections were held, even if there have been some defections, because it makes it look like they didn't swing much.

[cinyc]

Just another day in New York... (With news like this, it's not exactly surprising that the Republicans won back the State Senate.)

Ah, the wonderful Pedro Espada - so corrupt that he was booted from office in the Democratic primary.

Espada is far from the only crook in the New York State Senate.  Members of both parties are extremely corrupt.  They probably could arrest half the body if they seriously looked into their extracurricular activities.   Only a handful have even been brought up on charges so far.  

[Frodo]

Louisiana House now officially has a Republican majority for the first time since Reconstruction -still awaiting word on the Senate...

[redcommander]

California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't.

How about you stop whining about how the state you lived in didn't vote the way you wanted it to. It's getting really tiring.

[cinyc]

California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't.

Please continue remarking about how the voters of your state didn't vote like the rest of the country.  It is relevant.

[redcommander]

California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't.

Please continue remarking about how the voters of your state didn't vote like the rest of the country.  It is relevant.

I was just pointing it out. The state is just too far gone to have a wave affect them anymore I guess.

[ajc0918]

Seems to me like the blue dogs could soon become extinct.

[Frodo]

Seems to me like the blue dogs could soon become extinct.

In the South, perhaps.  Though we'll have to see if you can hold on to what you have just won, as well as take over the remaining southern Blue Dog strongholds in the Mississippi, Arkansas, and West Virginia legislatures, including the Louisiana and Virginia senate chambers, and the Kentucky house. 

[rbt48]

I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

I found a breakout of the officially non-partisan Nebraska Unicameral in the OWH:
http://www.omaha.com/article/20101122/NEWS01/711229930

It is amusing to me how, in spite of it being a non-partisan body, I can't recall a governor here filling a vacancy with someone from the other party, no matter how strongly the vacant district may be.  Ben Nelson appointed a Democrat to a very strongly Republican district in Sarpy County, for example.  Though, I do recall that Bob Kerrey appointed a Republican Attorney General when Paul Douglas was forced out of office.

[Holmes]

California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't.

Please continue remarking about how the voters of your state didn't vote like the rest of the country.  It is relevant.

Or perhaps, the rest of the country didn't vote like California. Hmm.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...

I'd say that, after  this November's elections, redistricting will put Democrats behind the eight-ball in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana (probably), North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma,and Wyoming, in addition to Texas and Kansas.  Of course, regarding Congress,  Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, and South Carolina can't get much worse for the Democrats.  Also, for the one-seat states, or already all-Republican states, redistricting won't change anything.  But the state legislative district boundaries will be less-favorable for Democrats like their worst dreams.  I'd add Florida except for the new non-partisan redistricting law. 

In most of these legislatures, Democrats cant possibly fall any lower.  In Alabama, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, Democrats are basically down to black/Hispanic majority and urban liberal districts.  In Idaho, Utah, and the Dakotas, Democrats are down to nothing but a few liberal inner city districts.  In Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Democrats were basically swept out of everywhere but inner cities and some traditionally Democratic maufacturing areas. 

Democrats are basically at the point in state legislatures(and the US House), where they have almost nothing left to lose.  Even the Southern and midwestern rural areas that held somewhat in 1994 left in 2010.  The former will likely come back in 2012 or 2014, but the latter will be very difficult. 

[cinyc]

I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

As far as I know, there's only one Assembly seat up in the air in New York - AD 100 in Dutchess/Orange/Ulster.  The Republican won reelection in the close Westchester AD.  The Assembly is at 99-50.  I think Republicans need 51 to stave off a party-line veto override (which is kind of irrelevant with a Democratic governor, though).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It would seem to be even more irrelevant considering the Senate is held by the Republicans.

[rbt48]

I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

As far as I know, there's only one Assembly seat up in the air in New York - AD 100 in Dutchess/Orange/Ulster.  The Republican won reelection in the close Westchester AD.  The Assembly is at 99-50.  I think Republicans need 51 to stave off a party-line veto override (which is kind of irrelevant with a Democratic governor, though).

Thanks!  I'll update the NY State Assembly to 99 - 50 - 1.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Which districts in Mass and Indiana are undecided?

[jimrtex]

There is a Texas House seat in Travis County that is being contested after a recount left it with a 12 vote margin.

Among issues are:

Overseas ballots where straight ticket votes for non-federal contests were not counted.  If a voter is permanently non-resident (residing overseas) they are only allowed to vote in federal races.  But they were sent regular ballots, with some races crossed off (it appears in somewhat haphazard fashion).  When the ballots were returned, new ballots were created with only the federal races marked.  This may have been improperly done, if a voter was eligible to vote a full ballot.

It appears some mail-in votes were not counted based on perceived signature mismatches, but where a signature appears to match that on the voter registration.

One ballot was not counted because it was mailed from within Travis County (in Texas, you can only vote by mail if you intend to be out of the county for both the early voting and election day; or are over 65, physically disabled, or incarcerated).  In this case the ballot was sent to Germany, but then the voter apparently returned and mailed it from inside the county.

Ineligible voters.  This claims up to 1900 ineligible may have voted.

In Texas, an election contest for the legislature is treated as a legal case, but is heard by the legislature.

[Former Moderate]

Which districts in Mass and Indiana are undecided?

None in Mass. The recount in the Worcester district finished long ago, and the Republican won 6,587 to 6,586.

[rbt48]

Do did Mass end up at 128D, 32R?