State Legislatures and Redistricting

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

[Frodo]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

[Mr.Phips]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures?  

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

I generally agree.  I actually expect Democrats to narrowly hold the Iowa House(where there are some open Republican seats in very Democratic areas).  I think Republicans get the North Carolina Senate, but fall just short in the House and for Democrats to barely hold the New York State Senate(losing one net seat for a 31-31 tie that is broken by Cuomo's LG).  Democrats might the Alabama House, but Im unsure.  Another possibility is the Wisconsin Senate. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

Absolutely, I'm just not sure whether they can win both houses. They recruited candidates for every Dem seat in the Senate but left several House seats uncontested.

[Mr.Phips]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

Absolutely, I'm just not sure whether they can win both houses. They recruited candidates for every Dem seat in the Senate but left several House seats uncontested.

I think they will probably win the Senate. 

[nclib]

Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York  Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)



How will this all play out?

The map predates the primaries, and doesn't reflect governorships that are polling differently than they did in Jan. It would be handy to update it to reflect those changes as well.

I've shifted several states that now clearly favor one party or the other. The rest I've kept as is.

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

[rob in cal]

Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

[Dgov]

Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

Actually, that will be an interesting process to watch.  Given that prop 20 has some provisions about maintaining income hegemony within their districts, it might actually be very similar to the current map.

[Free Palestine]

Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

Actually, that will be an interesting process to watch.  Given that prop 20 has some provisions about maintaining income hegemony within their districts, it might actually be very similar to the current map.

That's a retarded provision to have.

[Invisible Obama]

I think the income hegemony provision is to assure compactness. It wasn't a Congressional district, but in the previous redistricting for the State Senate had a district run from Compton to Rancho Palos Verdes, which was done only to neutralize a Republican leaning area.

[Dgov]

Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

Actually, that will be an interesting process to watch.  Given that prop 20 has some provisions about maintaining income hegemony within their districts, it might actually be very similar to the current map.

That's a retarded provision to have.

Yeah it is.  But i'd still much rather take that power from the legislature.

[Frodo]

The GOP has just taken the Alabama legislature as well as the North Carolina Senate.  The North Carolina House may follow suit as well. 

[Frodo]

Republicans have just taken over both houses of the North Carolina legislature.  Only Arkansas and West Virginia withstand the GOP surge in the South.

[Nichlemn]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

[J. J.]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

[Nichlemn]

Here it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

[Mr.Phips]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

[Sibboleth]

Here it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

Wait, DeWeese managed to win? How the frack?

[Sam Spade]

As posted on another thread, basically every GOP house seat the Dems took in Texas in the last 6 years fell tonight, including, amusingly, Solomon Ortiz, Jr.

[Nichlemn]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

I think the object of redistricting will be making the freshman incumbents safer.

[Mr.Phips]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

I think the object of redistricting will be making the freshman incumbents safer.

Its going to be very difficult to do so in both states. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.

[Mr.Phips]

In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.

Same thing passed in Florida. 

[Nichlemn]

If those results hold, that's probably a net loss for Republicans, who might have got a compromise map out of CA again regardless.

[Lief]

These results are a disaster. Republicans have the trifecta in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Probably in FL as well, but luckily the anti-gerrymandering referendum passed.