State Legislatures and Redistricting
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Author Topic: State Legislatures and Redistricting  (Read 50052 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2010, 06:48:14 AM »

I have seen proposed ideas in Indiana that would basically cut Indianapolis up enough to put Carson in deep danger in 2012. Donnelly also won't be safe, especially if there's a anti-Democratic mood. Visclosky is the only Democrat who should be completely safe from redistricting.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #51 on: November 03, 2010, 08:10:06 AM »

I've tried to start this thread in the redistricting forum but here's where everyone ie.

These results are a disaster. Republicans have the trifecta in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Probably in FL as well, but luckily the anti-gerrymandering referendum passed.

It's the worst it could have been, but it's not a disaster, outside of Pa. Republicans dominated the process in four of the five states in 2002 and in Indiana they already banked their gains from redistricting yesterday, although they can try to take out Donnelly. He looks like a survivor to me after yesterday.

PA-12 can still be dismantled and they can try to shore up the eastern districts, which is the best possible outcome for them, but they can't preserve their gains.

Ohio Rs have to drop two seats. One of them simply has to be an R seat. I don't see how they easily collapse Toledo, metro Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown into just 4 seats. They'll try but it will be ugly. On the other hand, they can preserve R hegemony in Cincinnati and Columbus until the next D wave.

I don't see how Michigan gets rid of another D after their masterful job in 2002. Put Peters and Levin together? Does the population support that?

Illinois, on the other hand, will be a huge prize for Dems if Quinn can hold on. There isn't a Democratic representative between Cicero and St. Louis, and Melissa Bean just lost. Republicans drew the map last time.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #52 on: November 03, 2010, 08:25:48 AM »

Republican pickups (though not all affect redistricting, of course):

Alabama House and Senate
Colorado House (possibly, NCSL still has it out)
Indiana House
Iowa House
Maine House and Senate
Michigan House
Minnesota House and Senate (WTF?!)
Montana House
New Hampshire House and Senate
North Carolina House and Senate
Ohio House
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Assembly and Senate

Oregon's House looks like it'll be thin, it's currently 28-28 with 4 seats left. The Oregon Senate is possibly going to be a 15-15 tie.

Amusingly, it looks like the Republicans are down to only one seat in the Hawaii Senate.
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Holmes
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« Reply #53 on: November 03, 2010, 09:07:52 AM »


Constitutional marriage amendment.

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No (more) gay marriage.

Mr. Moderate must be thrilled.

At least with governor Abercrombie, Hawaii looks like it might get it in the near future, even though it has a ridiculously strong Christian lobby.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #54 on: November 03, 2010, 09:11:56 AM »

Dems still have the Iowa Senate, although just barely.
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Holmes
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« Reply #55 on: November 03, 2010, 09:16:26 AM »

That means nothing. With the three judges recalled and the House fallen, I'm sure there will be two Democrats that will waffle.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #56 on: November 03, 2010, 09:27:44 AM »

That means nothing. With the three judges recalled and the House fallen, I'm sure there will be two Democrats that will waffle.

The question is whether the Democratic leader of the senate lets it come up for a vote.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2010, 09:35:36 AM »

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No (more) gay marriage.

Mr. Moderate must be thrilled.

Oh yes, I'd been clinking my glass all night long.

Don't hate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2010, 09:43:46 AM »

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

They will be eliminating one seat, and I doubt if it will be Fitzpatrick.  Wink

Two seats are out there, currently, that could be GOP, PA-12 and PA-4.  The could probably get one more GOP seat in SWPA (with redistricting and a good year).

I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  Smiley
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Brittain33
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« Reply #59 on: November 03, 2010, 09:45:48 AM »

I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  Smiley

You can't eliminate two Philadelphia districts in two successive redistrictings. The population doesn't support it.

A district in the west has to go. Likely PA-12. But I am curious what they'll do in the northeast and southeast. Maybe they can clean up PA-6.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #60 on: November 03, 2010, 09:49:26 AM »

I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  Smiley

You can't eliminate two Philadelphia districts in two successive redistrictings. The population doesn't support it.

A district in the west has to go. Likely PA-12. But I am curious what they'll do in the northeast and southeast. Maybe they can clean up PA-6.

Ya, the game is going to be to try and get Altmire and Critz to have to face each other.  Or maybe try and eliminate both, but that's riskier.
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J. J.
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« Reply #61 on: November 03, 2010, 09:56:23 AM »

I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  Smiley

You can't eliminate two Philadelphia districts in two successive redistrictings. The population doesn't support it.

A district in the west has to go. Likely PA-12. But I am curious what they'll do in the northeast and southeast. Maybe they can clean up PA-6.

In the last one, it was Mascara's district, I think, so that is there they took out the district south of Pittsburgh.

They might be able to lump PA-12 into a strongly Republican district.  You can possibly loose one and flip one (in a good year).

PA House is now 110-112 R, 93-91 D.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #62 on: November 03, 2010, 10:07:06 AM »


wut. BRTD how did this happen?!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #63 on: November 03, 2010, 10:15:09 AM »


The Minnesota legislature swung very big on national partisan swings all through this decade. I'm not surprised.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #64 on: November 03, 2010, 10:34:31 AM »

Yeah there was a lot of close seats, especially in the suburbs. We probably won the popular vote but meh. Sad

At least we dodged a serious bullet since Dayton is still ahead. We're facing a mandatory recount, but it won't be another 2008-style debacle because Dayton's lead is much bigger. I'm a little worried about them passing an anti-gay marriage amendment though because Dayton can't veto that...
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Hashemite
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« Reply #65 on: November 03, 2010, 10:38:31 AM »

Is there any site with the new seat numbers for each legislature somewhere? MSM sites don't have that.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #66 on: November 03, 2010, 10:41:03 AM »

Is there any site with the new seat numbers for each legislature somewhere? MSM sites don't have that.

But of course: http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #67 on: November 03, 2010, 01:13:00 PM »

Does anyone knows what happened with New York Senate?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #68 on: November 03, 2010, 01:39:02 PM »

Does anyone knows what happened with New York Senate?

Still R 30, D 29, 3 undetermined

From the NY Times...

SD 7 - Martins (R) leads Johnson (D) 51-49 (800 votes) with 98% in.  I get the impression most people think Johnson has lost.
SD 37 - Cohen (R) leads Oppenheimer (D) 52-48 with 81% in
SD 60 - Thompson (D) leads Grisanti (R) 50-50 (250 votes) with 99% in.  In the NYT article, they said that both parties expect Grisanti to win, though with these numbers, one wonders
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #69 on: November 03, 2010, 01:50:08 PM »

Here it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

Wait, DeWeese managed to win? How the frack?

DeWeese 52.5, some republican 47.5

wtf?

Thought the indictment would finally finish him off, but no.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #70 on: November 03, 2010, 03:17:33 PM »

Dems dodged a bullet in Missouri -- Republicans came up just short of a 2/3rds majority in the legislature.

Some general state legislative observations:

Reports of the Democrats' demise in West Virginia seem to be premature; they actually gained seats in the State Senate, though they lost a few in the House. Other surprising gains: Democrats appear to have picked up two seats in the Maryland Senate, in Frederick and on the Eastern Shore.

Worst result for the Dems where it doesn't matter: Wyoming Senate, now 26-4 Republican.

Surprisingly, Alaska Senate remains split 10/10.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #71 on: November 03, 2010, 08:31:20 PM »

In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.

Same thing passed in Florida. 
Not hardly.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #72 on: November 03, 2010, 09:39:59 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2010, 10:05:26 PM by Nichlemn »

Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.
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muon2
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« Reply #73 on: November 03, 2010, 09:51:31 PM »

I've tried to start this thread in the redistricting forum but here's where everyone ie.


I appreciate your attempt. For those on this thread who aren't aware, the Political Geography/Demographics board has been set up to handle redistricting in the states. I have a sticky post to point to individual state threads, which currently include OH, PA and VA. I welcome additional threads for other states to add to the list.
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Frodo
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« Reply #74 on: November 03, 2010, 10:34:30 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2010, 10:46:44 PM by Frodo »

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 23, R: 16)
Louisiana House (D: 51, R: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 27, R: 25)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)
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