State Legislatures and Redistricting
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 02:07:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State Legislatures and Redistricting
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 12
Author Topic: State Legislatures and Redistricting  (Read 50049 times)
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: November 03, 2010, 10:40:53 PM »

Louisiana House looks like it's definitely going to flip. Virginia Senate is probably 50-50, depends on turnout. Mississippi Senate probably flips as well.

I think both New Jersey house and senate are probably safe.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,541


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: November 03, 2010, 10:50:18 PM »

Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: November 03, 2010, 11:03:45 PM »

Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.

I think the Presidency is by far the most important factor (given that Democrats controlled Congress from 2006 and it didn't appear to hurt their gains).
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,503
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: November 03, 2010, 11:09:44 PM »

Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.

I think the Presidency is by far the most important factor (given that Democrats controlled Congress from 2006 and it didn't appear to hurt their gains).

So you are predicting a continued Southern Republican sweep in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia?

That would make two of us, so far...  
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2010, 11:10:03 PM »

Here it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

Wait, DeWeese managed to win? How the frack?

DeWeese 52.5, some republican 47.5

wtf?

Thought the indictment would finally finish him off, but no.

I don't think DeWeese was indicted.  Perzel was indicted and lost.  You are confusing your corrupt Pennsylvania state reps.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2010, 11:10:51 PM »

Republican pickups (though not all affect redistricting, of course):

Alabama House and Senate
Colorado House (possibly, NCSL still has it out)
Indiana House
Iowa House
Maine House and Senate
Michigan House
Minnesota House and Senate (WTF?!)
Montana House
New Hampshire House and Senate
North Carolina House and Senate
Ohio House
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Assembly and Senate

Oregon's House looks like it'll be thin, it's currently 28-28 with 4 seats left. The Oregon Senate is possibly going to be a 15-15 tie.

Amusingly, it looks like the Republicans are down to only one seat in the Hawaii Senate.

"Dems are likely to hold the MI House"

lol

Really I am not surprised. With the GOP gaining double digit numbers in so many states, I had a feeling MI went to complete GOP control. I had a feeling that with the wave, Snyder's margin, and Dem problems both nationwide and in the state, the Dems were in trouble.
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: November 04, 2010, 01:01:50 AM »

Can anyone with knowledge of Arkansas politics predict would have happened if the GOP had nominated candidates everywhere? Apparently, they lost all seven contested state Senate races. I can't imagine the difference between the strongest contested Democratic seat and the weakest uncontested seat being all that large, so fail for the Arkansas GOP.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,583
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: November 04, 2010, 01:03:43 AM »

Considering that the Arkansas Dems currently hold a few seats that even Bill Clinton couldn't win, that is quite epic fail indeed.
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: November 04, 2010, 01:46:24 AM »

I presume they won't make the same mistake in 2012. But it might be too late to capitalise on all the good opportunities then.

What's with Arkansas and uncontested races anyway? In 2008, all four House races and the Senate races had no major party opposition. Is there something of a quid pro quo going on with party leaders? Bad recruiting?
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,932


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: November 04, 2010, 07:03:39 AM »

Too early to predict VA Senate without seeing the remap and someone looking at the seats Dems already hold. The current map is an R gerrymander vs. the D Senate was elected in more congenial times for Dems.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: November 04, 2010, 07:15:32 AM »

Can anyone with knowledge of Arkansas politics predict would have happened if the GOP had nominated candidates everywhere? Apparently, they lost all seven contested state Senate races. I can't imagine the difference between the strongest contested Democratic seat and the weakest uncontested seat being all that large, so fail for the Arkansas GOP.

They also netted 17 seats in the House, bringing them to 45-55 there, and picked up the three statewide posts they contested. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the Dems would've been royally screwed if the Republicans managed to put up candidates for more seats. Remember that a lot of Democrats in Arkansas are essentially Republicans anyway, so it probably doesn't change the ideological balance in the legislature, just the partisan balance.

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 23, R: 16)
Louisiana House (D: 51, R: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 27, R: 25)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)

Louisiana goes Republican -- the redistricting committee in the Senate is stacked with Republicans, from what I've heard. It should be just as bad as the rest of the South. So does Mississippi. Heck, I've been predicting both of those for a while now.

Virginia House isn't going to get any better for the Dems; they might win back a few seats they lost in 2009, but redistricting is going to cause them to lose seats elsewhere (SWVA is definitely losing seats, I'm hearing that Hampton Roads will lose one as well). The Senate is tough, because there's literally no seat left that they have a chance at picking up, even before redistricting; 2007 was their best shot at winning seats, and the three or four that they came close to winning but missed are just too Republican for them to have any chance at in 2011. Republicans, on the other hand, need 2 seats to win control, and there are plenty of tempting targets: Phil Puckett, John Miller, Edd Houck, Roscoe Reynolds, Mark Herring, and George Barker.

No idea on New Jersey.
Logged
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: November 04, 2010, 07:48:49 AM »

I'm guessing Arkansas Republicans extrapolated too much from Beebe's popularity.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: November 04, 2010, 07:56:03 AM »


This is probably the right answer here, because the 2011 elections will take place under a completely new set of lines.

My early prediction is this -- with Governor Christie's popularity what it is, we're probably looking at a relatively "status quo" election cycle, with GOP benefiting from a new-found ability to raise money and Democrats benefiting from being out of power (at least in Drumthwacket).

From there, it all depends on whether the independent commission draws a more favorable set of GOP lines. (The current set favors Democrats.) A few GOP-friendly line changes in Middlesex, Mercer, South Jersey could swing control of the chambers almost immediately.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: November 04, 2010, 08:35:12 AM »

I don't think DeWeese was indicted.  Perzel was indicted and lost.  You are confusing your corrupt Pennsylvania state reps.

You sure? I'll accept my memory on this isn't likely to be brilliant as I only pick things up to do with the laughable world of state politics in Pennsylvania occasionally, but that article described him as a 'criminal defendant'.

Hilarious, either way.
Logged
nhmagic
azmagic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: November 04, 2010, 01:05:22 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2010, 01:09:16 PM by nhmagic »

Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: November 04, 2010, 01:46:45 PM »

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

Remember - even an R+1 district leaned Democratic in 2008.  Why?  THe Cook PVI ratings are based on the 2004 and 2008 AVERAGE margin vs. the national margin, and Bush won in 2004. You'd need the 2012 national mood to meet the 2004 and 2008 average in order for an R+1 district to cost Obama an electoral vote.
Logged
nhmagic
azmagic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: November 04, 2010, 01:49:12 PM »

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

Remember - even an R+1 district leaned Democratic in 2008.  Why?  THe Cook PVI ratings are based on the 2004 and 2008 AVERAGE margin vs. the national margin, and Bush won in 2004. You'd need the 2012 national mood to meet the 2004 and 2008 average in order for an R+1 district to cost Obama an electoral vote.
Thats true...forgot about that.  Still, it would mean hed have to work for it in that district probably.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: November 04, 2010, 05:01:03 PM »

Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election. Will any/all legislative seats be up for election in 2012?
Logged
California8429
A-Bob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,785
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: November 04, 2010, 05:14:20 PM »

Hurray. Republicans won the Colorado House...by 1
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: November 04, 2010, 05:18:33 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2010, 05:27:05 PM by Sibboleth »

Um... why?

---

Edit: ah... now, this makes no sense. Because 'SkillandChance' has deleted his post. But he expressed delight at the narrow margin in the Colorado House and said that it would mean the Democrats going for CO-3 as at least one Republican would vote for their plan. He provided no evidence of this, so I asked the question above. Rather than actually answer the question, he deleted the post that prompted it.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: November 04, 2010, 05:25:18 PM »


They also won two of the three row offices or whatever they are called (AG Suthers won reelection and the SOS went Repub). Who is leading in the Treasurer race, has it been called yet? Green Papers says no.

GOP did well down ballot in CO comparative to the Senate and Governor elections.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,486
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: November 04, 2010, 05:31:55 PM »

Um... why?

---

Edit: ah... now, this makes no sense. Because 'SkillandChance' has deleted his post. But he expressed delight at the narrow margin in the Colorado House and said that it would mean the Democrats going for CO-3 as at least one Republican would vote for their plan. He provided no evidence of this, so I asked the question above. Rather than actually answer the question, he deleted the post that prompted it.

A. Hickenlooper's new "bipartisan" State Secretary of X (McDonnell almost did this in VA, Beshear did it a few times in KY)

B. Give someone or some group of people on the GOP side safe districts for life as part of the plan

Better yet, turn the whole process over to an independent commission and end all of the gamesmanship!  But they would never think of something like that.  It's too straightforward and rational.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: November 04, 2010, 05:54:40 PM »

Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election. Will any/all legislative seats be up for election in 2012?

Yes, the entire legislature is up every 2 years.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: November 04, 2010, 07:31:41 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2010, 07:43:58 PM by MagneticFree »

This is the current CD map for CO. When the redistricting takes place in spring 2011, they should make CD-7 and CD-2 more competetive and less D control IMO. Probably take off the western portion of CD-7 which is part of Arvada, Lakewood, and Westminster, and include that with CD-6, and take off eastern CD-2 (Thornton, Northglenn, Broomfield) and include CD-7 for western Adams county.


Logged
California8429
A-Bob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,785
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: November 04, 2010, 07:40:31 PM »

This is the current CD map for CO. When the redistricting takes place in spring 2011, they should make CD-7 and CD-2 more competetive and less D control IMO. Probably take off the western portion of CD-7 which is part of Arvada, Lakewood, and Westminster, and include that with CD-6, and take off eastern CD-2 (Thornton, Northglenn, Broomfield) and include CD-7 for western Adams county.


to me it would seem that would not change the 7th really and just make the 6th slightly more competitive
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 12  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 11 queries.