State Legislatures and Redistricting

Frodo
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State Legislatures and Redistricting

« on: August 07, 2010, 02:30:27 pm »

Does anyone see any state legislatures within the next couple of years changing hands by the time district boundaries are redrawn?

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Sam Spade
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2010, 03:00:43 pm »

Quote from: Frodo on August 07, 2010, 02:30:27 pm

Does anyone see any state legislatures within the next couple of years changing hands by the time district boundaries are redrawn?

I'm sure a number of state legislatures will change hands this year. And the districts are redrawn after this year.

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JohnnyLongtorso
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2010, 03:20:29 pm »

I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):

Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

-----

R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

-----

N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010

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Bo
Rochambeau
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2010, 05:55:08 pm »

Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

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Mr.Phips
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2010, 07:07:53 pm »

Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on August 07, 2010, 03:20:29 pm

I think the New York Senate actually leans Democratic. To win control, Republicans would have to win seats that Obama won with 60%+ of the vote unless they sweep the three competitive Dem held seats(Foley, Aubertine, and Stakowski) and Frank Padavan survives against a highly popular local Democratic Councilman in a 66% Obama district in Queens.

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change08
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2010, 07:58:09 pm »

Quote from: Mr.Phips on August 07, 2010, 07:07:53 pm

Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on August 07, 2010, 03:20:29 pm

Let's not forget Cuomo's coattails. He could get up to and exceeding 65% of the vote...

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Jayhawker
tmthforu94
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2010, 02:22:32 pm »

I honestly think Republicans are safe at winning back Indiana. I know of at least three districts that will definitely be flipping over, and that's only in my area. I'm sure there are others statewide.

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Quote from: John_Engle on November 02, 2012, 04:25:37 pm

Tmthforu94

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JoeyJoeJoe
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2010, 09:10:29 am »

Which ones? I assume the Vincennes seat is one of them.

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Jayhawker
tmthforu94
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2010, 09:31:38 am »

Quote from: JoeyJoeJoe on August 09, 2010, 09:10:29 am

Which ones? I assume the Vincennes seat is one of them.

I had Battles in mind for a loss. I'm not sure how well you know your Representatives, but Vern Tincher, who's my representative, is retiring. Bob Heaton (barely lost to Tincher in 2008) is running again and should comfortably win. Nancy Michael is also in some serious trouble, as is Goodin and Blanton. And as far out as it sounds, I think Grubb could face a serious challenge as well from Sharon Negele.

Any other seats you had in mind? I mainly know about Southwest Indiana.

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Quote from: John_Engle on November 02, 2012, 04:25:37 pm

Tmthforu94

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nclib
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2010, 09:08:00 pm »

Quote from: Rochambeau on August 07, 2010, 05:55:08 pm

Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

Quote from: nclib on January 21, 2010, 09:38:00 pm

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

How will this all play out?

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muon2
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2010, 10:50:20 pm »

Quote from: nclib on August 09, 2010, 09:08:00 pm

Quote from: Rochambeau on August 07, 2010, 05:55:08 pm

Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

Quote from: nclib on January 21, 2010, 09:38:00 pm

How will this all play out?

The map predates the primaries, and doesn't reflect governorships that are polling differently than they did in Jan. It would be handy to update it to reflect those changes as well.

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Ernest
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2010, 03:26:13 pm »

Unless the Census data is not as expected for South Carolina, redistricting won't matter federally here. We'll have two minority majority districts that will go Democratic, and with what remains, I can't see there being anyway to not have the other five districts be at least lean Republican. At best, a pro-Democratic gerrymander would be able to draw a district that Spratt would have a chance of being reelected in, but which would be expected to go into the hands of GOP if any other Democrat were running. Since the Senate is not up for grabs, even if a political tsunami hit this State out of nowhere, we're not going to see a Democratic gerrymander.

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Rochambeau
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2010, 04:40:45 pm »

Quote from: nclib on August 09, 2010, 09:08:00 pm

Quote from: Rochambeau on August 07, 2010, 05:55:08 pm

Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

Quote from: nclib on January 21, 2010, 09:38:00 pm

How will this all play out?

Thanks nclib. It appears that the only states Democrats can really "milk" several seats out of are Illinois and California. I wonder if the Democrats here in CA are actually going to have the balls to be nasty when it comes to redistricting this time around. As for the GOP, I think their gains out of this are going to be minimized because many GOP states where the population is growing quickly have increasing numbers of minorities, and thus either the VRA will require them to make new Democratic (minority) seats, or the GOP legislators will do it themselves out of necessity to protect their current incumbents.

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Dgov
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2010, 05:36:24 pm »

Quote from: Rochambeau on August 11, 2010, 04:40:45 pm

Two things: 1) the reason the Democrats don't gerrymander the hell out of California is because the GOP holds 1/3rd of the seats in both houses, and basically says that if the Dems try to do a partisan gerrymander, they'll just shut down the state government. It's how they've managed to avoid it for the last 30 or so years, despite monolithic Democratic control.

2) Minority growth in Republican states, especially Texas, is going to be a huge boom for the Republicans. You can draw a 27-9 Republican plan in Texas (Currently 20-12), and still fall completely under VRA rules, creating 2 Hispanic Majority and 2 Black-Majority Districts (assuming they get 4 new seats) without ugly Gerrymandering.

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JoeyJoeJoe
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2010, 09:54:26 am »

Back in the 80s, Phil Burton put a massive Dem gerrymander on the state. He eliminated at least five GOP seats (Goldwater, Dornan, Grisham, Rousselot, McCloskey) even as the state was gaining two seats. Probably one of the most effective partisan gerrymanders even.

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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2010, 10:56:34 am »

Quote from: Dgov on August 12, 2010, 05:36:24 pm

Quote from: Rochambeau on August 11, 2010, 04:40:45 pm

What monolithic Democratic control are you talking about? In the last 30 years the Republicans have won 5 out of 7 gubernatorial elections.

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JoeyJoeJoe
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2010, 12:19:57 pm »

Dems controlled the state government in 1981, which allowed them to create their own map for the 80s.

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Dgov
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2010, 03:20:38 pm »

Quote from: JoeyJoeJoe on August 13, 2010, 12:19:57 pm

Dems controlled the state government in 1981, which allowed them to create their own map for the 80s.

Texas Democrats have always been the kings of Gerrymandering. In the 1960s, they were able to draw a 24-0 Map (admitteldy by drawing non-equal population districts), which to this day was the best gerrymander in the country. They were also extremely effective in the 90s, where they added 3 Safely Democratic seats for a 22-8 Delegation despite the Republicans actually winning the congressional vote.

It's one of the reasons i don't feel any sympathy for the Dems Delay outed in 2003--they were basically only there in the first place because their seats were drawn to be safe.

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Dgov
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2010, 03:24:38 pm »

Quote from: px75 on August 13, 2010, 10:56:34 am

Quote from: Dgov on August 12, 2010, 05:36:24 pm

Quote from: Rochambeau on August 11, 2010, 04:40:45 pm

What monolithic Democratic control are you talking about? In the last 30 years the Republicans have won 5 out of 7 gubernatorial elections.

I was referring more to the state legislature, where the Democrats have held on constantly since the 70s aside from two years after 1994. The Democrats had complete control of the state government in 2000 IIRC, and instead opted to go for the bipartisan route, mostly because the Republicans basically told them that they'd shut down the government if the Dems tried a partisan Gerrymander.

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brittain33
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2010, 11:24:12 am »

Quote from: Dgov on August 13, 2010, 03:24:38 pm

My recollection is that the Republicans threatened to put an anti-gerrymandering referendum on the ballot if the Dems went that route, and also that the Dems did so well in 2000 that they thought it better to consolidate their gains than reach for the stars and risk losses.

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Torie
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2010, 11:28:25 am »

It was more to do with the notion that both parties in CA did not really want many swing seats, and trying to go after more GOP seats, would put some of the Dem seats in play. That is my recollection at least.

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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2010, 12:00:40 pm »

Quote from: brittain33 on August 14, 2010, 11:24:12 am

Quote from: Dgov on August 13, 2010, 03:24:38 pm

Makes sense. Let's remember that back then California wasn't so overwhelmingly Democratic as now.

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Frodo
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2010, 03:17:13 pm »

Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on August 07, 2010, 03:20:29 pm

I saw your post on the Swing State Project blog -when's Part 2 coming out, BTW?

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JohnnyLongtorso
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2010, 03:25:17 pm »

A long time ago.

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Frodo
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Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting

« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2010, 08:51:07 pm »

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures?

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