State Legislatures and Redistricting

[Frodo]

Does anyone see any state legislatures within the next couple of years changing hands by the time district boundaries are redrawn? 

[Frodo]

I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

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R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

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N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010

I saw your post on the Swing State Project blog -when's Part 2 coming out, BTW?

[Frodo]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

[Frodo]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

[Frodo]

The GOP has just taken the Alabama legislature as well as the North Carolina Senate.  The North Carolina House may follow suit as well. 

[Frodo]

Republicans have just taken over both houses of the North Carolina legislature.  Only Arkansas and West Virginia withstand the GOP surge in the South.

[Frodo]

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 23, R: 16)
Louisiana House (D: 51, R: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 27, R: 25)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)

[Frodo]

Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.

I think the Presidency is by far the most important factor (given that Democrats controlled Congress from 2006 and it didn't appear to hurt their gains).

So you are predicting a continued Southern Republican sweep in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia?

That would make two of us, so far...  

[Frodo]

Update: With LA state rep. Walker Hines switching parties, the Louisiana legislature is now split, with Republicans now having a one-vote lead in the Louisiana House.

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 22, R: 16, I: 1)
Louisiana House (R: 51, D: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 26, R: 24)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)

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Also, would anyone happen to know how many white Democrats will still represent conservative to moderate conservative districts in legislatures throughout the South after January?  

[Frodo]

That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district. He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here.  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

WTF, MY REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHED PARTIES?

But it's a pretty Democratic area, yeah. The northern bits and some of the west of the district are majority black. Cedric Richmond won most precincts in the district; Cao basically only won the parts of the district in the 14th ward (in your map, the precincts numbered 14-XX). And even then, not every one of 'em. I haven't checked but I think Obama may have won every precinct in the district.

But Louisiana has a long tradition of party switching! Wouldn't be surprised if this guy does run for SoS.

Since you live in the state, do you see the legislature there (as well as in Mississippi) being taken over by Republicans as they have already done in other Deep South states?

[Frodo]

Two more Democratic state legislators (this time, senators) in Louisiana have just switched to the GOP.  Before long, the entire Louisiana legislature will be under Republican control with just a few more defections.

[Frodo]

I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).

... And, the Republicans won every statewide race in Arkansas except the governorship.

And don't forget to add the offices of Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor to that list of positions still held by Democrats. 

[Frodo]

Louisiana House now officially has a Republican majority for the first time since Reconstruction -still awaiting word on the Senate...

[Frodo]

Seems to me like the blue dogs could soon become extinct.

In the South, perhaps.  Though we'll have to see if you can hold on to what you have just won, as well as take over the remaining southern Blue Dog strongholds in the Mississippi, Arkansas, and West Virginia legislatures, including the Louisiana and Virginia senate chambers, and the Kentucky house. 

[Frodo]

With Republicans likely to be formally in full control in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia by this time next year (as well as Kentucky five years from now), does anyone see Arkansas also going Republican within this coming decade?  It is the only remaining southern state (with the possible exception of West Virginia -but no one is sure whether it is 'southern' or not) with Democrats still in full control of the legislature.