State Legislatures and Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

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R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

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N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010

I think the New York Senate actually leans Democratic.  To win control, Republicans would have to win seats that Obama won with 60%+ of the vote unless they sweep the three competitive Dem held seats(Foley, Aubertine, and Stakowski) and Frank Padavan survives against a highly popular local Democratic Councilman in a 66% Obama district in Queens. 

[Mr.Phips]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures?  

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

I generally agree.  I actually expect Democrats to narrowly hold the Iowa House(where there are some open Republican seats in very Democratic areas).  I think Republicans get the North Carolina Senate, but fall just short in the House and for Democrats to barely hold the New York State Senate(losing one net seat for a 31-31 tie that is broken by Cuomo's LG).  Democrats might the Alabama House, but Im unsure.  Another possibility is the Wisconsin Senate. 

[Mr.Phips]

With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 

Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

Absolutely, I'm just not sure whether they can win both houses. They recruited candidates for every Dem seat in the Senate but left several House seats uncontested.

I think they will probably win the Senate. 

[Mr.Phips]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

[Mr.Phips]

How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

I think the object of redistricting will be making the freshman incumbents safer.

Its going to be very difficult to do so in both states. 

[Mr.Phips]

In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.

Same thing passed in Florida. 

[Mr.Phips]

Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.

[Mr.Phips]

How many absentees are out in this district?

[Mr.Phips]

So suppose the GOP wins the state Senate, how do they gerrymander a way for them to hold it in 2012 presuming that SD-60 is a near certain loss? They'd need to convert another Democratic seat.

They cant gerrymander it as Cuomo has veto. 

[Mr.Phips]

The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?

They didn't. Democrats held the trifecta in Indiana.

Actually, Republicans had the state Senate and the legislature couldnt agree to a map, so the Lt. Governor(a Democrat) got to pick the map. 

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...

I'd say that, after  this November's elections, redistricting will put Democrats behind the eight-ball in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana (probably), North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma,and Wyoming, in addition to Texas and Kansas.  Of course, regarding Congress,  Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, and South Carolina can't get much worse for the Democrats.  Also, for the one-seat states, or already all-Republican states, redistricting won't change anything.  But the state legislative district boundaries will be less-favorable for Democrats like their worst dreams.  I'd add Florida except for the new non-partisan redistricting law. 

In most of these legislatures, Democrats cant possibly fall any lower.  In Alabama, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, Democrats are basically down to black/Hispanic majority and urban liberal districts.  In Idaho, Utah, and the Dakotas, Democrats are down to nothing but a few liberal inner city districts.  In Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Democrats were basically swept out of everywhere but inner cities and some traditionally Democratic maufacturing areas. 

Democrats are basically at the point in state legislatures(and the US House), where they have almost nothing left to lose.  Even the Southern and midwestern rural areas that held somewhat in 1994 left in 2010.  The former will likely come back in 2012 or 2014, but the latter will be very difficult.