State Legislatures and Redistricting

[muon2]

Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York  Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

How will this all play out?

The map predates the primaries, and doesn't reflect governorships that are polling differently than they did in Jan. It would be handy to update it to reflect those changes as well.

[muon2]

I've tried to start this thread in the redistricting forum but here's where everyone ie.

I appreciate your attempt. For those on this thread who aren't aware, the Political Geography/Demographics board has been set up to handle redistricting in the states. I have a sticky post to point to individual state threads, which currently include OH, PA and VA. I welcome additional threads for other states to add to the list.

[muon2]

Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?

[muon2]

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?

That is a great idea, but I doubt they'll do it.  By the way, non-partisan is a joke.  It is heavily Repuplican on partisan issues.
[/quote]

I'm quite aware of the real partisan balance, which is why I can imagine the legislature doing that. They can actually do it in the name of reducing county splits as IA does.