State Legislatures and Redistricting (user search)
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Author Topic: State Legislatures and Redistricting  (Read 50266 times)
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
« on: August 07, 2010, 07:58:09 PM »

I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

-----

R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

-----

N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010


I think the New York Senate actually leans Democratic.  To win control, Republicans would have to win seats that Obama won with 60%+ of the vote unless they sweep the three competitive Dem held seats(Foley, Aubertine, and Stakowski) and Frank Padavan survives against a highly popular local Democratic Councilman in a 66% Obama district in Queens. 

Let's not forget Cuomo's coattails. He could get up to and exceeding 65% of the vote...
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