State Legislatures and Redistricting

[rbt48]

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?
[/quote]

That is a great idea, but I doubt they'll do it.  By the way, non-partisan is a joke.  It is heavily Repuplican on partisan issues.

[rbt48]

Try looking here:
http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx

[rbt48]

The NCLS website http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx now shows the Mississippi Senate at 25-D, 24-R with 3 vacancies.  I'm not sure if the vacancies are possible GOP gains, but at least one must be a Republican district as the lineup was reported as 27-D, 25-R not too many days ago.  So, perhaps a Republican take-over looms here.

[rbt48]

Here is a spreadsheet of the 2010 post-election state legislature lineup by party:

http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf

Comments and corrections gladly welcomed.

[rbt48]

77 Republicans, 73 Democrats and 1 Independent were elected to the Maine House of Representatives this year, but one Democrat (soon to be second-term Rep. Michael J. Willette of Presque Isle in House District 5 who is already counted and listed as a Republican here (his son Alexander (R-Mapleton), who was elected to the House in a neighboring district, apparently convinced him to switch parties)) announced he was switching parties a little over a week after his reelection (he got to vote for the Republican nominee for Speaker even though he couldn't have had his 15 day elligibilty period to vote in a Republican primary or municipal caucus, etc. finished by then), so, counting that switch, your table is correct for Maine (there were one Senate and three House recounts (all Republican requests that could only have increased their majority) but the leading Democrats hung on in all of those).

Why's the 0 for Independents and Others in the South Dakota Senate in boldface though?  At first I thought it was to represent a Republican Lt. Governor (does South Dakota even have one?), but then I saw that the Republicans have (or will have at least) an overwhelming (30 to 5!) majority in that chamber.

Thanks for the great update on Maine and for the South Dakota catch on the bold face.  I'll correct it promptly.  Yes, SD does have a Republican Lt Gov, though the bold face was just an error on my part.

[rbt48]

Looks like the Republicans have sealed a 32 to 30 edge in the New York State Senate.  I think the last losing Democrat is still talking of a court challenge, but his opponent was declared the victor.
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf

Also, NCSL:  http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx?stateid=vt#data

[rbt48]

I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

[rbt48]

I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).

... And, the Republicans won every statewide race in Arkansas except the governorship.

[rbt48]

From a practical standpoint, I would think the 2/3rds majority means that the Democrats can't run to Ardmore OK to stop redistrciting from occuring.  The 100 Republicans would constitute a quorum.

[rbt48]

Are the current Texas state legislative districts the ones drawn following the 2000 census?  I did not think that Delay's redistricting plan affected them--I thought his plan only redrew the Congressional districts.

[rbt48]

Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...

I'd say that, after  this November's elections, redistricting will put Democrats behind the eight-ball in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana (probably), North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma,and Wyoming, in addition to Texas and Kansas.  Of course, regarding Congress,  Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, and South Carolina can't get much worse for the Democrats.  Also, for the one-seat states, or already all-Republican states, redistricting won't change anything.  But the state legislative district boundaries will be less-favorable for Democrats like their worst dreams.  I'd add Florida except for the new non-partisan redistricting law. 

For Democrats, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and Washington should offer some hope.  Hawaii too.  But most of these states can't get worse for Republicans.  I guess Illinois is the brightest spot for Democrats in terms of making things tougher for Republicans.

[rbt48]

I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

I found a breakout of the officially non-partisan Nebraska Unicameral in the OWH:
http://www.omaha.com/article/20101122/NEWS01/711229930

It is amusing to me how, in spite of it being a non-partisan body, I can't recall a governor here filling a vacancy with someone from the other party, no matter how strongly the vacant district may be.  Ben Nelson appointed a Democrat to a very strongly Republican district in Sarpy County, for example.  Though, I do recall that Bob Kerrey appointed a Republican Attorney General when Paul Douglas was forced out of office.

[rbt48]

I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

As far as I know, there's only one Assembly seat up in the air in New York - AD 100 in Dutchess/Orange/Ulster.  The Republican won reelection in the close Westchester AD.  The Assembly is at 99-50.  I think Republicans need 51 to stave off a party-line veto override (which is kind of irrelevant with a Democratic governor, though).

Thanks!  I'll update the NY State Assembly to 99 - 50 - 1.

[rbt48]

Do did Mass end up at 128D, 32R?