Ahmed Shah Massoud survives assassination attempt: whither Afghanistan?

[The Mikado]

Bear with me here.

Ahmed Shah Massoud, dynamic Northern Alliance leader and hero of the mujahideen resistance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, was murdered by the Taliban on September 9th, 2001, eliminating the natural leader of post-invasion Afghanistan and forcing the Bush Administration to look to the far less effective (to say the least) puppet Karzai as the leader of post-Taliban Afghanistan.  Massoud had real legitimacy and popular support, and would've been a far stronger leader than Karzai.  How would the last nine years there have varied with him?

(If you want to take it in the direction that he was too disobedient and the Bush Administration disowns him, feel free, though I doubt that would be what would happen)

[Хahar 🤔]

He wouldn't have been disowned by the United States, but, since he had independent power, he wouldn't tow the American line. Afghanistan under Massoud would be more stable, but the opium trade would be as strong as ever. Today, it would be a commonly-held opinion that the United States ought to take a harder line on Afghanistan, but it probably wouldn't be able to do so.

[Bo]

I thought Massoud was assasinated by al-Qaeda, not the Taliban. Anyway, I pretty much agree with what Xahar said, with Afghanistan being more stable and Massoud asserting his independence from the U.S. I'm not sure if Massoud would have agreed to become President--he didn't in 1993, instead picking his friend Rabbani for President. He might have picked someone else to be President (probably someone of Pashtun ethnicity) while himself assuming a more behind-the-scenes role. I don't know which Northern Alliance members were close to Massoud. Maybe someone like Abdullah Abdullah. I wonder if al-Qaeda would have carried through with 9/11 if the assassination on Massoud failed. I guess they probably would have, even though they would have realized that the Northern Alliance would be much more unified and effecient with Massoud still around. Maybe Massoud is able to capture bin Laden and the insurgency in Afghanistan would probably be less powerful right now because Massoud was an expert on guerilla warfare and he would probably be able to keep the Taliban at bay (with the help of U.S. aid and troops) while the U.S. would be busy fighting in Iraq.

[patrick1]

I personally disagree with your premise.   Massoud was a natural and legitimate leader to the Northern Alliance only and even then only among a portion of that.  A Massoud presidency would not have been acceptable to the traditonaly powerful Pashtun plurality.  He was roundly despised by Pashtun and I think there is a full out civil war and insurgency with him installed rather than the lower intensity conflict we have witnessed these past 9 years. I think we would have seen a coalition with a Pashtun again in #1 slot and Massoud in a #2 slot.

[Bo]

I personally disagree with your premise.   Massoud was a natural and legitimate leader to the Northern Alliance only and even then only among a portion of that.  A Massoud presidency would not have been acceptable to the traditonaly powerful Pashtun plurality.  He was roundly despised by Pashtun and I think there is a full out civil war and insurgency with him installed rather than the lower intensity conflict we have witnessed these past 9 years. I think we would have seen a coalition with a Pashtun again in #1 slot and Massoud in a #2 slot.

Which Pashtun do you think Massoud would have supported for President?

[patrick1]

I personally disagree with your premise.   Massoud was a natural and legitimate leader to the Northern Alliance only and even then only among a portion of that.  A Massoud presidency would not have been acceptable to the traditonaly powerful Pashtun plurality.  He was roundly despised by Pashtun and I think there is a full out civil war and insurgency with him installed rather than the lower intensity conflict we have witnessed these past 9 years. I think we would have seen a coalition with a Pashtun again in #1 slot and Massoud in a #2 slot.

Which Pashtun do you think Massoud would have supported for President?

The same corrupt bunch that were actually installed- the Qadirs, Karzais.  

[minionofmidas]

Bear with me here.

Ahmed Shah Massoud, dynamic Northern Alliance leader and hero of the mujahideen resistance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, was murdered by the Taliban on September 9th, 2001, eliminating the natural leader of post-invasion Afghanistan and forcing the Bush Administration to look to the far less effective (to say the least) puppet Karzai as the leader of post-Taliban Afghanistan.  Massoud had real legitimacy and popular support, and would've been a far stronger leader than Karzai.  How would the last nine years there have varied with him?

(If you want to take it in the direction that he was too disobedient and the Bush Administration disowns him, feel free, though I doubt that would be what would happen)

Massoud would have been wholly inacceptable to Bush as a puppet leader, and would have been largely inacceptable to the Pashtuns they were trying to win over. I suppose you could fashion a timeline where his role is not all that unlike Jalal Talabani's, but it's a quite unlikely best case scenario.

Quite frankly, the most likely scenario is one where Massoud is still doing what he's done for thirty years. Fighting for his home region's independence and opium income against whoever controls Kabul. Except now the west thinks him a devil incarnate and close ally of Osama bin Laden - which he is not.

Don't get me wrong and all - he was a great man by all accounts.