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Author Topic: Senate Races 2006.  (Read 29298 times)
Ben.
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« on: November 04, 2004, 01:26:05 pm »
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With Bush back with a solid win and the GOP in firm control of both the senate and the house, what can be expected from the 2006 contests of course a lot depends on the economy and the state of the war on terror but this is the info that I have to hand at the moment on what races look competitive and who might be retiring…

Competitive Races.

Virginia: George Allen (R), if Mark Warner runs this could be very competitive race indeed.

Missouri: Jim Talent (R)

Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum (R) he’s stronger than many democrats like to believe though. 

Montana: Conrad Burns (R)

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D)

Florida : Bill Nelson (D)

Vermont: Jim Jeffords (I)

Maine: Olympia Snow (R), the only reason she’s here is if she faces a conservative primary challenge or spoiler candidate a-la Spectre.

Competitive Races, assuming the incumbent retires. 

Tennessee: Bill Frist (R)

Indiana: Richard Lugar (R)

West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D)

Mississippi: Trent Lott (R), this is only competitive if Mike Moore runs.

Texas: Kay Bailey Hutchison, it would very probably stay GOP, but if Hutchinson looks to make a bid for the governorship it could be competitive.

…that’s all I can see at the moment but its something to keep focused on for the next two years Smiley
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2004, 03:23:52 pm »
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It will be tough going for Santroum with Rendell up for re-election as well.....
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Wakie
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2004, 04:12:01 pm »
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I think Rick "you have no right to privacy" Santorum will be the main target in the 2006 election.

Look for the DNC to roll out Joe Hoeffel, Chris Heinz, or Bob Casey Jr to run against him.
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2004, 04:25:00 pm »
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New York: polls show Giuliani could defeat Hillary Clinton in 2006
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2004, 04:27:15 pm »
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I'd do anything to keep her from being the pres nominee in 2008. She would destroy all hopes we'd ever have of taking the presidency.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2004, 04:37:41 pm »
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Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

It the other parties can get good challengers, these races might be interesting:

Dems
Debbie Stabenow, MI (she only won 49% last time)
Hillary Clinton, NY (only if Rudy runs)
Maria Cantwell, WA (Nethercutt will probably try again)
Jon Corzine, NJ (there's a good chance he'll run for Gov., would try to appoint his own replacement but NJ situation sort of unstable right now)
Paul Sarbanes, MD (if he retires, Michael Steele will definitely run)
Kent Conrad, ND (if the GOP can find another John Thune)
Ben Nelson, NE (he is very popular, but don't be surprised if Mike Johanns, a very pop. Gov runs against him)
You already mentioned Bill Nelson, Mark Dayton and Robert Byrd (if he retires, I agree on that too)

Reps
George Allen, VA (only if Mark Warner runs)
Jim Talent, MO (Dems will have to find a good candidate)
Rick Santorum, PA (it is unknown how much the Specter support cost him in his western PA base, still pretty tough actually, Dems have good candidates, Rendell machine)
Conrad Burns, MT (only if Schweitzer runs again)
Olympia Snowe, ME (only chance is in-party challenge)
Trent Lott, MS (if he retires)
Richard Lugar, IN (same here, Dems would have to find another Evan Bayh figure)
Bill Frist, TN (if he retires, Harold Ford would be formidable)

Objections:
Democrats are officially on life support in Texas, even if Hutchinson were to run for Gov., it would be pretty impossible for Dems to win, DeLay is wiping them out there as we speak.

No one will challenge Jim Jeffords, unless he leaves, then I give the Dems the edge on that one.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2004, 05:28:24 pm »
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Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2004, 06:55:35 pm »
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How about Mass?  Is Kennedy going to run again?  I remember him saying in 1994 that he wasn't going to run again.  Guess his word is good as gold :-).  This could be a competitive race if he retires, especially if Weld makes another run for the Senate.
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2004, 07:03:40 pm »
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How about Mass?  Is Kennedy going to run again?  I remember him saying in 1994 that he wasn't going to run again.  Guess his word is good as gold :-).  This could be a competitive race if he retires, especially if Weld makes another run for the Senate.

Romney for Senate!
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FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2004, 11:07:19 pm »
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How about Mass?  Is Kennedy going to run again?  I remember him saying in 1994 that he wasn't going to run again.  Guess his word is good as gold :-).  This could be a competitive race if he retires, especially if Weld makes another run for the Senate.

Romney for Senate!

I would think Romney would stay in the statehouse.  2006 is his reelection year.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2004, 01:27:51 am »
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The Senate is looking very bleak for the Democrats for years to come.   The Dems can win the presidency without any Southern states, but they can't take back the Senate that way.  They can't gain many seats in 2006 because they already gained 4 of those same seats in 2000.   Maybe they can take Santorum's seat, plus TN with Ford and VA with Warner, but that's about the best case.

The math is just plain awful for the Dems.  Bush won 30 states this year, so the GOP can get a veto-proof majority without even winning any of the blue states.

Wouldn't it be weird to have two Senator Warners in VA?  I guess they would be Warner Sr. and Warner Jr.
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Ben.
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2004, 03:51:22 am »
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The Senate is looking very bleak for the Democrats for years to come.   The Dems can win the presidency without any Southern states, but they can't take back the Senate that way.  They can't gain many seats in 2006 because they already gained 4 of those same seats in 2000.   Maybe they can take Santorum's seat, plus TN with Ford and VA with Warner, but that's about the best case.



Just do what all the moderate Dems have been saying for years and quit it with the divisive social issues! There are plenty of good Dems in the South, but most are pro-life and small-c conservative... Ford and Warner can both win, because they are conservative to populist dems.

What’s important to remember is that economic populism not social liberalism is at the heart of what the Democratic Party is all about, I don't mean that the democrats should abandon some socially liberals stands nor that they should suddenly endorse some of the intolerant and hateful ideas of the far right of the republican party but many within the party could learn from the moderate wing of the party, social liberalism was never a part of the agenda’s of FDR, Truman or Kennedy in fact it was only in the 1970’s in the context of the “counter culture” that it became fused by many liberal dems with the democrats traditional economic populism… it is time to re-evaluate this fusion IMHO       
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2004, 03:51:51 am »
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I agree, though I might say that I don't think Warner can defeat Allen head-on (Allen is very powerful and very well-liked).  He'd probably end up with about the same percentage he did against Warner Sr. in 1996.  It might be smarter to just wait and see if Warner Sr. would retire in 2008.

Santorum is sometimes vulnerable, especially since he stupidly back Specter against Toomey, but I really don't know how that hurt him among his base, if it did at all.  If it didn't, he's a tough nut to crack in PA because of his strength in Western PA.  He always appears more in danger than he is (very few Senators like that).

Ford can win in Tennessee if Bill Frist retires.  He's conservative socially and that would play well there.  I don't know who would run against him on the Rep side.  He won't challenge if its against Frist, obviously.
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2004, 03:58:31 am »
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Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.

I don't agree with that.  Remember that pro-life Dem that ran against Sanotrum in 2000?  Ron Klink.  HE LOST!  Only Joe Hoeffel or Chris Heinz can win this seat.  Considering Specter had the AFL-CIO support, it was difficult for Hoeffel to muster anything this time.  They will definitely not back Santorum.  Also, the socially liberal SE suburbs will not vote for him like they did in 2000.
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2004, 07:42:48 am »
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Mississippi: Trent Lott (R), this is only competitive if Mike Moore runs.
There's two Mike Moores I reckon, or else somebody on this forum has been smoking a lot of crack. Smiley
Although I guess this is a safe Dem pickup if Moore runs as  a Republican. Smiley
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Ben.
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2004, 08:25:16 am »
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Mississippi: Trent Lott (R), this is only competitive if Mike Moore runs.
There's two Mike Moores I reckon, or else somebody on this forum has been smoking a lot of crack. Smiley
Although I guess this is a safe Dem pickup if Moore runs as  a Republican. Smiley

Mike Moore, is a former Attorney General of Missippi from 1987 to 1999 and just about the most popular politican in the state he seems to have waiting for a chance to run for the senate and while any statewide race for a dem in Mississippi would be tough Moore would be highly competative and in with a very good shot.

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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2004, 09:59:55 am »
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Any expected "default" post-9/11 Democratic losses? This is after all the last Senate race with people who were elected before it.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2004, 02:05:54 pm »
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Bob Casey Jr. would probably stand the best chance.  Cuttin into Santorum's western PA appeal is about the only way to beat him.

Casey is the only one with a chance to beat Santorum but Casey as the Dem nominee for Senate won't happen.

1) He wants to be Governor.
2) He's pro life. He might be popular but the pro abortion rights groups will throw a lot of money at any pro choice candidate.

Hoeffel can't beat Santorum (let's watch and see if he even runs). Hafer can't beat Santorum. And Rendell can't beat Santorum. Santorum will keep this seat.

I don't agree with that.  Remember that pro-life Dem that ran against Sanotrum in 2000?  Ron Klink.  HE LOST!  Only Joe Hoeffel or Chris Heinz can win this seat. 

I think most would agree with me when I say that comparing a candidacy by Casey to the candidacy of Klink is pretty insulting.

Then you say only Hoeffel or Heinz can win this seat. Well what about Rendell? (I don't think Rendell can either but I just want your opinion)

Neither Hoeffel nor Heinz can win Santorum's seat. Heinz is nothing. People will see right through him. Hoeffel would provide a bit of a challenge but in the end it would be a 53-47 Santorum win. Hoeffel can have his union support but he'd do poorly out west with the socially conservative Dems.
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Wakie
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2004, 03:59:03 pm »
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Heinz is young.  I expect him to run for the House first.  Probably will unseat Melissa Hart (people LOVED his father and they would elect him on his name alone).

Klink was a joke of a candidate.  He ran a poor campaign and had way too much dirty laundry.

Bob Casey Jr would be the best challenger for Santorum but the real question is "does he want the job".  He was just elected to a 4-year term as state treasurer so I agree it is highly unlikely he would jump directly at a Senatorial position.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2004, 04:08:37 pm »
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Heinz is young.  I expect him to run for the House first.  Probably will unseat Melissa Hart (people LOVED his father and they would elect him on his name alone).

Klink was a joke of a candidate.  He ran a poor campaign and had way too much dirty laundry.

Bob Casey Jr would be the best challenger for Santorum but the real question is "does he want the job".  He was just elected to a 4-year term as state treasurer so I agree it is highly unlikely he would jump directly at a Senatorial position.

Heinz wouldn't win a House race against Hart. However, if Hart runs for Governor in 2006, that leaves an open seat. Will he run? Possibly. Could he win? Yeah he could win but I don't think he'd win. People would see right through him.

As for Casey, he doesn't want the job. He wants to be Governor.
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2004, 05:40:24 pm »
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If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2004, 05:42:18 pm »
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I'd like to see how the NJ Senate race plays out. Corzine might run for Gov.
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2004, 05:46:58 pm »
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I would love to see Clinton Tossed on her butt, and Kay Hutchinson in the Gov's Mansion.
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2004, 06:03:54 pm »
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I think the Democrats should put more focus on the House but they need to do a better job of refining the blue states into pure Democratic senators. Make a big deal in Maine and RI and go for the jugular of Olympia Snowe and Lincoln Chafee. It will be a project for the stronger than ever New England Democrats to go for. If the Democrats stick it to them they can pull of John Thune's. Just look what Tom Carper did in Delaware in 2000. Try the same strategy in Pennsylvania and there may be a pickup there. The Democrats need to do a better job of identiying the Jim Bunning types earlier so they can wear and tear against them (which was what the NH Democrats succeeded in with the Lynch campaign). The Democrats should field strong candidates in Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia to organize and register new voters before sacrifices will be made in 2008.
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2004, 06:07:22 pm »
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I'd like to see how the NJ Senate race plays out. Corzine might run for Gov.

I think he's pretty set against running for Governor in 2005 but I guess it could still happen. If so, the 2006 Senate race could mean the return of Republican Doug Forrester as a Senate candidate (he's running for Governor this year but if he wins the primary and has to face Corzine, it's almost guarenteed he'll lose). The Dems would probably put up either Bob Menendez or popular south Jersey Congressman Rob Andrews.

If Corzine stays in the Senate and runs for re-election in two years, he'll win easily.
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