Senate Races 2006.

[Downwinder]

I'd put even odds on Orrin Hatch retiring after his term ends in 2006.  He's been serving since 1976, and will be 72.  IF he retires, I doubt the race would be very competitive--I'd look for Mike Leavitt (former  three-term Governor, EPA Administrator), to win over Jan Graham (former two-term Attorney General), although the race would be closer than many outside Utah would imagine, since both are quite popular.

But, that's only IF Hatch retires.  Like I said, even odds.

[danwxman]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

Instead of keeping to a mature debate, the Dems have to stoop to personal attacks. How low. Can't say I didn't expect it, though.

Get your drivers license yet?

[Keystone Phil]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

Instead of keeping to a mature debate, the Dems have to stoop to personal attacks. How low. Can't say I didn't expect it, though.

Get your drivers license yet?

Once you can tell me the relevance of that question to this debate, I'll answer. Otherwise, I suggest you start looking up better ways to debate candidates instead of the "Paterno is fat!" lines.

[Keystone Phil]

As for the poll, I'd say moderate.

Well I disagree. I think if you ask some of the PA Dems on the forum they'd even agree that PA is a conservative state.

[12th Doctor]

I think Rick "you have no right to privacy" Santorum will be the main target in the 2006 election.

Look for the DNC to roll out Joe Hoeffel, Chris Heinz, or Bob Casey Jr to run against him.

Casey wants to be governor, not senator.

[danwxman]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

I don't mean to bust on KeystonePhil, but I wish all Republicans had his mentality and cockiness.  He must think the GOP is going to invade certain areas.  He also thinks PA is a solidly conservative state.  I know PA is far from a liberal state, but it is nowhere near as right a KP would think. 

IrishDem, once again, I love how you tell me how I think. I have stated that PA is a conservative state. We're no Utah, we're no Wyoming. However, you're the one saying we're a "centrist" state. Sorry to bust on you, IrishDem, but I don't think you know what you're talking about. I'm sixteen but I know my stuff.

51-49 for Kerry, pretty split, that sounds centrist to me. And the fact that Kerry won by itself means the state isn't conservative.

Arguing with you really is pointless. I have said before that this state is very partisan when it comes to Presidential races. However, this is a conservative state and that can be seen in a number of other races here in the Keystone state.

It totally just depends on where you are in the state. The West is turning more conservative, the East more liberal and the center is staying about the same, with a few areas turning more liberal and others turning more conservative.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Dan I agree.  Montgomery County is getting drastically more liberal and that's a huge county.  In 1988 Ronald Reagan praised them for having one of the best Republican organizations in the country.  That was more of a eulogy.  Also, judging from the results of this past election even Northeast Philly which is relatively conservative compared to the rest of the city turned out for the Dems and gave a 20 yr State House incumbent a near heart attack.  You also have to consider Lois Murphy very narrowly lost to incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach in PA-6.  Rest assure PA-6 and PA-8 will be challenged for years to come as will PA-7 when Curt Weldon retires. 

[danwxman]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

[So the Heroes Fall]

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

[danwxman]

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

PA overall is by a very slight margin a socially conservative state. It IS changing. Just look at one of the few growth areas of the state, the Philly suburbs which are becoming more liberal. Western PA is turning more Republican, but that part of the state is declining in population.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

PA overall is by a very slight margin a socially conservative state. It IS changing. Just look at one of the few growth areas of the state, the Philly suburbs which are becoming more liberal. Western PA is turning more Republican, but that part of the state is declining in population.

On the compass I'd say:

Economic: -2.50
Social: +1.50

[Wakie]

If PA-4 is an open seat in 2006, Heinz wins it. Probably as convincingly as Hart did in 2000.

How? Named ID alone isn't how you win an election. Yeah it helps but that doesn't seal the deal.

Perfect example: PA 17. PATERNO vs. Holden

Actually that was more like PATERNO vs HOLDEN. Voting out one of the best constituency reps in Congress is plain daft.

You didn't answer my question, did you?

Name ID favored Paterno. People across PA know that name especially those in PA 17. I didn't ask you your opinion on whether or not it was a good idea to vote out Holden.

Heh, believe it or not, with the crappy football season and overwhelming support of Holden...I think the name ID would go to Holden. It's hard to figure out but you don't live in this area.

I agree.  Joe Paterno is a fossil and has sh**tty football teams.  Scott Paterno looks like a "Tommy Boy". 

Scott Paterno is a fat moron.

Instead of keeping to a mature debate, the Dems have to stoop to personal attacks. How low. Can't say I didn't expect it, though.

Actually, I have known Scott Paterno since high school (I competed in forensics against him).  He is overweight and of below average intelligence (honestly, too many frat parties ... he's been attending them since he was 14).

[Keystone Phil]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

Actually you didn't address the point I made. This just in: Just because there are more Dems than Republicans doesn't mean more people in PA are liberal. Guess what? Kentucky has a higher Dem registration than Republican. Think they are liberal?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, you didn't explain. Why would a person be a Democrat if they're a 100% conservative?

Also, why did Bush win Westmoreland county and Kerry win Montgomery county then?

You might be able to say Pennsylvania is a SOCIALLY conservative state, but it sure as hell isn't an economically one, or conservative overall.

You have to ask some of the conservative Dems why they stay Dem, BRTD. I obviously don't have the answer to that question.

My position on this will stay the same: More people in the state of Pennsylvania identify themselves as conservative as opposed to being moderate or liberal. You disagree? Fine. We have a difference of opinion and I doubt it will change.

[Keystone Phil]

gave a 20 yr State House incumbent a near heart attack. 

Kenney had a near heart attack? IrishDem, I don't think you understand. Every election the Dems target Kenney and make their candidate seem like the best thing the PA Democratic party has ever produced. In the end, Kenney wins and usually wins big. He never took Boyle seriously and never really worried about losing his seat. Boyle might be a great candidate when the seat opens but in all honestly, he's not a candidate that scared Kenney at all.

[Akno21]

Dems
Paul Sarbanes, MD (if he retires, Michael Steele will definitely run)

LOL. The GOP took back the governorship in 2002 for 2 reasons, A) Ehrlich ran a good campaign and Townsend didn't, and B) Glendening had some problems. Steele was not one of the reasons. We have two good candidates ready for Governor, or possibly Senate, in 2006. Martin O'Malley, Mayor of Baltimore (who got 88% for re-election last week) and Prince George's County Executive, Doug Duncan. If they both run for governor, keep in mind we have 6 representives who could move up. That is all assuming Sarbanes doesn't run again; there are some pretty old people in the capitol.

[Jake]

Luzerne County almost went for Bush this year.  Hoeffel lost big and Bush lost by 4,000 votes.

A perfect example of the average PA politician is Bob Casey Jr.  Social consevative, economic liberal.  

[danwxman]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

Actually you didn't address the point I made. This just in: Just because there are more Dems than Republicans doesn't mean more people in PA are liberal. Guess what? Kentucky has a higher Dem registration than Republican. Think they are liberal?

That's NOT my point. You said PA is Democratic by a small margin. You didn't check up on your facts.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would it be partisan Democrat if it was conservative? Are you saying there are lots of conservatives who voted for the guy who was labeled the #1 liberal in the Senate? (not true, but that's what was said about him)

Using your logic, I could argue Montana is a liberal state.

I'll make this very simple for you, BRTD. Dems outnumber Republicans in this state by a small margin. Many Dems in this state are conservative however when it comes to Presidential elections those conservative Dems are usually pretty partisan. On the state and local levels, it is a different story. That's the way it is in this state. Now you can choose to see it a different way but I believe that most would agree with my logic.

Now here is my question to you: If there was a poll taken in the state of Pennsylvania and those being polled had to label themselves conservative, liberal or moderate, how do you think most of them would answer?

LOL. This is why I don't take you seriously...

Voter registration in PA:

Democrat:   3,966,293
Republican: 3,386,434

I'll do the math for you since obviously your school isn't doing a good job. Here's the difference: 579,859

That means there's over a half million more Democrats then Republicans in PA. Hardly a small margin.
 

Actually you didn't address the point I made. This just in: Just because there are more Dems than Republicans doesn't mean more people in PA are liberal. Guess what? Kentucky has a higher Dem registration than Republican. Think they are liberal?

That's NOT my point. You said PA is Democratic by a small margin. You didn't check up on your facts.

Ok well maybe it's not a small margin. But it's kind of embarrassing for you guys that with an advantage you can't win back the State House or State Senate or the State AG post or either of the two U.S. Senate seats or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

[Sibboleth]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

[Keystone Phil]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

[Sibboleth]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

[Keystone Phil]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

My point was with the advantage the Dems have they were never able to overcome the GOP advantage in the delegation no matter how small it was.

[Sibboleth]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

My point was with the advantage the Dems have they were never able to overcome the GOP advantage in the delegation no matter how small it was.

After the '98 election the Dems had (IIRC) a one seat advantage in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

or a majority in the PA Congressional delegation...

The PA Republicans *did* gerrymander the hell of the state y'know...

...and before that they still had a majority ya know...

What was it... one seat? Two? No more than that. PA's Congressional Delagation was very close for most of the '90's.

My point was with the advantage the Dems have they were never able to overcome the GOP advantage in the delegation no matter how small it was.

After the '98 election the Dems had (IIRC) a one seat advantage in PA.

You're right. I stand corrected. It didn't last very long though.