Alternative Future 2020 - Gameplay Thread: October 2019

[sentinel]

*All endorsements must be approved by me first (PM)
*Request polls in the sign up thread.
*I'll release the order of primaries on this thread and the other one

August 2019 is the start time. Every 2-3 days will be a month.

Sign up/question thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=119332.0

I think that covers everything,

[sentinel]

Mid August 2019

In McSchmadden v. North Carolina, the Supreme Court rules in favor of gun control advocates, in a 5-4 decision.  The NRA is vehemently opposed to this ruling and many southerners will protest the ruling.

(Respond to this if you want)

[sentinel]

Polling end of August 2019


Democratic Primary:
Carte Goodwin: 23%
Undecided: 77%

Republican Primary:
Bob McDonnell: 20%
David Patreus: 15%

[sentinel]

Democratic Primary State Polling Mid-September 2019:

Red: Senator Charlie Crist
Blue: Senator Carte Goodwin

Iowa:

Goodwin: 23%
Crist: 15%

New Hampshire:

Crist: 17%
Goodwin: 10%

Florida:
Crist: 68%
Goodwin: 12%

West Virginia:
Goodwin: 75%
Crist: 8%

California:
Goodwin: 20%
Crist: 17%

Kentucky:
Goodwin: 30%
Crist: 10%

Virginia:
Goodwin: 25%
Crist: 13%

[sentinel]

Republican Primary State Polling Mid September 2019:

Red: General David Patreus
Blue: Governor Bob McDonnell

Florida:

McDonnell: 23%
Patreus: 20%

South Carolina:

Patreus: 30%
McDonnell: 24%

Virginia:

McDonnell: 57%
Patreus: 30%

Iowa:

Patreus: 29%
McDonnell: 22%

New York:

Patreus: 27%
McDonnell: 20%

California:

Patreus: 25%
McDonnell: 23%

New Hampshire:

Scott Brown: 40%
Patreus: 27%
McDonnell: 18%

Massachusetts:

Scott Brown: 50%
Patreus: 30%
McDonnell: 20%

Illinois:

McDonnell: 25%
Patreus: 18%

[sentinel]

End of September 2019 National Polling:


Democratic Primary:

Goodwin: 25%
Crist: 22%
Undecided: 53%

Republican Primary:

Patreus: 22%
McDonnell: 22%

(Inc: VP Scott Brown)

Brown: 43%
Patreus: 16%
McDonnell: 10%

What is the most important issue to you (all voters)?

National Security: 28%
Economy: 13%
Education: 8%
Cybersecurity: 5%
Deficit: 12%
Social Security: 15%
Personal Security (Gun Rights): 5%
Other: 14%


Would you support or oppose the use of American forces in Pakistan?

Support: 28%
Oppose: 53%
Unsure: 24%

Would you support or oppose the use of American forces in Pakistan to secure nuclear weapons that may fall into the hands of terrorists?

Support: 48%
Oppose: 26%
Unsure: 26%

Do you approve of the job Bobby Jindal is doing as President?

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 48%
Unsure/No opinion: 15%


What party do you identify yourself as?

Independent: 35%
Democrat: 31%
Republican: 24%
Tea: 10%

[sentinel]

Tim Pawlenty endorses Governor McDonnell in Iowa.

"Under a McDonnell administration, you'll be in fear when you go to sleep at night.."

You wanna revise that? I can see that hurting you in Iowa

[sentinel]

Curveball: There are no more caucuses due to reforms by both the RNC and DNC

Republicans have a winner take all system. Democrats will be awarded delegates by percentage of the vote if they get above the 15% threshold. To make my life easier we'll assume superdelegates have been done away with.

Delegates are locked to their candidate until after the first round of voting. If a candidate, whom has won delegates, drops out of the race and endorses another I'll guarantee that at least 60% of their delegates goes to the person that they endorsed.



Primary Schedule:

January 4: Iowa Primary (40R/57D)
January 8: New Hampshire Primary (12R/30D)
January 15: South Carolina (24R/54D
January 22: Nevada Primary (34R/33D)

After those we'll be following this schedule:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

(All primaries will be held on the Democratic days, but we'll use the Respective Republican delegate numbers and Democratic numbers. Michigan and Florida will be on February 1st with Maine, they'll have their full delegates.)

Republican delegates: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/republicanprimaries/

[sentinel]

End of October Polling:

Democratic Nomination:

Red: Crist
Blue: Goodwin

Iowa:

Goodwin: 30%
Crist: 18%

New Hampshire:

Crist: 23%
Goodwin: 20%

South Carolina:

Goodwin: 28%
Crist: 20%


California:
Crist: 25%
Goodwin: 20%

[sentinel]

Republican Primary Polling:

Red: Petraeus
Blue: McDonnell
Green: Pence



South Carolina:

McDonnell: 27%
Pence: 20%
Patraeus: 16%

Iowa:

Pence: 36%
McDonnell: 26%
Patraeus: 23%


New Hampshire:

Patreus: 32%
McDonnell: 26%
Pence: 25%

[sentinel]

Carte Goodwin calls his campaign manager...

"What's up with this polling?"
"Well, Carte, it's pretty good for the most part. We're getting a lot of blue collar voters, and we have a chance to be at a great position by Super Tuesday. My only concern is why we're not winning the Northeast, given that you're much more liberal than Crist. We'll have to spend a couple days up there, mentioning often that Crist is a former Republican."
"Sounds great. Thanks a bunch."
"No problem, good luck sir."

I hope thats not a hit on me. My thinking has been that Crist is now more liberal since caucusing with the Democrats, but if you portray him as more conservative it'll do the trick regardless