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Author Topic: Education Level and the 2000/2004 vote  (Read 6813 times)
nclib
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« on: March 16, 2004, 12:19:03 am »
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CTguy, these posts below were very interesting and I thought I'd start a thread on the impact of education level on voting.

There is a difference between Liberal and Democrat.  The 70% of hispanics and 85% of blacks that are voting democratic are not doing so primarily because of social issues or because they are liberal.  They are doing so because democratic policies benefit them economically.  

If you control for this, most people who vote based on ideology that are educated are liberal while people with less education tend to be conservative.  It doesn't take a rocket-scientist to see that many of the precincts Gore won in 2000 were college towns or areas around cities where people hold advanced degrees.    Whereas most of the vast rural expanses that Bush won are culturally social areas where most people didn't go to college.

By the way just on this topic.  I was wondering if anyone read a study I read way back when that said that one of the biggest predictors of how a state voted in 2000 was how many public and private universities are located in that state as a ratio of the population.  States with more universities as a proportion of the population (MA, NY, CT) tended to vote for Gore and those with the least tended to vote for Bush.  

Firstly, I agree about black/Hispanic voting patterns. Many aren't necessarily social liberals yet vote Democrat based on self-interest (such as affirmative action, minimum wage, welfare, immigration, etc.). Controlling for race and economic status, as you say, does indicate a positive relationship between education and social liberalism.

Secondly, I haven't read the study you mentioned, but I don't doubt it. The most liberal communities do tend to be heavily influenced by universities. Nader beat Bush in Cambridge and presumably Berkeley and Gore did very well in Ivy League cities and cities with large universities. The only conservative college towns that I can think of are College Station, TX (Texas A & M) and Provo, UT (BYU).
« Last Edit: March 16, 2004, 12:26:49 am by nclib »Logged



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nclib
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2004, 12:21:58 am »
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This map is interesting. It is a map indicating the percentage of people in a given state who hold advanced degrees. Red is above the national average and blue is below the national average.

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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

nclib
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2004, 12:25:10 am »
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This model looks very much like the 2000 map. In fact, it is only "wrong" for 11 of the 50 states (and 3 of them were won by less than 1%).

I'd love to hear others' opinions on why proportion of advanced degrees is such a good predictor of political behavior.
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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

opebo
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2004, 12:28:16 am »
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This model looks very much like the 2000 map. In fact, it is only "wrong" for 11 of the 50 states (and 3 of them were won by less than 1%).

I'd love to hear others' opinions on why proportion of advanced degrees is such a good predictor of political behavior.

Educated fool?  Native intelligence?

Face it, education is a luxury item for the comfortably well off, not of any practical use - I ought to know.

So perhaps people with enough dough to waste on the boondoggle of college are also foolish about their political purchases?
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angus
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2004, 12:40:03 am »
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 This is widely discussed.  Democrats have more undervotes than republicans, because Republicans have a higher overall educational level and thus income.  but when 'advanced degrees' are considered separately, more holders of master's doctorates and professional degrees are democrats.  That map correlates somewhat with democrat and republican plurality states in 2000.  Not surprising.  It is no doubt due to the fact that most phd physicists, chemists, biologists get 100% of their income, either directly or indirectly from the united states government from taxpayers.  It is not surprising that most lawyers are Democrats and most physicians are Republicans, by similar a public vs. private funding analysis, or, in the case of ambulance chasers such as Senator Edwards, the willingness of the Democrats to pass laws favorable to a high standard of living for attorneys, many of whom are politicians.
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classical liberal
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2004, 01:00:58 am »
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Government should have no say in scientific research unless they want to commission a case study.
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angus
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2004, 01:10:14 am »
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That's the way it generally works.  Big case studies.  It's all good, solid conservatives have supported science for many years.  liberals too.  This is part of the burden of empire, which I believe cannot coexist with the republic.  That's the real tragedy.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2004, 01:17:50 am »
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Eduucation is like a gun.  It can be very dangerous with the wrong people behind it.  That's the problem with the northeastern liberals.
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zachman
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2004, 04:52:59 pm »
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Hanover NH is home to Dartmouth and the most heavily voting section of NH. An oddity about NH is that Cheshire County, a less densely and more rustic county in SW NH, is as Democratic as Hanover's county. The northernmost, and loosely populated vacation areas of NH are the most Republican, and the urban, college, and Northern Massachusetts are the most Democratic parts of NH.

NH has the highest percentage of high tech workers, and a sky-high rate of the college educated. Although not every area with these demographics is democratic, these groups will soon overwhelm NH. I'm not sure whether banking, doctors, or the like count. Maybe we just have the most because we have so few industrial jobs.
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« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2004, 04:58:00 pm »
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Eduucation is like a gun.  It can be very dangerous with the wrong people behind it.  That's the problem with the northeastern liberals.
One could make the same statement of conservatives everywhere.
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« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2004, 05:07:34 pm »
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What I have seen with education level is the high school dropouts go dem, and then the GOP vote goes up modestly in every stage until it shoots back to the Democrats with the post-college degree.
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zachman
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« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2004, 05:13:24 pm »
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I'd like to see a poll of Ivy League graduates. Thats where a 2:1 factor comes in. I think the reason so many of the 4 year only college graduates are Republican, is because they got a free ride to college, and come from the very wealthy. It  is difficult to come education levels, because people come from such different backgrounds and their college education could be a success or a failure.
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« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2004, 10:57:33 pm »
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I'd like to see a poll of Ivy League graduates. Thats where a 2:1 factor comes in. I think the reason so many of the 4 year only college graduates are Republican, is because they got a free ride to college, and come from the very wealthy. It  is difficult to come education levels, because people come from such different backgrounds and their college education could be a success or a failure.

Dear GOD.  You reasoning has no basis in reality.  Just listen to yourself.
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Nation
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« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2004, 11:12:46 pm »
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I'd like to see a poll of Ivy League graduates. Thats where a 2:1 factor comes in. I think the reason so many of the 4 year only college graduates are Republican, is because they got a free ride to college, and come from the very wealthy. It  is difficult to come education levels, because people come from such different backgrounds and their college education could be a success or a failure.

Man, take off the liberal glasses. Republicans come from all walks of life, just as Democrats do. Geez.
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nclib
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« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2004, 12:21:09 am »
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This is widely discussed.  Democrats have more undervotes than republicans, because Republicans have a higher overall educational level and thus income.  but when 'advanced degrees' are considered separately, more holders of master's doctorates and professional degrees are democrats.  That map correlates somewhat with democrat and republican plurality states in 2000.  Not surprising.  It is no doubt due to the fact that most phd physicists, chemists, biologists get 100% of their income, either directly or indirectly from the united states government from taxpayers.  It is not surprising that most lawyers are Democrats and most physicians are Republicans, by similar a public vs. private funding analysis, or, in the case of ambulance chasers such as Senator Edwards, the willingness of the Democrats to pass laws favorable to a high standard of living for attorneys, many of whom are politicians.

And the divide is getting bigger...Of the 11 states that voted for Clinton in '96 and Bush in '00, Ten of them were "blue states" on the map that I created.
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[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

angus
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« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2004, 12:25:38 am »
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One out of ten, in two samples only four years apart, does not suggest that this is true.  It's just a snapshot.  We're an impatient people.  I like it, because it means we have the best data and the best stuff.  But the fact that some of us don't know what to do with that data or that stuff is what's pissing off the rest of the world.  Come on board, nclib.  It's a big tent.

Peace.
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MarkDel
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2004, 01:01:49 am »
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I've been gone on business for the past several days, but I can see that nothing has changed since I left...

Zachman,

You've made some really lovely posts in this thread. You have clearly shown yourself to be an arrogant little pr*ck. And the worst part about your less than humble attitude is that you are NOWHERE NEAR as smart as you think you are.

As for your point about the voting habits of Ivy League graduates...well...if you're going to play the "education card" then I'll be glad to return your arrogance with equal aplomb.

1. As an Ivy League graduate (Princeton class of '88) I will be voting for George W. Bush in November. And I generally, but not always, vote Republican.

2. Unless your Daddy owns half of New Hampshire, the closest you'll get to an Ivy League education will be on the day you fill out your college applications.

3. How does it feel to have that elitism thrown back in your face kid?
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muon2
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2004, 08:51:47 am »

This is widely discussed.  Democrats have more undervotes than republicans, because Republicans have a higher overall educational level and thus income.  but when 'advanced degrees' are considered separately, more holders of master's doctorates and professional degrees are democrats.  That map correlates somewhat with democrat and republican plurality states in 2000.  Not surprising.  It is no doubt due to the fact that most phd physicists, chemists, biologists get 100% of their income, either directly or indirectly from the united states government from taxpayers.  It is not surprising that most lawyers are Democrats and most physicians are Republicans, by similar a public vs. private funding analysis, or, in the case of ambulance chasers such as Senator Edwards, the willingness of the Democrats to pass laws favorable to a high standard of living for attorneys, many of whom are politicians.
There is another factor in considering the voting behavior of those with advanced degrees. I'll address academic PhDs, based on 25 years of interaction.

As a group, I find academics far more likely to vote against their economic self-interest. In many cases, personal philosophy trumps personal interest.  For instance, the fact that the local Congressman is a great supporter of scientific research doesn't count if he's wrong on social issues. It ironic when the research funding is of immediate benefit, but the social issues have little or no impact at the personal level.
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zachman
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« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2004, 02:01:05 pm »
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Research issues are perhaps the most popular issue to my dad. He writes letters to our congressman and senators to complain about any science research vote. Social issues are still far more important, even to this group though.
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I'm a proud NH Primary voter for 2008.

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"As some warn victory, some downfall
Private reasons great or small
Can be seen in the eyes of those that call
To make all that should be killed to crawl
While others say don't hate nothing at all
Except hatred."
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