What would an Obama defeat look like in 2012?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

LOL.

The reference is obviously to Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Hint #1:

President Barack Obama has been able to get a large legislative agenda enacted into law; Jimmy Carter was completely ineffective at that.

Hint #2:

Statewide polarization of the vote is much more severe than it was in 1980. It would take nearly a 5% shift of the vote to turn Iowa (the deciding state of 2008) to the Republican nominee. Such a shift would give a result more like Kerry 2004 than like Carter 1980.  If you ignore the vote for John Anderson you find roughly a 5% shift of the votes that counted from Carter to Reagan.

 

You didn't realize I was joking?

That's Pbrower you're talking to.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

498-40

[Yelnoc]

498-40

Someone's a little...optimistic.

[exopolitician]

If the GOP really wants to win in 2012, I say they better nominate a governor or a former one. Like Huckabee, Jindal, Jeb Bush, Romney etc.

None of the above. Neither of them would be able too, especially since two of them lost the primary in '08.

[Vepres]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

I think Pennsylvania would flip, especially considering if it follows through this year by electing Republicans to both the governorship, the Senate, as well as at least a couple of seats to the House of Representatives.

[tpfkaw]

Something along these lines:

The GOP wins Michigan, but not Nevada or Pennsylvania?

[pbrower2a]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

Michigan is solid D -- about like Maryland. The state has drifted from a swing state leaning D to one of the strongest D states -- stronger D than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The large African-American population makes Michigan a tough state for Republicans. Sure, the Republican nominee is likely to win the gubernatorial election in 2010 due to dissent about the state government on economic performance. But so far the Republican nominee has scrupulously avoided the culture wars that Republicans lose in Michigan.

I am beginning to think that Virginia is becoming more D than Iowa for much the same reason that Michigan is drifting more D than either Minnesota or Wisconsin.   

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

Michigan is solid D -- about like Maryland. The state has drifted from a swing state leaning D to one of the strongest D states -- stronger D than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The large African-American population makes Michigan a tough state for Republicans. Sure, the Republican nominee is likely to win the gubernatorial election in 2010 due to dissent about the state government on economic performance. But so far the Republican nominee has scrupulously avoided the culture wars that Republicans lose in Michigan.

I am beginning to think that Virginia is becoming more D than Iowa for much the same reason that Michigan is drifting more D than either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  

I would say that Virginia's march to the left has been halted. As the state has elected Republicans overwhelmingly in the past year or so. In addition, Obama and the Democratic policies pursued thus far on the national level attract high disapproval in VA. This is even true in NOVA, which is one of the key reasons why Gerry Connolly is in trouble for reelection.

[© tweed]

a cold night as the wind pricks those who roam; a quiet Deli adorned with men in raggedy snow caps smoking Newports just outside the door.  the streets uncharacteristically barren as the middle stages of the End Times commence, the messengers oblivious to the greater nature of the drama they're facilitating; the variance of the species' eventual data point narrowed.

[opebo]

[Ronnie]

The electoral college update from the census will be included in the 2012 elections right?

[auburntiger]

Probably something like this:

...although you could switch Michigan and Minnesota. If things don't improve economically, I could see the GOP winning Michigan in a good year/bad year for Obama. McCain was competitive there before he pulled out. Minnesota is tough...there seems to be a high floor, but a ceiling of around 48%. This WAS the only state to vote Dem in '84.

I think Maine could be the 2008 Indiana...it doesn't seem overly Democratic in nature (lots of Indy's) which if they swing against Obama nationally, he may lose Maine.

The only other one I could see flipping is Oregon, but that would take a major third party showing to pull some liberal votes away from Obama, probably to a lesser extent Washington.

New Jersey would be nice to win too, maybe Christie can shake things up there

[Fuzzybigfoot]

498-40

LULZ, just LULZ

[pbrower2a]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

Michigan is solid D -- about like Maryland. The state has drifted from a swing state leaning D to one of the strongest D states -- stronger D than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The large African-American population makes Michigan a tough state for Republicans. Sure, the Republican nominee is likely to win the gubernatorial election in 2010 due to dissent about the state government on economic performance. But so far the Republican nominee has scrupulously avoided the culture wars that Republicans lose in Michigan.

I am beginning to think that Virginia is becoming more D than Iowa for much the same reason that Michigan is drifting more D than either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  

I would say that Virginia's march to the left has been halted. As the state has elected Republicans overwhelmingly in the past year or so. In addition, Obama and the Democratic policies pursued thus far on the national level attract high disapproval in VA. This is even true in NOVA, which is one of the key reasons why Gerry Connolly is in trouble for reelection.

That was an off-year election in which the electoral size was down -- way down.  Two recent polls showed Obama support above the national average, which is consistent with Virginia being R+2 instead of R+5. "The same reason" that distinguishes Michigan from either Minnesota or Wisconsin (large African-American population) also distinguishes Virginia from Iowa.

If you want to give credit to anyone for making Virginia the strongest state for Obama south of the Potomac and the Ohio... then it could be former Governor Douglas Wilder, who gave Virginia clear evidence that a black politician could offer unobjectionable leadership. 

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

Michigan is solid D -- about like Maryland. The state has drifted from a swing state leaning D to one of the strongest D states -- stronger D than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The large African-American population makes Michigan a tough state for Republicans. Sure, the Republican nominee is likely to win the gubernatorial election in 2010 due to dissent about the state government on economic performance. But so far the Republican nominee has scrupulously avoided the culture wars that Republicans lose in Michigan.

I am beginning to think that Virginia is becoming more D than Iowa for much the same reason that Michigan is drifting more D than either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  

I would say that Virginia's march to the left has been halted. As the state has elected Republicans overwhelmingly in the past year or so. In addition, Obama and the Democratic policies pursued thus far on the national level attract high disapproval in VA. This is even true in NOVA, which is one of the key reasons why Gerry Connolly is in trouble for reelection.

That was an off-year election in which the electoral size was down -- way down.  Two recent polls showed Obama support above the national average, which is consistent with Virginia being R+2 instead of R+5. "The same reason" that distinguishes Michigan from either Minnesota or Wisconsin (large African-American population) also distinguishes Virginia from Iowa.

If you want to give credit to anyone for making Virginia the strongest state for Obama south of the Potomac and the Ohio... then it could be former Governor Douglas Wilder, who gave Virginia clear evidence that a black politician could offer unobjectionable leadership. 

Poll wise I've seen constant disapproval of Obama and Democratic policies overall since the beginning of the year.

[Yelnoc]

The electoral college update from the census will be included in the 2012 elections right?

Correct.

[phk]

like Kerry 2004 + CO + IA

[TeePee4Prez]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

I think Pennsylvania would flip, especially considering if it follows through this year by electing Republicans to both the governorship, the Senate, as well as at least a couple of seats to the House of Representatives.

If the GOP wins PA, it will be on the count of a swing year plus better candidates not so much the state itself.

Gov:  As of now Lean R
Sen:  Tossup/Tilt Dem.  R's usually overpoll

PA-3: Lean D
PA-4: Tossup
PA-6: Lean R for now because of climate.  More competitive in future.
PA-7: Tossup/Tilt GOP.  I'll concede because of the wave, but prime to switch back to D in 2012 due to liberal trends.  Independent Tea Party candidate from the right could allow Lentz to pull < 50% and win.  
PA-8:  Likely D.  Mike Fitzpatrick has to not only contend with Indy RW Tom Lingenfelter, but a CP candidate as well. Pat Murphy is strong on his own.
PA-10: Conservative district peeking at Watch List.  If Marino could get his act together on fundraising different story. Safe D for now.
PA-11: Tossup/Tilt GOP.  Think you got us here.  Kanjo is a joke and I think Biden bailed his ass out in 2008.  Barletta is strong on hot button issue here, but has his own dirty laundry.
PA-12: Likely D
PA-13:  Peeking at Watch List. Safe D, but could enter in strong wave I'll admit.
PA-15: Likely R
PA-16: Peeking at Watch List.  Definitely not 2010, but watch in future if district stays intact. Trending strongly Dem, but Safe R for now.
PA-17:  See PA-13, but a more conservative district.
PA-18: See PA-16, but unlike the 16th, the 18th is actually trending rightward.

Too early to tell and what district(s) will be eliminated or even added.  When you really think about  in worst case scenarios for PA CD's:

Worst for Dems:  GOP takes all, but 1, 2 and 14.  13 would require a strong wave or moderately bad scandal.

GOP:  PA goes all D but 5, 9, and 19.  And even 5 COULD vote for a conservative D AND a wave.  16 same as 13 above but reverse, but I see it trending D.

[Kevin]

Something along these lines:

Though I think that, if Obama will lose, it will probably be to a Republican who at least doesn't drive Hispanics away, and maybe even appeals to them. This would flip NM and NV, and bring CA to a margin less than 10, and may bring Texas to 60% for the Republican.

I think Pennsylvania would flip, especially considering if it follows through this year by electing Republicans to both the governorship, the Senate, as well as at least a couple of seats to the House of Representatives.

If the GOP wins PA, it will be on the count of a swing year plus better candidates not so much the state itself.

Gov:  As of now Lean R
Sen:  Tossup/Tilt Dem.  R's usually overpoll

PA-3: Lean D
PA-4: Tossup
PA-6: Lean R for now because of climate.  More competitive in future.
PA-7: Tossup/Tilt GOP.  I'll concede because of the wave, but prime to switch back to D in 2012 due to liberal trends.  Independent Tea Party candidate from the right could allow Lentz to pull < 50% and win.  
PA-8:  Likely D.  Mike Fitzpatrick has to not only contend with Indy RW Tom Lingenfelter, but a CP candidate as well. Pat Murphy is strong on his own.
PA-10: Conservative district peeking at Watch List.  If Marino could get his act together on fundraising different story. Safe D for now.
PA-11: Tossup/Tilt GOP.  Think you got us here.  Kanjo is a joke and I think Biden bailed his ass out in 2008.  Barletta is strong on hot button issue here, but has his own dirty laundry.
PA-12: Likely D
PA-13:  Peeking at Watch List. Safe D, but could enter in strong wave I'll admit.
PA-15: Likely R
PA-16: Peeking at Watch List.  Definitely not 2010, but watch in future if district stays intact. Trending strongly Dem, but Safe R for now.
PA-17:  See PA-13, but a more conservative district.
PA-18: See PA-16, but unlike the 16th, the 18th is actually trending rightward.

Too early to tell and what district(s) will be eliminated or even added.  When you really think about  in worst case scenarios for PA CD's:

Worst for Dems:  GOP takes all, but 1, 2 and 14.  13 would require a strong wave or moderately bad scandal.

GOP:  PA goes all D but 5, 9, and 19.  And even 5 COULD vote for a conservative D AND a wave.  16 same as 13 above but reverse, but I see it trending D.

Speaking of prospects, how do Casey's look for 2012? From what I understand his approvals aren't so hot.

[feeblepizza]

Optimistic but realistic

[Yelnoc]

Optimistic but realistic

[tpfkaw]

California would go for the GOP, but not New Mexico?  Connecticut would go for them, but not Washington?

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

If the economy goes further down the drain than it already has, and Obama is massively unpopular due to that and other reasons, then I can see the map being like this

Is this map unrealistic? Probably, but nothing's impossible in American politics, and if Obama's unpopularity borders on Carter or Bush levels, than I can see something like this happening. I mean, who ever imagined in 2006 that the Democrats were going to win North Carolina and Indiana, of all states?

[pbrower2a]

If the economy goes further down the drain than it already has, and Obama is massively unpopular due to that and other reasons, then I can see the map being like this

Is this map unrealistic? Probably, but nothing's impossible in American politics, and if Obama's unpopularity borders on Carter or Bush levels, than I can see something like this happening. I mean, who ever imagined in 2006 that the Democrats were going to win North Carolina and Indiana, of all states?

Further down the drain? The economic news always includes statistical noise. Because we have no speculative boom and are unlikely to have one for a long time, we have almost no potential for an economic meltdown.   

Anything is possible, to be sure, but I would prefer that the suggestion be of a scandal that blows up at the worst possible time. An international disaster? George W. Bush got away with Afghanistan and Iraq long enough to get re-elected.

It is about as likely that the Republican nominee will say unwise things about the LDS (Mormon) Church and lose Utah.