CA: Survey USA: Fiorina defeats Boxer by 5

[Torie]

LOL. What will the usual suspects do now? I mean this ain't Ras.  Are "they" beginning to panic Sam? Btw, I didn't see this poll before pounding out my 60% odds number of a GOP takeover of the House. I mean, assuming the poll is worth a sh**t, when someone like Fiorina in California can be ahead of the seemingly here forever till I die and beyond, Boxer, there is something in the water, no?

[Torie]

I am not sure individual personalities matter that much anymore, or their bios. It is a very odd election cycle. I mean, think Angle (why bother mentioning Rand when we have Angle?). So the "fact" that Fiorina is superficial, and a bit of a sphinx really, and a crap manager of HP, and vain (without any reason to be), and kind of weird, and disingenuous (well most politicians are that way, so scratch that) and so on, may not matter - much at all. It's all about anger and fear baby.

[Torie]

Fiorina is carry LA county by 2%. That means that yes, Hispanics and Asians have moved heavily to the GOP if this poll is at all accurate.

[Torie]

Fiorina is carry LA county by 2%. That means that yes, Hispanics and Asians have moved heavily to the GOP if this poll is at all accurate.

I don't know what Survey USA defines as "Greater L.A", but it's not just LA County.  SUSA has 4 regions - Greater LA, Bay Area/Northern Coast, Central Valley and Inland Empire.  Greater LA is supposed to be about 37% of the electorate.  LA County has 27% of the state's population.  So other counties must be included - probably Orange, Ventura and San Diego and who knows what else how far up the coast (I'd include Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo and put coastal counties to the north of that in San Francisco/Northern Coast).  I'd assume San Bernadino and Riverside would be considered "Inland Empire" (probably with Imperial and perhaps a few other counties on the Nevada border), and the Central Valley would start at Kern.

Fiorina's lead in Greater LA is actually down from +5 points (so net -3).   Her lead was also down net 5 in the Inland Empire .  Where Fiorina's lead significantly increased was the Central Valley - from +7 to +21.  She was also net +3 in the Bay Area/Northern Coast - but still trails Boxer significantly up North.

Probably just Orange County. Orange has about 8.5% of the population (3,025,000 million), and about 10% of the state's voters.

Addendum: OK, Greater LA also includes Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. SUSA goes on population for weights, not registered, or better still,  likely, voters, which is odd.

[Torie]

The collapse of Dem Hispanic support in California will be huge news if it actually transpires.

It reminds me of when Eisenhower got about a third of the black vote in Chicago in 1956, against Adlai "I don't care much about civil rights" Stevenson. That was a big wake up call for the Dems, and they realized that they could no longer get away with excessively catering to the Tory Southern wing of its party, and that it was time to get serious about doing something about Jim Crow and the truncation of the rather fundamental  rights blacks as citizens in general. In this case, I don't know what the Dems would do. Maybe hope it is just a blip in an unusual election year maybe. Or maybe not.