CA: Survey USA: Fiorina defeats Boxer by 5 (user search)
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  CA: Survey USA: Fiorina defeats Boxer by 5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA: Survey USA: Fiorina defeats Boxer by 5  (Read 6629 times)
cinyc
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« on: August 12, 2010, 07:28:01 PM »

LOL. What will the usual suspects do now? I mean this ain't Ras.  Are "they" beginning to panic Sam? Btw, I didn't see this poll before pounding out my 60% odds number of a GOP takeover of the House. I mean, assuming the poll is worth a sh**t, when someone like Fiorina in California can be ahead of the seemingly here forever till I die and beyond, Boxer, there is something in the water, no?

The handwriting has been on the wall since the 2009 off-year general election.  The 2008 level of turnout among key Democratic-leaning groups simply isn't there.

This poll may be an outlier - but never mind the House.  With Boxer, Feingold and Murray in close races, Republican control of the Senate is a real possibility (assuming Lieberman jumps ship if Republicans get to 50). 
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2010, 01:23:27 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2010, 01:34:21 AM by cinyc »

Fiorina is carry LA county by 2%. That means that yes, Hispanics and Asians have moved heavily to the GOP if this poll is at all accurate.

I don't know what Survey USA defines as "Greater L.A", but it's not just LA County.  SUSA has 4 regions - Greater LA, Bay Area/Northern Coast, Central Valley and Inland Empire.  Greater LA is supposed to be about 37% of the electorate.  LA County has 27% of the state's population.  So other counties must be included - probably Orange, Ventura and San Diego and who knows what else how far up the coast (I'd include Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo and put coastal counties to the north of that in San Francisco/Northern Coast).  I'd assume San Bernadino and Riverside would be considered "Inland Empire" (probably with Imperial and perhaps a few other counties on the Nevada border), and the Central Valley would start at Kern.

Fiorina's lead in Greater LA is actually down from +5 points (so net -3).   Her lead was also down net 5 in the Inland Empire .  Where Fiorina's lead significantly increased was the Central Valley - from +7 to +21.  She was also net +3 in the Bay Area/Northern Coast - but still trails Boxer significantly up North.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2010, 05:26:51 PM »

But, as Vepres pointed out, the crosstabs are ridiculous.

You can't really make any judgments based on one individual crosstab, especially one like "black," which only encompasses 7% of the total sample. You're looking at margins of errors in the double digits.

Which is how we know the poll wasn't made up.  Something is seriously wrong if all the crosstabs come out perfect.
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