The Youth Vote

[khirkhib]

Despite it being said that the youth didn't show up to this election, the 2004 Election had the highest  turnout precentage of youth (18-30) since 1972. 

What would the electoral map look like if only the youth vote had been counted.


Kerry: 375 Bush:163
Here's looking to the future.

[A18]

The future when people die young?

This is like saying, "Teens have more traffic accidents. Therefore, in the future people will crash more."

[khirkhib]

The future when people die young?

This is like saying, "Teens have more traffic accidents. Therefore, in the future people will crash more."

Yeah that would be a pretty dumb thing to say.  Glad I didn't say that.  Strawman.

[J-Mann]

And when those young idealists have kids of their own and start paying taxes, they won't be so overwhelmingly idealistic any more.

Wishful thinking, buddy.  The election is NOT up to 18-30 year olds.  They can't even get out to vote.

[khirkhib]

But that is the media lie J-man. 
Highest youth turn out in 30 years is impressive.
Here's to idealism.
Why should we compromise our ideals?

[J. J.]

It wasn't the highest proportional turnout.  It was unchanged since 2000 (and possibly lower than 1992).

[khirkhib]

I don't know if that is confirmed or accurate.  Show me the hard numbers.

[A18]

You're right. Saying that would be idiotic. Exactly as idiotic as saying there will be more Democrats in the future.

When people get older, they're better drivers. When people get older, they're better voters.

[J-Mann]

Don't compromise your ideals, but having all this hope pinned on the youth of America was just a pipe dream.  So a few more voted this time around, eh?  Big deal.  It made little difference.

I read a letter from Howard Dean (sent to a friend of mine) and he tried to put a positive spin on the elections, and from reading his letter, you'd think that the Democrats obliterated Republicans.  He said, "more Americans voted against George Bush than any sitting president in history."  Yeah, it's true, but it matters very little when 3.5 million more Americans than that voted FOR the President.

All I'm saying is that this election (despite a slightly higher turnout) will just reinforce why politicians don't spend time pandering to the youth vote.  Here's something I said way back in January of this year (quoted from my website):

Liberals: say all you want about Bush's intelligence, but he never felt compelled to use the word f*** in a Rolling Stone interview in order to appear "hip" to a younger crowd. Bush, as far as I know, never gave a Rolling Stone interview anyway, and with good reason: it'd be flat out pandering to a group of people who don't vote.

IF ONLY 18-30 year olds were the only ones voting...yeah, maybe the Dems can think about that for the next four years.  The percentage youth vote, by the way, was the same as in 2000.  Raw numbers were up because around 60 percent of eligible voters actually voted, but the youth did not significantly change.

[J. J.]

I don't know if that is confirmed or accurate.  Show me the hard numbers.

Here is the story:

No youth surge
An estimated 9 percent of voters Tuesday were 18 to 24, about the same proportion of the electorate as in 2000, exit polls indicated. The youth vote accounted for 17 percent of turnout when broadened to the 18-to-29 age group, also about the same share as in the last presidential race.

Still, the actual number of young voters was up, given that overall voter turnout was higher.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6399980/

Wake up and smell the coffee.

[danwxman]

In the ten most contested states, youth turnout was up 18%

[Alcon]

I find the results in Maine, New Mexico, Arizona, and Mississippi very interesting. Especially Maine - can someone explain that? The same with Mississippi, in fact.

[shankbear]

The yoots sat at home and rolled another joint, watched SpongeBob, ate their weight in Ding Dongs and forgot to vote.  They didn't give a fat rat's ass about the election.  MTV didn't phase the youth vote any more than P.Duddy.

[No more McShame]

I believe that Winston Churchill said something to the effect that if you're 20 and a conservative, you don't have a heart.  If you're 40 and not a conservative, you don't have a brain! :-)

[A18]

I'm in the first category.

[No more McShame]

Same here ;-)

[A18]

Well, actually I'm not even 20 yet. But I'm closer to it than 40.

[kwab]

It just seems like the Youth didn't really come out because EVERYONE came out in droves to vote.

With some simple math, there were some 2 million more 18-29 year olds that voted in this election than in 2000.  That'd have a big affect if it occured during any other year with average turnout.

[J-Mann]

That'd have a big affect if it occured during any other year with average turnout.

But it wasn't average turnout, so khirkhib's point is null and void.  The original post's Electoral Map (what if only the youth voted) is ridiculous and only wishful thinking on the part of the Dems.

[khirkhib]

In the ten most contested states, youth turnout was up 18%

But it isn't null and void.  Youth turned out in contested states.  When the issues are important they come.  Not as much as I would like them too but I think that it shows that youth can be addressed.

[dougrhess]

People, get a grip on simple math here. Increase in turnout will not necessarily mean change in proportion. Youth turnout could markedly increase in the next 50 years, but as the nation's demographic distribution tilts towards the older, the proportion will get smaller. Likewise and increase in the number of youth voters tells you nothing about the increase in the number of youth eligible.

Proportion is not really something a GOTV campaign can do anything about. GOTV might increase votes, but success is if it increases rates. 

So, where's the data on eligible by age range?

[dougrhess]

That'd have a big affect if it occured during any other year with average turnout.

But it wasn't average turnout, so khirkhib's point is null and void.  The original post's Electoral Map (what if only the youth voted) is ridiculous and only wishful thinking on the part of the Dems.

They aren't saying gee what a great strategy, only allow youth to vote. It's just a gimmicky map saying see how strong Kerry support was among youth. If you're pro-Kerry or not, the map is meant to show how different the youth vote is from the rest. Hence, message to non-voting youth: you coulda been a contender. Message to voting youth: don't give up.