KY-03: Braun Research/cn|2: Yarmuth cruising
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  KY-03: Braun Research/cn|2: Yarmuth cruising
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Author Topic: KY-03: Braun Research/cn|2: Yarmuth cruising  (Read 3077 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: August 12, 2010, 08:11:06 PM »

http://politics.mycn2.com/2010/08/12/cn2-poll-shows-john-yarmuth-with-a-23-point-lead-in-3rd-congressional-district/

John Yarmuth (D) - 52
Todd Lally (R) - 29
Michael Hansen (I) - 1

In case you're wondering, "cn|2 Politics is the political news website for Insight Communications’ new Kentucky-themed channel, Commonwealth Network on Channel 2, or cn|2."
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Vepres
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2010, 08:14:19 PM »

Ouch, I'll probably have to change my rating.
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change08
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2010, 08:17:38 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2010, 08:39:58 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nah, the Republicans could easily win 40-50 seats and still lose this one. It's worth keeping an eye on, though, since Lally pulled in quite a bit of money last quarter, while Yarmuth hasn't been bothering to fundraise much.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2010, 08:41:57 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nope. The black percentage is "too" high.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2010, 08:42:33 PM »

This is one district that is getting safer and safer for Democrats, as Conservative, white suburbanites continue to flee west to KY-02, north to IN-09, or east to KY-04.  This leaves KY-03 as a blacker and more liberal district.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2010, 08:43:02 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nope. The black percentage is "too" high.

You could say the same for OH-01, which is a similar district.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2010, 08:48:33 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nope. The black percentage is "too" high.

You could say the same for OH-01, which is a similar district.

Yes, but the whites are very conservative in Hamilton County (even the German Jews who have been around town since the 1840's, with a lot of the working class whites from the uber GOP mountains of the non coal mining areas of Kentucky which stayed loyal to the union, to boot), and that is not so much the case with Louisville.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2010, 08:50:25 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nope. The black percentage is "too" high.

You could say the same for OH-01, which is a similar district.

Yes, but the whites are very conservative in Hamilton County (even the German Jews who have been around town since the 1840's, with a lot of the working class whites from the uber GOP mountains of the non coal mining areas of Kentucky which stayed loyal to the union, to boot), and that is not so much the case with Louisville.

The more conservative parts of Hamilton county are actually in OH-02.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2010, 06:13:07 PM »

The richest parts of Hamilton County (Indian Hill in particular) are in OH-2 (slightly more conservative than the County at large), but that loss to OH-1 is more than counterbalanced by the slug of Butler County in OH-1, that the GOP appended to the district in its Gerrymander.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2010, 10:10:11 PM »

The richest parts of Hamilton County (Indian Hill in particular) are in OH-2 (slightly more conservative than the County at large), but that loss to OH-1 is more than counterbalanced by the slug of Butler County in OH-1, that the GOP appended to the district in its Gerrymander.

Yeah.  John Kerry actually won the Hamilton county part of OH-01, but lost the district by two points because of the Butler county portion.  Im surprised that Cincinatti politicians didnt try to block the addition of Butler county since it violates the communities of interest principle in a district that has traditionally been the Cincinatti and Hamilton county only district.
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Bo
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2010, 01:28:59 PM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Not really. Obama won this district by 12% in 2008. And Yarmuth is pretty popular here. There are a lot of seats where Obama did worse that the GOP can take if they want to recapture the House.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2010, 06:12:45 PM »

Jack Conway must carry at least 58% of the vote here to win.
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JoeyJoeJoe
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2010, 07:59:17 AM »

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nah, the Republicans could easily win 40-50 seats and still lose this one. It's worth keeping an eye on, though, since Lally pulled in quite a bit of money last quarter, while Yarmuth hasn't been bothering to fundraise much.

Just like they did in 1994, when the seat was open.  Republicans had to wait until 1996, when Bill Clinton was winning the state and carrying the district, to take it.
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